As the title says, Can the top 20 in japan reach 100mil, which essentially means an avg of 5mil per game! O.o

For context, we have the 3DS top 20 that totaled just under 60mil and NDS that did  69.50mil. That roughly in the top 20 an avg of 3mil and 3.5mil respectively. NSW right now would need a miracle for such a feat

Some info

FMC - 225.860.000 (1.047 titles)
NDS - 213.820.000 (1.845 titles)
SFC - 194.850.000 (1.398 titles)
GMB - 157.060.000 (1.246 titles)
3DS - 138.080.000 (669 titles)
NSW - 112.220.000 (849 titles

and an example from the 3DS top 20....

Top 20 3DS Software

-5.85mil: ACNL
-4.56mil: PokémonXY
-4.10mil: MH4
-3.94mil: PokemonSM
-3.46mil: PokemonORAS
-3.30mil: YW2
-3.30mil: MHG
-3.07mil: MK7
-2.91mil: SSB3DS
-2.90mil: MH4U
-2.76mil: NSMB2
-2.75mil: YW2:S
-2.70mil: PokemonUSUM
-2.30mil: SM3DL
-2.29mil: YWB
-2.22mil: Tomodachi
-2.00mil: MH3U
-1.88mil: DQXI
-1.80mil: MHGU
-1.60mil: ACHD

-59.69mil Total

And the final part.... the BOLD part!

How can NSW have an avg of 5mil each game in the top 20 in japan? Let’s find out:...

Some games aren’t announced or will maybe even come true, but it’s a gamble in willing to take!

Top 20 NSW (estimate that is conservative)

-12.50mil: ACNH

-7.75mil: SSBU

-6.75mil: MK8D

*6.00mil: PokemonGen9

-5.90mil: PokemonSwSh

*5.55mil: MK10

-5.20mil: Splatoon 2

-5.20mil: Splatoon 3

-4.90mil: Minecraft

-4.50mil: Momotaro

-4.40mil: MHR

-4.30mil: RFA

-3.85mil: PokemonBDSP

*3.80mil: DQXII

*3.75mil: Tomodachi Life

-3.65mil: PokémonLA

-3.15mil: BotW

-3.00mil: MPS

*2.95mil: MHRG

-2.90mil: SMO

total: 100mil

FYI, the current top 20 for NSW is roughly 60mil, meanin it’s already surpassed 3DS

How much did the top 20 games for the 3DS sell combinded in japan?

Same with say... the PS4? and XB1? so we have something to compare it with.
(not just exclusives, but top20 most selling games in japan on each)

*edit:

Ahh there is a 3DS total there as well :) sweet.
yeah NSW is obviously selling much more software than the 3DS ever was.

So its top20 > 3DS top20 imo, seems like a given.

NSW top 20 already surpassed 3DS. Top 20

Might be too much, but I'm not gonna bet against you.

I failed miserably with MHR though, really saw potential there. First time a bold prediction might be wayyyy off :(

Famitsu numbers for the top 20 roughly add up to 45.7 million. So 15 million more for digital sales (one third of the physical) seems reasonable, so I believe your claim we are above 60m by now. 100m seems still a lot, but not impossible. BOTW 2 surely will get past 1 million. Pearl/Diamond and Legend Arceus will probably sell two millions each. So will Splatoon 3. So these four will replace games that are below 1M currently in the TOP 20.

The evergreens will keep on selling, so Nintendo needs to publish another big seller (mario Kart 9, Switch Sports?) and it should be possible to reach 100M with the TOP 20.

Could you post the current Famitsu Top 20 into the OP just to have an idea on where we stand right now?

Things like this really depend on if the Switch 1 will have a normal Nintendo lifecycle (5.5-6.5 years before being replaced) or if the Pro model will extend its lifecycle and for how long. Once Switch 2 is out, unless Nintendo makes all Switch 1 games also available on there day 1, then I would imagine these games will start tanking in sales as people will start ignoring the OG Switch. And that sales dip happening is dependent on when Nintendo replaces the hardware with the next true gen experience.

How are you figuring out (or estimating) the total sales of 3rd party games like Minecraft and Momotaro?