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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Switch 2021 sales (calendar year)

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How much will Switch sell this calendar year?

under 20 million. I am a troll. 1 1.64%
 
20 - 23.9 million, a large drop from 2020 3 4.92%
 
24 - 25.9 million, a modest drop from 2020 9 14.75%
 
26 - 27.9 million, a slight drop from 2020 26 42.62%
 
28.0 - 28.9 million, about the same as 2020 11 18.03%
 
29.0 - 30.9 million, a slight increase 2020 6 9.84%
 
31 - 32.9 million, a modest increase 2020 2 3.28%
 
33 - 40 million, a large increase from 2020 0 0%
 
over 40 million. I am a troll. 3 4.92%
 
Total:61
javi741 on 31 October 2021
ShadowLink93 said:
javi741 said:

In terms of shipments, so far the Switch sold 4.72 & 4.45 the first 2 Quarters of the calender year bringing the total to 9.17 so far this year. I'm expecting another 4 Million shipped in Q3 then 11 Million for the holiday quarter. Which adds up to around 24 Million Sold for this calendar year

4 million is a little low for me and would be very dissapointing. Nintendo Always ship way more than they sell in Fiscal Year Q2 in preparation for the holiday build up. Looking at vgchartz sell through data for FYQ2 confirms this, this is sell through figures versus shipments for all Q2's for NSW. 2017 sold 2.13m shipped 2.93m, 2018 sold 2.48m, shipped 3.19m, 2019 sold 3.41m shipped 4.80m, 2020 sold 5.14m shipped 6.86m, 2021 sold 3.87m shipped 5.30m?. As you can see shipments are always 30% to 40% higher than sold through. Q2 is the only quarter where shipments always outnumber sold through and by a big margin. In 2019 NSW sold through 460k less than this year but still shipped 4.80m, if this trend continues then the 3.87m sold through vgchartz estimates should translate into about 5.30m shipped. And i also hope the holiday does more than 11m, i'm hoping it will break the 11.89m record of DS and this is probably the last chance Switch has of breaking it before sales inevitably taper off.

Good point, I'll raise my forecast to 25 Million now



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The_Liquid_Laser on 01 November 2021

I definitely expect Q2 shipments to be down YoY. There was clearly a dip in sales leading up to OLED release.



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PSwii60 on 01 November 2021

Down overall. Having had supply issues may be the illusion of demand Nintendo is hoping for to boost the sales this upcoming holiday so optimistically, high 26m.



Zippy6 on 04 November 2021

With the new quarter details from Nintendo it seems likely VGC numbers are about to be adjusted down.

Nintendo has adjusted down their shipment forecast for this year from 25.5m to 24m. They forecast slightly lower shipments YoY for the next 2 quarters.

Forecast is 108.59m by March 31st 2022, Pokemon Arceus launches early next year so we could expect higher than normal shipments in that quarter but let's say 2m for that quarter so 106.59m shipped by the end of 2021.

With a similar gap between shipped and sold as last year the final figures would look like this

Sold-Through: 103.78m (26.72m in 2021)
Shipped: 106.59m (leaving 2m for the next quarter, which did 2.1m last year)

The shipment gap could be a little smaller this year but sales above 28m now seem incompatible with the shipment forecast we have.

Sales of 29.5m would mean sell-through = shipments and would be completely impossible to obtain.



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database

Zippy6 on 08 November 2021

Switch had a very slight adjustment down for previous weeks after the shipments (only 30k).

Current 2021 Sales: 16,665,724
2020 Sales Aligned: 18,171,135

So 2021 is down YoY by 8.3% and 1,505,411 units.

If it remains 8.3% down by the end of the year 2021 sales would be 25.86m

It would need to outperform 2020 in Nov/Dec to finish with above 26.6m.



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database

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Kakadu18 on 08 November 2021

25-26mil seems reasonable then. Especially after Nintendo adjusting their own projection downwards.



Zippy6 on 02 December 2021

Feeling like my 26-26.5m figure was too high, but could still end up right. It's all down to December.

