konnichiwa said:
in Europe tho? I feel I always see a bunch of them in stores like Mediamarket in Europe. |
In Europe too. The Switch Lite was more available, but there were stock issues during december.
Metallox said:
What is a reasonable expectation for FY 2022? 22-24 million? |
That seems reasonable to me. Could be broken down like this:
Q1 FY 2022- 3.5 million
Q2 FY 2022- 4.5 million (price cut/revisions/BOTW 2)
Q3 FY 2022- 12 million (DP remakes)
Q4 FY 2022- 3 million
That gets you to 23 million. I know the holiday number is higher than last year's, but this holiday under my prediction has a big game and one released close to the holidays, as well as price cuts/revisions close to the holiday as well. I also figured that the situation with the pandemic will improve by then and thus Nintendo can better meet demand.
Kakadu18 said:
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe sold 4.42 million units. 28.99 million as of September 30th 2020. |
Thanks, I’ll fix my math and hide my shame. =D
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
Dulfite said:
AC Nh sold almost 30 million in less than a year, by a year it may sell 30 million. Wii Sports sold 82.9 million starting from the launch of the Wii until the end. Give AC NH 6 years and let's compare then. |
ACNH will not sell 30mil units this year, lmao. It's already slowing down. More likely is 10mil units this year. In Japan for example, where we get exact weekly numbers it's slowed down significantly.
It sold 22.4mil units from March 20th to June 30th. After that it sold an additional 9mil units. 5mil in each half this year makes sense to me. No game can sell 30mil+ first year and not slow down afterwards.
More than 70% were sold in it's first 3 months and 12 days. I would have agreed with you if ACNH had sold the same in the 4th quarter as it did in the 2nd, but we already saw the slowdown in the 3rd.
Kakadu18 said:
ACNH will not sell 30mil units this year, lmao. It's already slowing down. More likely is 10mil units this year. In Japan for example, where we get exact weekly numbers it's slowed down significantly. It sold 22.4mil units from March 20th to June 30th. After that it sold an additional 9mil units. 5mil in each half this year makes sense to me. No game can sell 30mil+ first year and not slow down afterwards. More than 70% were sold in it's first 3 months and 12 days. I would have agreed with you if ACNH had sold the same in the 4th quarter as it did in the 2nd, but we already saw the slowdown in the 3rd. |
I didn't say ACNH would sell 30 million units THIS year. I was referring to its launch year being close to that.
Great sales for the Switch. Let's hope Nintendo have learned a lot from the Wii and can delay when the moment sales dry up overnight.
| Dulfite said: I didn't say ACNH would sell 30 million units THIS year. I was referring to its launch year being close to that. |
It sold 31 million units in it's launch year, that's not close, it's above that.
Sorry for misunderstanding what you said btw.
Last edited by Kakadu18 - on 01 February 2021
RolStoppable said:
Q4 of the fiscal year is always a bit tricky, because the excess stock from the holiday season can greatly differ from year to year. Last year Switch had its best fiscal Q4 at 3.28m, so that isn't a high bar to beat, but an ongoing problem has been the SKU split where Lite models have been plentiful at retailers. You hear it all the time that the hybrid SKU is in short supply or even sold out, but you never hear that about the Lite. One thing I found interesting when updating my spreadsheet is that the SKU split for the Other region during the holiday quarter was 1.21m for the hybrid, but only 0.09m for the Lite. Looks like the Lite is very unpopular in the rest of the world, because the preceding shipments in calendar year 2020 were only 0.07m, 0.20m and 0.16m, respectively. In any case, Nintendo is going to meet this new 26.5m target, but I am not sure about crushing it (I'll go ahead and define that as "beating the forecast by 1m+ units," so 27.5m+ instead of 26.5m). |
Is the Lite available in all the Other countries? For some reason I thought it wasn't in a bunch of them.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
Kakadu18 said:
It sold 31 million units in it's launch year, that's not close, it's above that. Sorry for misunderstanding what you said btw. |
I thought that was just shipped and not sold?
No problem!
Earth-shattering success for Nintendo in what was (or is one of) the Switch's peak year. 2021 will be the year Switch passes the Xbox 360 and PS3, possibly even the Wii.
Nintendo needs to make Super Mario Party 2. I can't believe that hasn't been announced yet, or that there was no DLC for Super Mario Party.
It's pretty likely Nintendo won't make Mario Kart 9 for Switch. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is the best-selling game on Switch, and Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit has already sold over 1 million units despite its high price tag.
I think Animal Crossing: New Horizons will end up being the best-selling title on Switch. It's only about 2 million shy of Mario Kart, and will also have evergreen sales like that game. Nintendo might even start seasonal bundles with Animal Crossing like they have with Mario Kart.
The high sales of Sword and Shield continue to prove the success of Pokemon. Gen IV remakes are all but guaranteed, and Gen IX on Switch is likely.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)
PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
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