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curl-6 on 14 July 2021
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yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Thank you for the kind words. (Edited post)

The way I see it, when a console falls off a cliff its always for a reason, from software support disappearing overnight on the Wii, to DS being cut short by 3DS; Switch isn't facing any of these things, it's just turning 5 years old in 2022, and still moving at a blazing pace. Something would have to happen to stall this kind of momentum, and I can see no such thing on the immediate horizon.

Personally, I just can't see any factor aside from it being straight up replaced holiday 2022 that could cause a drop of around 10 million year-over-year.

Let's put it that way.

If we had a time machine and could go back to the year before DS fell, or Wii fell or even PS4 fell, everyone you asked here would tell you the same for those same, not because of logic, but because of liking the console, wanting to do more, and also because of the current pace of the given console at the moment. Because in life is the same. When you are up most of the people start to think they are invincible and that they can't go down. They become confident and so on and so on. And then it is very difficult to see and to believe how you from being up will just go down. You don't believe it. But it happens.

DS was being cut why ? because Nintendo did so that the things turn out to be in that way. This is mistake from Nintendo. They did this mistake once, they can do it again.

And okay. something will happen - shift of the choice of most console buyers. 2020 2021 the choice of most people was what ? really. Switch. By 2020 everyone that wanted PS4 or xbox one already bought one. 2021 Most of the people can't get their hands on PS5 or XBSX. But they want to play on something. They get Switch. Without those things Switch would again do great numbers in 2020 and 2021 but would probably be at least 5M down for both years. 2022 will be the first year since 2019 people really would have a valid relevant choice other than Switch to choose. But with that reason, are coming some more that haven't been much of a reasons for the last 2 years as they will be now. Age of the system (people have used to buy new things/generations/tech whatever in the last 10 years as opposite to before where it wasn't so much widespread to always buy the newest thing) saturation point (many people that hadn't have switch - those 50M people since 2019, they already have and have no reason to buy new one again) price - not changed since launch which is leading to being on par with the new gen Series S and just 100$ less than PS4 digital.

DS was cut because Nintendo felt the need to get the jump on the Vita; there is no new competing system to push forward Switch's successor.

Wii's software dried up because Nintendo was having to develop for 4 systems at once due to their split hardware lines; also not so with Switch. And we can already see from what's been announced so far that Switch's software in 2022 is stronger than Wii's 2011.

Switch isn't that old, it will only be turning 5 in 2022, and it won't be hitting saturation point yet next year considering its hybrid nature and its massive breadth of appeal all the way from blue ocean casuals to "hardcore" enthusiasts.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 14 July 2021