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Forums - Sales - Famitsu sales: Week 38, 2021 - (13th Sept - 19th Sept)

curl-6 on 27 September 2021
FiveOVER said:
curl-6 said:

Rise is due to come to PC before the release of Sunbreak, but I don't think that will cut the game's long terms sales on Switch any more than the PC release of a PS/Xbox game would. In the end different people just have different platform preferences, and some continue to choose Switch over PC. I certainly don't see it selling less than 8.5 million lifetime on Switch.

Platform splits is also dependent on how a game is marketed. It helps that most of the marketing so far highlights the switch version. We'll also have to see how Capcom markets the expansion.

I mean, the announcement of the expansion was the opening of a Nintendo Direct, so I think it's safe to say the Switch till continue to feature prominently in its marketing. It will probably get a spot in the next Direct in early 2022 as well.



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Bofferbrauer2 on 28 September 2021
Chicho said:

Xbox Series X|S sold 4,376 units. That means it is now 36074 ahead of the Xbox One launch aligned. 

And how far is the XS now behind the total sales in Japan of the XBO?



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The_Liquid_Laser on 28 September 2021
Megiddo said:

IcaroRibeiro said:


The reason why it's better to sell directly to customers is because customers buy games, which is right now the only source of money they can get though PS5 as the hardware itself is sold at lost. Shipping them to sell abroad and having no track of who is just straight up bad business decision, we are talking about 1 million PS5 here, about 9% of total hardware sales of PS5, 9% of PS5 sales in grey market Sony can't really track

Are you attempting to say here that those who spend a lot of money to buy scalped PS5s are not going to "buy games"? What the hell do you think they do with them then? 

Ever heard of piracy?



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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My Threads:
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Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
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TruckOSaurus on 28 September 2021
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Megiddo said:

Are you attempting to say here that those who spend a lot of money to buy scalped PS5s are not going to "buy games"? What the hell do you think they do with them then? 

Ever heard of piracy?

I'm not sure there's a strong correlation between people who buy consoles from scalpers and people who pirate their games. PS5 consoles are hard to come by and impatient gamers will resort to buying from scalpers but PS5 games are readily available so the need to pirate them is low.



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Kakadu18 on 28 September 2021
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Chicho said:

Xbox Series X|S sold 4,376 units. That means it is now 36074 ahead of the Xbox One launch aligned. 

And how far is the XS now behind the total sales in Japan of the XBO?

According to famitsu the XOne sold 114k.

The XBS will outsell it soon.



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Megiddo on 28 September 2021
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Megiddo said:

Are you attempting to say here that those who spend a lot of money to buy scalped PS5s are not going to "buy games"? What the hell do you think they do with them then? 

Ever heard of piracy?

From scalped consoles? No, honestly. They are paying far more than retail price for a product. They clearly have no monetary issues and will purchase software. 



src on 28 September 2021
IcaroRibeiro said:
noshten said:

J 

Playstation Ecosystem Hardware(2014-2021):

  1. 2016 - 2.7M
  2. 2014 - 2.52M
  3. 2015 - 2.46M
  4. 2017 - 2.28M
  5. 2018 - 1.87M
  6. 2019 - 1.22M
  7. 2021 - 0.88M
  8. 2020 - 0.79M

Playstation Ecosystem Sofware(2014-2021):

  1. 2014 - 15.15M
  2. 2016 - 14.98M
  3. 2015 - 14.22M
  4. 2017 - 12.28M
  5. 2018 - 11.61M
  6. 2019 - 8.87M
  7. 2020 - 5.49M

Hardware will be up YoY but it's fairly obvious that Software will reach a new low after 2020, I think it's likely that 2021 overall software sales will be below 2.5 million.

At the moment I believe we are at under 1.5 million software. A far cry from what the PS ecosystem was doing at the launch of the PS4 with over 15 million in 2014, majority of which were from third party titles. The impact of PS Ecosystem falling this far behind and majority of AA becoming either exclusive or multiplat on the Switch in 2022 and beyond is putting the Switch into an unprecedented place late into it's life-cycle in Japan. Next year is going to be another strong year for hardware and pretty much guaranteed to be the Software peak due to Splatoon 3, Legends: Arceus, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Breath of the Wild Sequel etc. 

