ImpossiBOLD Prediction: Top 20 NSW Games Combined Will Hit 100mil (Japan)

[Mnementh]

Bofferbrauer2 said:

tbone51 said:

FYI, the current top 20 for NSW is roughly 60mil, meanin it’s already surpassed 3DS

Could you post the current Famitsu Top 20 into the OP just to have an idea on where we stand right now?

As I said before, I have made the calculation. I based it on a TOP 35 list from March:

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2021/03/japans_35_best-selling_switch_games_in_the_first_four_years_according_to_famitsu

You can take this and replace number with the current ones. As the last week saw some new releases and pushed out some evergreens from the list, I filled in some numbers from week 25. These are in italics. Also since then Monster Hunter Rise and Mario 3D+Bowser Fury replaced some titles at the end. For the future, if we assume BOTW2, Pearl/Diamond, Legend Arceus and Splatoon 3 all do only half of what their predecessor did, then they all enter the list as well, replacing games at the end.

	March list	current numbers
Animal Crossing: New Horizons	6,625,026	6.807.289
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate	4,145,903	4.318.560
Pokemon Sword/Shield	3,955,554	4.071.349
Splatoon 2	3,771,338	3.888.454
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe	3,656,140	3.888.483
Ring Fit Adventure	2,346,098	2.654.669
Super Mario Odyssey	2,208,475	2.241.841
Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban!	1,846,039	2.242.440
Super Mario Party	1,818,405	1.918.488
Minecraft	1,806,925	2.019.432
Pokemon: Let’s Go, Pikachu / Eevee	1,772,856
Zelda: Breath of the Wild	1,771,235	1.829.389
Super Mario Maker 2	1,065,261	1.102.573
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe	1,031,494
Kirby Star Allies	878,800
Luigi’s Mansion 3	745,825
Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics	630,909	734.237
Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun!	572,215
Fishing Spirits Nintendo Switch Version	566,909
Dragon Quest XI S	560,075
Monster Hunter Rise		2.272.644
Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury		790.477

I striked out the last two, as they are pushed out of the TOP 20 by MonHun and 3D World.

If I add up the current numbers (and the old ones for the games that aren't topping current Famitsu lists) I get: 45,781,515. That is without digital. Assuming one third (15 million) is digital is not too far fetched, so 60 million seems fine. The publishers sometimes release shipped numbers including digital, if you have access to such, you can replace the numbers in the table and make another calculation.