With the new quarter details from Nintendo it seems likely VGC numbers are about to be adjusted down.
Nintendo has adjusted down their shipment forecast for this year from 25.5m to 24m. They forecast slightly lower shipments YoY for the next 2 quarters.
Forecast is 108.59m by March 31st 2022, Pokemon Arceus launches early next year so we could expect higher than normal shipments in that quarter but let's say 2m for that quarter so 106.59m shipped by the end of 2021.
With a similar gap between shipped and sold as last year the final figures would look like this
Sold-Through: 103.78m (26.72m in 2021)
Shipped: 106.59m (leaving 2m for the next quarter, which did 2.1m last year)
The shipment gap could be a little smaller this year but sales above 28m now seem incompatible with the shipment forecast we have.
Sales of 29.5m would mean sell-through = shipments and would be completely impossible to obtain.