This numbers further give me the insights is not PS5 that are being sold for outside Japan, is just japonese moving away from Sony entirely. We could see from 2018 to 2020 that despite increase in PS4 userbase (up 3.4 million) software sales just kept plummeting (54% decline), I see no reason for Sony software sales not decrease another 25-30% yet again in 2021, although seems like you are predicting decline to be even more dramatic (over 50% in a year)

I believe currently PS5 owners are just the more hardcore adopters of PS4, and the "casuals" PS4 owners started to migrate to Switch slowly after 2018. Sony is basically selling software for the PS4 owners that did not abandoned the system in favor of Switch or are buying because some IPs are not in Switch. 2.5 million software in 2021 for something among ~1.1 million hardware is an awful multiplayer, but the truth is that everyone just haven't realized Sony ratio was already dramatic back in 2019 when they had 8.5 million cumulative hardware sales and only 8.87 million software sales meaning the tie-in ratio for physical games in Japan for PS4 was only slightly above 1. To make my point more clear

2018: Userbase (PS4) 7.3 million. Software sales 11.61 million. Tie ratio 1.59

2019: Userbase (PS4) 8.5 million. Software sales 8.87 million. Tie ratio 1.04 (-34%)

2020: Userbase (PS4+PS5) 9.3 million. Software sales 5.5 million. Tie ratio 0.59 (-43%)

2021: Userbase (PS4+PS5, excluding double ownership) likely 9.3 million again. Software sales 2.5 million (your prediction). Tie ratio 0.26 (-56%)

Most likely PS4 userbase isn't using the device anymore and the real active PS4+PS5 userbase (i.e. people who are buying software and playing games) is probably closer to 2 million. I believe Sony can go as high as having 4 million PS5 sold in Japan, but hardly anything higher than that, the general desertion of PS4 software sales seems the biggest indicator PS5 will have no life in Japan

Horrible analysis.

Besides the obvious omission of digital, PS4 software sales are in line with PS3 as are hardware sales. Software sales are also dependent on the title lineup of the year, 2018 was massive due to MHW which sold 3 million+ alone.

Also tie ratio is done by total hardware sales and total software sales. If you do yearly then its done by yearly hardware sales so:

11.6/1.87 = 6.2 , with digital 14/1.87 = 7.5

Active console users is obviously different to total hardware sold, this is true to every device lol

L M A O

PS5 has sold 1 million in less than a year, somehow 6 years later

after FF16, FF7R2, FF7R3, KH4, DQ12, MHW2, Persona 6, Nier 2, GTA6, COD, RE4R, GT7, Elden Ring, Tales etc etc

it sells 4 million hahahahaha



kirby007 on 28 September 2021

coming from someone that expected the switch fall of a cliff 3 years ago, this post is pure hypocricy



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src on 28 September 2021

The collapse of the home console was apparent 10 years ago. Japanese third parties know it, which is why they have moved onto the far bigger overseas market and are making more money than ever by doing it, Sony knows it, which is why it understands the decline in Playstation, and Nintendo knows it, which is why they no longer make home console's only.

N64 - 4.5M
GCN - 4M
Wii - 12.7M
WiiU - 3.3M

PS1 - 18.8M
PS2 - 21.2M
PS3 - 10.2M
PS4 - 9.4M (no major price cuts below $299)



The_Liquid_Laser on 28 September 2021
TruckOSaurus said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Ever heard of piracy?

I'm not sure there's a strong correlation between people who buy consoles from scalpers and people who pirate their games. PS5 consoles are hard to come by and impatient gamers will resort to buying from scalpers but PS5 games are readily available so the need to pirate them is low.

There is a strong correlation between China and piracy.  IP means absolutely nothing in China.

Megiddo said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Ever heard of piracy?

From scalped consoles? No, honestly. They are paying far more than retail price for a product. They clearly have no monetary issues and will purchase software. 

A scalped PS5 is still a bargain compared to an equivalent powered PC.  These people in China, who are buying from scalpers, could very well be looking for a deal.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox