What ? Don't put words in my mouth please. First of all the topic is my prediction that the switch will make not more than 140M and will begin to drop starting next year and my prediction is also that it will do something around 15M for next year. Anything other than this is just conversation or replies to other people's comments.

The topic is not about what % is being used as a handheld. And also I have never said that switch is no different than PS4 sales.

I just gave an example with PS4 how it dropped in it's last 2 years and that switch will have similar drops. Not just because of PS4, the same were also happening to DS and to Wii. But those were just examples. Also the drop will begin with 2022, it won't be after that.

If switch sells below 140M I will be right and all of you wrong. Cuz when I made my prediction of 140M and that it will start to go down from next year then all of you attacked me. It has nothing to do with the percentage of handheld. Don't shift the goalpost. If that was the point of everyone here then they wouldn't say anything to my original post which was that switch will start going down from 2022. Don't shift the topic in a way you wanted or understand to be. That is your problem.

There is no need for a successor's launch for one console to do drop on it's sales in it's 6th year, after it's peak period has passed. Other consoles have dropped similarly in the past, without necessarily a successor launching in the given year. In the particularly case of Switch I think it will drop because again, age of system, same price for 5 years, new consoles that will be in full stock by then (which will let new people that comes into gaming or want just to buy some system to buy the new ones instead of the old switch) and also the saturation point, because most of the people that wanted switch or have interest in it would already bought it by then. And one more reason is also the pandemic it probably be totally done by next year, whereas it's effect was very very powerful last year, and also had effect on this year as well. It is not impossible too for Nintendo to at least tease the next system which will also stop some buyers.

I added some lines in my previous post, put them here as well. - Also as I already said, the fruits of it's downfall have already started. It's second quarter is down with full million from it's first one, and it's the weakest one since quarter 3 of 2019. I expect Switch to hit 300K weekly by end of august. Starting January I expect numbers not higher than 300k weekly that can possibly reach the range of 200-250K weekly further in the year (without holiday season).

This year switch is making no more than 25. And okay, 18M is not out of the question, although a little optimistic for my expectations but still possible.

I said around 15M so where is the 16M standing it's not very from 18M right? but this is the best performance it can do if Nintendo don't do some surprise 100$ price cut. Then I agree it can even reach 25M for next year as well. However I am doubting it very much they would do so big of a price cut.

Also PS4 was ahead of PS2 sales too in 2019 .. but look what happened.

Wii have been ahead at one point from many systems, DS, even 3DS may have been ahead of PSP, PS3, 360, at one point but look at where it ended ..

PS4 has nothing to do with that. I am just giving it as an example because it is other successful console. I am giving also Wii and DS as an examples.

Also Yes, switch is different consoles. Every console have different characteristics, different prons and cons, different sales, different sales trajectories, however all of the consoles have one thing in common that all of them are going through - demise and death. I am just predicting that this time has come for switch.

And since pretty much every console in the last 10-15 years has died with medium to big drops I am expecting switch to follow as well.

edited last post.

Many consoles in the past have done the same, and next year they fall of a cliff.

We will see 2022

edited last post.

Many consoles in the past have done the same, and next year they fall of a cliff.

We will see 2022

Let's put it that way.

If we had a time machine and could go back to the year before DS fell, or Wii fell or even PS4 fell, everyone you asked here would tell you the same for those same, not because of logic, but because of liking the console, wanting to do more, and also because of the current pace of the given console at the moment. Because in life is the same. When you are up most of the people start to think they are invincible and that they can't go down. They become confident and so on and so on. And then it is very difficult to see and to believe how you from being up will just go down. You don't believe it. But it happens.

DS was being cut why ? because Nintendo did so that the things turn out to be in that way. This is mistake from Nintendo. They did this mistake once, they can do it again.

And okay. something will happen - shift of the choice of most console buyers. 2020 2021 the choice of most people was what ? really. Switch. By 2020 everyone that wanted PS4 or xbox one already bought one. 2021 Most of the people can't get their hands on PS5 or XBSX. But they want to play on something. They get Switch. Without those things Switch would again do great numbers in 2020 and 2021 but would probably be at least 5M down for both years. 2022 will be the first year since 2019 people really would have a valid relevant choice other than Switch to choose. But with that reason, are coming some more that haven't been much of a reasons for the last 2 years as they will be now. Age of the system (people have used to buy new things/generations/tech whatever in the last 10 years as opposite to before where it wasn't so much widespread to always buy the newest thing) saturation point (many people that hadn't have switch - those 50M people since 2019, they already have and have no reason to buy new one again) price - not changed since launch which is leading to being on par with the new gen Series S and just 100$ less than PS4 digital.

Why to get jump on Vita ? The psp was far below DS, they really hadn't competition on the handheld market. Their fault if it was really for the Vita.

Also I've already said it. They could wait to release it till start of 2012, since the vita was launched worldwide then.

Their fault their mistakes. They can do mistakes again. In this case maybe announcing teasing or even releasing successor in 2022. It's all on them.

Wii started dropping in 2009. They had 2 systems back then, and were having 2 systems for the next 2 and a half years. And having all 4 systems in end of 2012. So much far away from when Wii began falling and it's software was stopped.

Sony or Microsoft doesn't rush or stop the success or the software of their systems 2 or 3 years before releasing new ones.

5 years is old. After march Switch is beginning it's 6th year. That's old. Especially in the market these days, where phones get out every 6 months or 1 year, and all of the tech releases very fast. And the switch's old tech inside doesn't really help.

But the new choice on the street is also big factor. Even though Switch is different type of console it is still game console and the new consoles will still lower the switch's sales for the year comparing to what would they've been if there wasn't other choice than switch.

That was one of the reasons (along with the pandemic and some big games) why switch jumped from 13 and 16M in 2017 and 2018 to almost 30M now, because of those consoles being more relevant and looked for back in 2017 and 2018, and almost no interest to them in 2020 and 2021 (and limited stock of new ones).

The home consoles are not so much direct competition as a consoles, as much as they are like a different choice for the mass consumer who doesn't understand very well all the hardware and software differences.

If PS5 and XBSX were in full stock since start of this year, I can guarantee you switch would've been at around 7-8M now, not 11M, and would do 20M for the year at best, not around 25M (or whatever it will)

Also I am not saying they are a problem, but they shrink each other's share on the market little or more.

Therefore If all 3 are in very good place you won't see them making insane numbers.

When Switch is making them it's alone. When PS4 made them was alone. When PS4 began to drop, the Switch started rising. When DS and Wii made them 360/PS3 were doing 10M at best for those years. They began doing close to 15M per year when Wii and DS began to drop.

When PS2 made the high numbers no one made them. When the PS2 began to drop the DS and Wii started to rise.

Every time something is selling really well, other are selling bad or mediocre at best. It's like puzzle.

Now with the next year the PS5 and XBSX are coming full stock and are rising, the switch is going down, for this and for all the other reasons I already said.

And this is just something normal and ordinary I am not bashing Switch or something.

It's just the way things works and are. With every console. In every generation.

Also about the mistakes.. one of the possible mistakes is already done .. Nintendo could and had to release Pro model this year. With this I can agree that the next year sales would've been at least 20M or even had a chance of reaching 25M. However they didn't do it, and that is one thing that will cut the switch's life at least by 1 year (maybe 2) of what will be now and what could've been (and overall end the hopes for DS/PS2 numbers)