| kazuyamishima said: If Nintendo predicted less units shipped for fiscal year 21 compared to FY 20. |
Nintendo's forecasts should be taken with an enormous grain of salt, they are conservative to the point of blatantly lowballing them since 2018.
mk7sx said:
PS2 hit 100M shipped in its 6th full Fiscal Year, in either quarter 25 or 26. Though it should be noted that Sony's quarterly reporting was "production shipments" and not sell-in like they do today. So its a number that precedes sell-in to retailers. NSW will hit 100M shipped almost certainly in this year's holiday quarter, which is Q3 in its 5th full Fiscal Year. That will be quarter 20, so more than a year ahead of the PS2's mark.
|
Weeew the DS really did TANK fast in those last years. It currently has a lead over the Switch but i think this one can catch up a little this year surpassing the 27 millions Quarter of the DS and starting next year it will DESTROY it.
All-Time Console Sales List:
1) PlayStation 2 (PS2) - 157,680,000 (155,000,000+ according to Sony) Mar. 31st, 2012
2) Nintendo DS (DS) - 154,900,000 (154,020,000 according to Nintendo) - Mar. 31st, 2021
3) Game Boy (GB/GBC) - 118,690,000
4) PlayStation 4 (PS4) - 115,550,985 (115,900,000+ according to Sony) - Mar. 31st, 2021
5) PlayStation (PS1) - 102,500,000 (102,400,000+ according to Sony) - Mar. 31st, 2012
6) Nintendo Wii (Wii) - 101,640,000 (101,630,000 according to Nintendo) - Mar. 31st, 2021
7) PlayStation 3 (PS3) - 87,410,000 (87,400,000+ according to Sony) - Mar. 31st, 2017
8) Xbox 360 (360) - 85,800,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9) Nintendo Switch (NS) - 85,273,547 (84,590,000 according to Nintendo) - Mar. 31st, 2021
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With the Switch officially passing the 85 million mark, it is now on pace to pass the Xbox 360 on the week ending May 22nd.
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| kazuyamishima said: If Nintendo predicted less units shipped for fiscal year 21 compared to FY 20. |
Hard to tell with Nintendo, they tend to be very conservative with forecasts, it's likely they will do better but wont admit it until they cant deny it
curl-6 said:
Nintendo's forecasts should be taken with an enormous grain of salt, they are conservative to the point of blatantly lowballing them since 2018. |
Thing is that they admitted they are also having problems with the chips production. But time will tell obviously.
kazuyamishima said:
Thing is that they admitted they are also having problems with the chips production. But time will tell obviously. |
They forecast 18 million for the FY ending March 2020 but ended up shipping 21 million.
They initially forecast 19 million for the FY ending March 2021 but ended up moving 28.8 million.
Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 May 2021
| The_Liquid_Laser said: Back in January, I wasn't sure if Switch could keep up this kind of pace, but now I'm a believer. NSW 2021 is still ahead of NSW 2020 even after facing most of Animal Crossing's biggest weeks. That's amazing! Software in 2020 was all about Animal Crossing and nothing else. Switch basically had several small to medium titles for the rest of the year. NSW 2021 is guaranteed to have better software in its second half compared to NSW 2020. I can't wait to see what they'll reveal at E3. At this point, I'm already convinced Switch will sell 30m+ this year. I just want to know if they are going to sell a bit over 30m or if they'll go several million over that. On top of that there's a new hardware revision on the way. Just think about that. NSW 2021 is already outpacing NSW 2020 during the best Animal Crossing weeks and there is still a hardware revision to come. Switch is definitely setting the annual sales record this year. |
Yeah. Well the only huge thing we know for sure is Pokemon D/P remake. But we know BotW2 and new Switch model are coming at some point in the not too distant future. If we get the trifecta of new model + BotW2 + Pokemon this year 30 million is for sure going down. Even with just Pokemon there's a good chance it sells right around 30 mil. I almost kinda want to see Switch try to hit 30 million just with Pokemon for the holidays, and then see how much it can sell in 2022 with Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, BotW2, new model, and probably another big game - that'd be nuts.
Slownenberg said:
Yeah. Well the only huge thing we know for sure is Pokemon D/P remake. But we know BotW2 and new Switch model are coming at some point in the not too distant future. If we get the trifecta of new model + BotW2 + Pokemon this year 30 million is for sure going down. Even with just Pokemon there's a good chance it sells right around 30 mil. I almost kinda want to see Switch try to hit 30 million just with Pokemon for the holidays, and then see how much it can sell in 2022 with Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, BotW2, new model, and probably another big game - that'd be nuts. |
At this point I am thinking they can sell 30m even if Pokemon D/P is the only big title for the rest of the year and no hardware revision (assuming there are plenty of small to medium titles though). Switch 2021 has already had to go up against almost all of the big Animal Crossing weeks of 2020 and is still up YoY. Switch sold 28.3m in 2020 with weak holiday software and lots of hardware shortages. Considering that + Pokemon this year, I think 30m is guaranteed for 2021.
So if on top of that we add in a hardware revision and another big title, like BotW2 or Mario Kart 9, then we are in one of these situations again where we ask, "how much can they supply?" I do think it is very likely that they are going to have a very strong second half of the year, but it might just be so good that they run out of hardware again. It's somewhat likely that demand will outstrip supply again this year, even with supply significantly over 30m Switches.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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curl-6 said:
They forecast 18 million for the FY ending March 2020 but ended up shipping 21 million. They initially forecast 19 million for the FY ending March 2021 but ended up moving 28.8 million. |
Well that 2021 looks like crazzy lowball but remember thats when covid hit. Everything saw crazzy demand that nobody saw coming.
It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.
| kazuyamishima said: If Nintendo predicted less units shipped for fiscal year 21 compared to FY 20. |
Nintendo originally forecast 19M Switch units for FY2020. They then brought it up three months later to 24M, then again to 26.5. The amount the Switch actually shipped for FY2020 was 28.8M.
In this sense, Nintendo is very likely being purposefully conservative. They can adjust later based on the consistency of demand at month 3 and 6. In addition, even after raising their forecast to 26.5M just in February they still managed to ship 2.3M more consoles than they forecast. In other words, what they are forecasting is not necessarily going to be the end result, so we might never see a decrease.
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