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curl-6 on 13 July 2021
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yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

With Switch's 2021 trending similarly to its 2020, (which ended with what, 28 million sales was it?) the only plausible reason for Switch to drop as hard yo claims next year would be if it's successor releases in 2022. This is highly unlikely given Nintendo's repeated statements about the Switch being in the middle of its life and there being no pressing reason to replace it any time soon.

There is no need for a successor's launch for one console to do drop on it's sales in it's 6th year, after it's peak period has passed. Other consoles have dropped similarly in the past, without necessarily a successor launching in the given year. In the particularly case of Switch I think it will drop because again, age of system, same price for 5 years, new consoles that will be in full stock by then (which will let new people that comes into gaming or want just to buy some system to buy the new ones instead of the old switch) and also the saturation point, because most of the people that wanted switch or have interest in it would already bought it by then. And one more reason is also the pandemic it probably be totally done by next year, whereas it's effect was very very powerful last year, and also had effect on this year as well. It is not impossible too for Nintendo to at least tease the next system which will also stop some buyers.

That would be fine for a drop to, say, 18 or 20 million, but when it's on tracking similarly to last year's 28 million this year, 15 million the following year is simply unrealistically low when its appeal is broader than dedicated consoles due to its hybrid nature, it's already tracking well ahead of PS4 and Wii, and it likely won't have the premature replacement that was the only reason DS dropped off so fast.

Basically, none of the reasons that caused other systems to stall passed 100 million apply to Switch.

Rather than a cliff, it will more likely taper off more gradually.