Week Switch 2020 Total Switch 2021 Total Difference
1 319,898 476,208 156,310
2 597,460 913,266 315,806
3 845,578 1,273,694 428,116
4 1,098,896 1,629,431 530,535
5 1,391,844 1,994,883 603,039
6 1,660,556 2,494,674 834,118
7 1,891,272 2,920,227 1,028,955
8 2,136,493 3,333,132 1,196,639
9 2,422,227 3,761,749 1,339,522
10 2,803,618 4,186,873 1,383,255
11 3,837,011 4,665,551 828,540
12 4,630,355 5,447,805 817,450
13 5,206,952 5,974,359 767,407
14 5,792,784 6,374,010 581,226
15 6,297,110 6,765,033 467,923
16 6,841,845 7,162,513 320,668
17 7,286,507 7,616,588 330,081
18 7,889,358 7,973,458 84,100
19 8,273,018 8,361,756 88,738
20 8,643,776 8,732,986 89,210
21 9,060,967 9,062,571 1,604
22 9,432,681 9,410,561 -22,120
23 9,790,195 9,744,426 -45,769
24 10,166,463 10,078,032 -88,431
25 10,562,450 10,416,115 -146,335
26 10,912,652 10,766,455 -146,197
27 11,271,775 11,093,784 -177,991
28 11,674,339 11,407,146 -267,193
29 12,095,302 11,707,980 -387,322
30 12,432,090 11,990,633 -441,457
31 12,877,869 12,282,147 -595,722
32 13,303,862 12,592,080 -711,782
33 13,661,278 12,883,603 -777,675
34 14,033,177 13,167,421 -865,756
35 14,399,478 13,447,006 -952,472
36 14,797,870 13,735,010 -1,062,860
37 15,303,600 14,008,488 -1,295,112
38 15,708,077 14,267,789 -1,440,288
39 16,111,211 14,516,647 -1,594,564
40 16,642,217 15,378,561 -1,263,656
41 17,162,266 15,756,455 -1,405,811
42 17,652,453 16,230,934 -1,421,519
43 18,171,135 16,655,449 -1,515,686
44 18,771,073 17,134,413 -1,636,660
45 19,388,949 17,663,045 -1,725,904
46 20,136,490 18,412,716 -1,723,774
47 21,817,231
48 23,074,019
49 24,475,118
50 25,995,554
51 27,153,548
52 27,834,889



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database

ShadowLink93 on 02 December 2021
Zippy6 said:

Feeling like my 26-26.5m figure was too high, but could still end up right. It's all down to December.

WeekSwitch 2020 TotalSwitch 2021 TotalDifference
1319,898476,208156,310
2597,460913,266315,806
3845,5781,273,694428,116
41,098,8961,629,431530,535
51,391,8441,994,883603,039
61,660,5562,494,674834,118
71,891,2722,920,2271,028,955
82,136,4933,333,1321,196,639
92,422,2273,761,7491,339,522
102,803,6184,186,8731,383,255
113,837,0114,665,551828,540
124,630,3555,447,805817,450
135,206,9525,974,359767,407
145,792,7846,374,010581,226
156,297,1106,765,033467,923
166,841,8457,162,513320,668
177,286,5077,616,588330,081
187,889,3587,973,45884,100
198,273,0188,361,75688,738
208,643,7768,732,98689,210
219,060,9679,062,5711,604
229,432,6819,410,561-22,120
239,790,1959,744,426-45,769
2410,166,46310,078,032-88,431
2510,562,45010,416,115-146,335
2610,912,65210,766,455-146,197
2711,271,77511,093,784-177,991
2811,674,33911,407,146-267,193
2912,095,30211,707,980-387,322
3012,432,09011,990,633-441,457
3112,877,86912,282,147-595,722
3213,303,86212,592,080-711,782
3313,661,27812,883,603-777,675
3414,033,17713,167,421-865,756
3514,399,47813,447,006-952,472
3614,797,87013,735,010-1,062,860
3715,303,60014,008,488-1,295,112
3815,708,07714,267,789-1,440,288
3916,111,21114,516,647-1,594,564
4016,642,21715,378,561-1,263,656
4117,162,26615,756,455-1,405,811
4217,652,45316,230,934-1,421,519
4318,171,13516,655,449-1,515,686
4418,771,07317,134,413-1,636,660
4519,388,94917,663,045-1,725,904
4620,136,49018,412,716-1,723,774
4721,817,231
4823,074,019
4924,475,118
5025,995,554
5127,153,548
5227,834,889

I thought Vgchartz 2020 total was 28.2m? Has that number just recently been adjusted down to 27.8m?



ShadowLink93 on 02 December 2021

I think Calendar year shipped will be around 24.5m and vgchartz sell through will be around the high 25's or low 26's so between 25.75m to 26.25m.



Zippy6 on 02 December 2021
ShadowLink93 said:

I thought Vgchartz 2020 total was 28.2m? Has that number just recently been adjusted down to 27.8m?

I think it was adjusted down to 27.8m many months ago now. But it's not like it's easy to see yearly figures anywhere as the yearly "legacy" charts stop in 2018, so most people will never know about the adjustments when the only way to get the yearly figure is to add all the current weekly data together lol.



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database