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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - OLED Switch - Closing poll, thank you for participating - Christmas week (Week 12 was 1.083M)

 

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I personally think that's a bit optimistic and I'm kind of curious how global supply constraints on certain components could possibly restrict these numbers further.

I think it'll probably launch less than 1m. I don't feel like hardware sales number will have too much of a substantial jump because of the OLED design.



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I think the OLED model will lead to rising Switch sales, but I don't expect wonders at this point of its life cycle. Most people should buy the OLED model who would have bought a Switch anyway. There aren't that many people who already own a Switch and will upgrade to the OLED model, I guess. And mainly these people would cause rising sales numbers. It would be a completely different case if the new model would have had more power. There's no reason to upgrade to the OLED model, if you usually use your Switch in TV mode.

I expect Switch doubles sales at OLED opening week (between 600-700k) and sales should stay around 400k (a bit higher than currently) and rise until Black Friday. There's actually no real system seller announced for the remaining year. Next year should be different with Zelda, Splatoon, Pokemon Arceus and Bayonetta (well, Bayonetta shouldn't move that much hardware).



siebensus4 said:

I think the OLED model will lead to rising Switch sales, but I don't expect wonders at this point of its life cycle. Most people should buy the OLED model who would have bought a Switch anyway. There aren't that many people who already own a Switch and will upgrade to the OLED model, I guess. And mainly these people would cause rising sales numbers. It would be a completely different case if the new model would have had more power. There's no reason to upgrade to the OLED model, if you usually use your Switch in TV mode.

I expect Switch doubles sales at OLED opening week (between 600-700k) and sales should stay around 400k (a bit higher than currently) and rise until Black Friday. There's actually no real system seller announced for the remaining year. Next year should be different with Zelda, Splatoon, Pokemon Arceus and Bayonetta (well, Bayonetta shouldn't move that much hardware).

You'd be surprised by how many people would by the new Switch, even if they are owning one actually. 

And there are 3 system sellers for the remaining of the year:

- Metroid Dread

- Pokémon remake

- Mario Party Superstars



It depends how much stock they have tbh but i don't see it crossing a million. I feel like 700-800k would be an amazing launch for a model that isn't so groundbreaking. Metroid Dread might help a bit too since some fans of the franchise or genre might not have a Switch just yet.

It will for sure boost the sales over the rest of the year tho. It can retake it's lead over 2020 imo.



I really don't see OLED bumping desire for Switch anymore than we are seeing. I think it will still sell 300-350k units and it will increase as we get closer to the holidays. The increase will have next to nothing to do with OLED. Not trying to dump on the hype train as I love Nintendo, but we are talking about a revision that will appeal to a very small niche of hardcore gamers arriving 4.5+ years after the console came out. If the past few decades are any indication, the market will start treating the Switch like it's in its sunset years regardless of how illogical some fans' assumptions are that it will be an abnormally long generation. The 6-year cycle is staying, people. Not only should you not be annoyed by that, but you should be glad. We will all be happier playing on a FULLY upgraded Switch 2 in 2023 than any of us would be playing Switch OG/Switch Lite/Switch OLED until 2025. I could be wrong, and I'd be quite down about that, as I'm tired of the Switch handling 3rd party games so poorly and tired of it feeling aged. I want something new and powerful that can handle at least PS4 level games with ease on the go.



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Probably a little bit over optimistic, but I'll go with 700-800K option. OLED will take around 500K of these sales.



 

Anyone know how much the Lite model sold in it's opening week?



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Anyone know how much the Lite model sold in it's opening week?

596k and 468k week after, from 250k week before. FY20 median prior the launch = 195k, so around 200% increase. At the moment the FY22 median = 333k (mind you, there are still 2 weeks of data needed).

Considering this plus few other factors (which I've listed below), I voted for 1M - 1.25M.

For and against the SW OLED launch sales increase, compared to Lite:

- Lite was cheaper than the base one, OLED is more expensive (against)
- Lite was considered an additional system, rather than the main one (for)
- Base Switch model still sells better than the Lite one (for)
- ... however, Lite is very popular as a base system in a younger audience (against)
- Switch as a brand is more popular now than it was two years ago (for)
- There are a lot of Switch users which would like to upgrade their ageing OG Switches (for)
- Scalpers for sure will pump the initial numbers. This wasn't such a widespread issue in 2019 (for)
- First batch might be limited due to chip shortages/production/supply issues (against)

Last edited by Kristof81 - on 06 October 2021

Kristof81 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Anyone know how much the Lite model sold in it's opening week?

596k and 468k week after, from 250k week before. FY20 median prior the launch = 195k, so around 200% increase. At the moment the FY22 median = 333k (mind you, there are still 2 weeks of data needed).

Considering this plus few other factors (which I've listed below), I voted for 1M - 1.25M.

For and against the SW OLED launch sales increase, compared to Lite:

- Lite was cheaper than the base one, OLED is more expensive (against)
- Lite was considered an additional system, rather than the main one (for)
- Base Switch model still sells better than the Lite one (for)
- ... however, Lite is very popular as a base system in a younger audience (against)
- Switch as a brand is more popular now than it was two years ago (for)
- There are a lot of Switch users which would like to upgrade their ageing OG Switches (for)
- Scalpers for sure will pump the initial numbers. This wasn't such a widespread issue in 2019 (for)
- First batch might be limited due to chip shortages/production/supply issues (against)

Thanks.

Based on that I voted 700k-800k for OLED first week.



SKMBlake said:
siebensus4 said:

I think the OLED model will lead to rising Switch sales, but I don't expect wonders at this point of its life cycle. Most people should buy the OLED model who would have bought a Switch anyway. There aren't that many people who already own a Switch and will upgrade to the OLED model, I guess. And mainly these people would cause rising sales numbers. It would be a completely different case if the new model would have had more power. There's no reason to upgrade to the OLED model, if you usually use your Switch in TV mode.

I expect Switch doubles sales at OLED opening week (between 600-700k) and sales should stay around 400k (a bit higher than currently) and rise until Black Friday. There's actually no real system seller announced for the remaining year. Next year should be different with Zelda, Splatoon, Pokemon Arceus and Bayonetta (well, Bayonetta shouldn't move that much hardware).

You'd be surprised by how many people would by the new Switch, even if they are owning one actually. 

And there are 3 system sellers for the remaining of the year:

- Metroid Dread

- Pokémon remake

- Mario Party Superstars

There is no big Christmas hit, just two "cheap remake/re-edit" and one "2D spin off"



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