Nintendo has BOTW "2", which could alone top any other list if it’s as good as the first, and the potential is there for it to be even better (sequels usually improve upon their predecessor)…
The therés Triangle Strategy (stupid name) which I’m very interested in because it looks like the first proper spiritual successor to Final Fantasy Tactics, and I loooove the art design from that studio.

But that’s about it for me as far as the Switch is concerned.

Sony has GT7, Horizon Forbidden West, Forspoken and potentially Final Fantasy XVI which are all up their on my most anticipated list.

So, the PlayStation lineup edges it out, but BOTW "2" is making this choice difficult by itself, which is a testament to how great the first game is.

God of War Ragnarok rule them all.

The main point of contention I had was God of War being "massively" bundled (IE. Wii Sports). Otherwise, it would have blown past the 20+ Million lifetime mark & would've sold more than the reported 10+ Million in its launch year. For instance, the PS4 sold over 8.1 Million units in Q3 of 2018, if being massively bundled was the driving point of increased sales for GoW, than Detroit Become Human would've seen a similar sales bump. However, Detroit has sold 6 Million lifetime as of 2021 and that figure includes the PC release. 

Despite Zelda having only one entry selling over 20+ Million, I consider it a massive franchise like God of War, I just don't think it's on another level compared to Sony IP. GT6 is an outlier when it comes to the franchise because it launched on the PS3 shortly after the PS4 launch without a next generation version or even a port down the line. GT Sport sold extremely well as a spinoff despite the "average" reviews. Also, your sales estimate for HZD is extremely conservative considering it sold 10+ Million in its first year, and has racked up sales from the PC version. 

Ultimately it comes down to GT7 versus Splatoon 3. I think God of War Ragnarok & BoTW2 will be close while HFW will grow enough to match Pokemon at its current level. 

1. I think GT is a bigger franchise than Splatoon and GT7 is positioned well to be the best selling game in the franchise. 

2. HZD, TLOU & GOT still have better sales as new IP's than Splatoon or Ring Fit. 

3. Nintendo doesn't make anywhere near the revenue/profit that Sony as a whole does. 

4. Are those third party games on the level of RDR2, GTAV or COD?

5. Nintendo games can only do that because of the lack of competition from titles like GTAV, RDR2, COD, etc. Sony first party contends with third party software that is Nintendo level but will end up doing gangbusters even at a $70 price point. Not to mention, Marvel is one of the biggest brands today because of the MCU, and with the push for Disney+, they could end up passing Nintendo in due time. 

6. Does Nintendo like money? If they do, they definitely prefer massively growing digital sales, since that's 100% revenue/profit for first party software without the middlemen getting a cut. 

1.When Switch 2 come, Splatoon 2's leg can already pass 15mil, let aone Splatoon 3.

2.HDZ is over 10mil, Ring Fit is over 11mi and still selling, Splatoon 2 is over 12mi and still selling. Better in what way???

3.We are talking about video games:

4.Let compare ps4/ps5 SKU sales of 3rd parties games vs Nintendo games sales on Switch then. 

5.Tell that to Mario + Zelda + Pokemon, Sony games grow, Nintendo games grow too.

6. Does Sony like money? If they do, they'd definitely prefer massively growing digital sales + growing physical sales combined together instead just one, since that's 100% revenue/profit for first party software without the middlemen getting a cut. 

The sales between these games is definitely a different discussion from what is your favourite but I feel GOW2/BOTW2/Splatoon 3 are potentially all being overestimated.

Both GOW2/BOTW2 are Major Mask style direct sequels, I don't think they'll make the same splash as their OG versions. Are there any examples of direct sequels of the same generation, reusing assets etc doing bigger numbers than the original long term? Immediately I think of Galaxy 2, Pokemon Black and White 2, Sun and Moon 2. GOW2 will at least benefit from launching on a new platform. I can see Splatoon 3 declining everywhere apart from Japan.

Horizon however I think will jump to new heights as there's a day and night difference in content shown off so far and although original was a hit I think there's plenty room to grow. Pokemon Archeus feels like a wild card.

I agree, I don't really see any of them outselling their previous games, though I must note that BotW2 selling over 20mil or even 25mil doesn't mean outselling the first game, considering it's already at 24mil and on track to top 30mil. So my point is nobody really said it's going to sell more. As for the other two, the previous games are most likely their ceilings.

The idea of being "massively bundled" doesn't necessarily constitute being the same as Wii Sports (which was bundled in almost every single Wii purchase for a large portion of it's life). Obviously not all of that 8.1M contained a God of War bundle (there was also a Spiderman bundle for $200 I believe). Not to mention, there were more bundles with God of War than just the one that contained Detroit. There was also a bundle that had Gran Turismo, The Last of Us and God of War, as well as the aforementioned Horizon, God of War, and Last of Us bundle (this one went as low as $200, even). In addition, the console had a limited edition bundle day one that came with a PS4 Pro for $399. I'm not saying it was the main driver of sales, but you can absolutely bet that all of these bundles likely added millions to the estimate for God of War. 

"I just don't think it's on another level compared to Sony IP"

Stop, I'm stopping you there. I don't know why you think this. Traditionally, Nintendo's IP's have always done extremely well and better than Sony's. Let's look at the PS2 vs DS. I'll even throw a few more consoles in for comparison (3DS vs PS3). I'm doing these consoles based on the amount they sold, of course. 

Look at these graphs. Nintendo games top Nintendo's charts whereas Sony has a few games with third party products. As you said, Sony does have more competition when it comes to AAA third party games, but looking at the sales suggesting that Sony IP is in some different league in comparison to Nintendo is ridiculous. Even on the Gamecube (Sold just over 20M) it's best selling game outsold all of Sony's IP on the PS3 aside from Gran Turismo. Heck, the Windwaker almost outsold God of War 1 on the PS2 and outsold God of War 2. Again, on a platform that sold one seventh of the PS2. Gran Turismo was Sony's biggest and best selling IP until this generation, but GT 6 was outsold by Splatoon 1 (which you say is an outlier) and GT 5 and Sport were outsold by Splatoon 2 (so it isn't just because of outliers). 

Lastly, stating Horizon will be as big as Pokemon is a bold claim. You're essentially suggesting Horizon: FW will double the sales of it's original. I don't think that'll happen. 

Anyway, I think you are looking at a small amount of data and suggesting Sony IP are somehow on Nintendo's level sale wise. This generation they have certainly increased (which is fantastic). The PS4 has three Sony IP in the 20M range, and presumable four to five more above 10M (I'm assuming GT Sport, GoT, TLoU 2 all made it, and I know Horizon did). But we are still in the middle of the Switch's life and they have two games over 30M (one approaching 40M), 6 games above 20M, and 11 games (probably 12 by now with Luigis Mansion) above 10M. Again, this is halfway (maybe more) through the Switch's life. At this point in the PS4's life I don't think there was a single game above 20M. In other words, It's Sony's IP that aren't on the level of Nintendo's IP, not the other way around

Yeah it’s pretty obvious when I mention holiday bundles that Sony had out for 2+ seasons that included GoW, I am not comparing it to the Wii Spirts situation, where Wii Sports was bundled with like every console in the US from launch for a long time. Not even close to the same situation. But without a doubt those holiday bundles added a lot of sales to God of War, and Spider-Man, and Horizon.

 The good point, Sony learned profit is better than sell gangbusters of consoles. Sony game division now focuses on profit machines and not pr achievement. The aggressive slash in the prices hurt Sony more than once. Now sony learned this.