By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - ImpossiBOLD Prediction: Top 20 NSW Games Combined Will Hit 100mil (Japan)

 

Total Amount from the Top 20 will be roughly

100mil 7 38.89%
 
90mil 5 27.78%
 
80mil 3 16.67%
 
70mil 2 11.11%
 
60mil or under 1 5.56%
 
Total:18
Bofferbrauer2 said:
tbone51 said:

FYI, the current top 20 for NSW is roughly 60mil, meanin it’s already surpassed 3DS

Could you post the current Famitsu Top 20 into the OP just to have an idea on where we stand right now?

As I said before, I have made the calculation. I based it on a TOP 35 list from March:

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2021/03/japans_35_best-selling_switch_games_in_the_first_four_years_according_to_famitsu

You can take this and replace number with the current ones. As the last week saw some new releases and pushed out some evergreens from the list, I filled in some numbers from week 25. These are in italics. Also since then Monster Hunter Rise and Mario 3D+Bowser Fury replaced some titles at the end. For the future, if we assume BOTW2, Pearl/Diamond, Legend Arceus and Splatoon 3 all do only half of what their predecessor did, then they all enter the list as well, replacing games at the end.

March listcurrent numbers
Animal Crossing: New Horizons6,625,0266.807.289
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate4,145,9034.318.560
Pokemon Sword/Shield3,955,5544.071.349
Splatoon 23,771,3383.888.454
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe3,656,1403.888.483
Ring Fit Adventure2,346,0982.654.669
Super Mario Odyssey2,208,4752.241.841
Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban!1,846,0392.242.440
Super Mario Party1,818,4051.918.488
Minecraft1,806,9252.019.432
Pokemon: Let’s Go, Pikachu / Eevee1,772,856
Zelda: Breath of the Wild1,771,2351.829.389
Super Mario Maker 21,065,2611.102.573
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe1,031,494
Kirby Star Allies878,800
Luigi’s Mansion 3745,825
Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics630,909734.237
Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun!572,215
Fishing Spirits Nintendo Switch Version566,909
Dragon Quest XI S560,075
Monster Hunter Rise2.272.644
Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury790.477

I striked out the last two, as they are pushed out of the TOP 20 by MonHun and 3D World.

If I add up the current numbers (and the old ones for the games that aren't topping current Famitsu lists) I get: 45,781,515. That is without digital. Assuming one third (15 million) is digital is not too far fetched, so 60 million seems fine. The publishers sometimes release shipped numbers including digital, if you have access to such, you can replace the numbers in the table and make another calculation.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Around the Network
Bofferbrauer2 said:
tbone51 said:

FYI, the current top 20 for NSW is roughly 60mil, meanin it’s already surpassed 3DS

Could you post the current Famitsu Top 20 into the OP just to have an idea on where we stand right now?

9.37mil: ACNH

5.41mil: SSBU

5.34mil: PokeSwSh

4.80mil: MK8D

4.69mil: Splat2

3.20mil: MHR

3.00mil: Momotaro

2.81mil: RFA

2.80mil: Minecraft

2.66mil: SMO

2.52mil: BotW

2.45mil: SMP

2.15mil: PokeLGPE

1.43mil: SMM2

1.31mil: NSMBU

1.20mil: Clubhouse

1.00mil: LM3

1.00mil: Kirby SA

1.00mil: SM3DW

0.96mil: SM3DAS

*Minecraft hit 2mil physical and was digital only a year before physical came out

*MHR is easily over 3.2mil possibly 3.5mil+
SM3DW isn’t official but it’s easily clearing a million

The_Liquid_Laser said:

How are you figuring out (or estimating) the total sales of 3rd party games like Minecraft and Momotaro?

The_Liquid_Laser said:

How are you figuring out (or estimating) the total sales of 3rd party games like Minecraft and Momotaro?

Momotaro was announced by Konami twice. First time I think was shipment and second was sell thru



tbone51 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Could you post the current Famitsu Top 20 into the OP just to have an idea on where we stand right now?

9.37mil: ACNH

5.41mil: SSBU

5.34mil: PokeSwSh

4.80mil: MK8D

4.69mil: Splat2

3.20mil: MHR

3.00mil: Momotaro

2.81mil: RFA

2.80mil: Minecraft

2.66mil: SMO

2.52mil: BotW

2.45mil: SMP

2.15mil: PokeLGPE

1.43mil: SMM2

1.31mil: NSMBU

1.20mil: Clubhouse

1.00mil: LM3

1.00mil: Kirby SA

1.00mil: SM3DW

0.96mil: SM3DAS

*Minecraft hit 2mil physical and was digital only a year before physical came out

*MHR is easily over 3.2mil possibly 3.5mil+
SM3DW isn’t official but it’s easily clearing a million

The_Liquid_Laser said:

How are you figuring out (or estimating) the total sales of 3rd party games like Minecraft and Momotaro?

The_Liquid_Laser said:

How are you figuring out (or estimating) the total sales of 3rd party games like Minecraft and Momotaro?

Momotaro was announced by Konami twice. First time I think was shipment and second was sell thru

I am not really asking about Momotaro specifically.  I want to know, in general, how you determine total sales of third party games in your prediction.  Do you have some physical:digital ratio you are using as an assumption?