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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo quarterly sales figures update, (To 31st Dec 2020) Switch 79.87m

I feel like I've been waiting for this very report for years now.  It's so satisfying to finally see it.  There is so much great stuff to look at.  Here are some things that jumped out at me.

1) Nintendo is on track to have their best fiscal year ever. The best one so far has been the one ending March 31, 2009.  Here is a comparison:

Nintendo Operating Profit (in billions of yen)

Dec 31 reportend of FY
2009501.3555.2
2021521.1?

Currently they are tracking about 20B yen above their best fiscal year (very roughly $200M USD).  It is very likely we are going to see this is Nintendo's best fiscal year ever when we get to their March 31 report.

2) Nintendo sell-through numbers are wtf? People have already mentioned the hardware totals, but I also want to point out Ring Fit Adventure.  Shipped for this FY is 5.95m while sell through is listed at 3.3m.  Does anyone really believe that there are 2.6 million units of Ring Fit Adventure just sitting on the shelves at the end of the holidays?  My hope is that their reports are merely lagging and they will get more accurate numbers for the March 31 report.


3) Nintendo evergreens are amazing!  These software numbers really blew me away.  Mario Kart, a 6-year old game, outsold anything released so far this fiscal year (so did Animal Crossing, of course).  Nintendo sales are massively up YoY due to a combination of Animal Crossing, COVID, and word of mouth.  But most importantly their first party software just keeps selling.  These evergreens never seem to lose momentum.  Instead they just keep selling like there is no tomorrow. 

There are so many evergreens that I feel there needs to be tiers.  Here is how I see their big sellers that released in a previous FY.  (What they sold so far are in parentheses: This FY/lifetime)

S Rank (will finish the FY with 6m+ shipped)
Animal Crossing (19.4m/31.2m) - Mario Kart was the best selling non pack-in on the Wii and Wii U, but this is on track to pass Mario Kart 8.
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (8.6m/33.4m)
Ring Fit Adventure (6m/8.7m) - Where the hell did this beast come from?

A Rank (will finish the FY with 3-6m shipped)
Zelda: Breath of the Wild (4m/21.5m) - VGChartz has Skyward Sword listed at 3.96m lifetime.  Think about that.
Super Smash Bros Ultimate (4m/22.9m)
Super Mario Party (3.7m/13.8m) - Damn! This is selling like Zelda and Smash Bros.
NSMB U D (3.2m/9.8m) - This is having far better legs than I thought.
Pokemon Sword/Shield (3m/20.4m)
Super Mario Odyssey (2.8m/20.2m)
Luigi's Mansion 3 (2.8m/9.1m) - Luigi has the same legs as Mario.

B Rank (other games that have already sold 1m+ this year)
Splatoon 2 (1.8m/11.9m)
Super Mario Maker 2 (1.4m/6.9m)
Pokemon Let's Go (1m/13m) - Who knew this game was still selling this well?

That is 13 games that are still going strong.  I believe all 13 are going to surpass 10m lifetime.  Most of them are shooting for 20m+.  It's crazy and amazing.



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My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Can we find somewhere the quarter shipments of the PS2 ?



Amnesia said:

Can we find somewhere the quarter shipments of the PS2 ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2_sales

It's sporadic, but you have quarterly there for 2000-Mar2002, then for 2002-Mar2006 there is always an update at the end of FQ3 & FQ4 (aka after Christmas & end of Fiscal Year) but hit & miss for an update for Q1&2. Then after that only an update at the end of the FY.

However if you combine it with spreadysheets from here:
https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/historical/

You can get full quarterly for FY08-11 (open spreadsheet for FY01-11, then go to sheet titled P50- KeyPro (Q))

Unfortunately in the next spreadsheet for FY2012 Sony lumps PS2+PS3+PS4 together so it's not possible to break it down (well apart from PS4 not even releasing till FY2013, but it still lumps PS2+PS3 together)


(n.b. FYI, Sony's fiscal year is dated differently than Nintendo's, currently Sony is in FY2020 which will end March 31st 2021, Nintendo's fiscal year will end on the same date but in reports it is currently FY2021)

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 01 February 2021

Can't wait for it to surpass GBA/ PSP lifetime Sales.



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Some other observations:

- Smash Bros Ultimate has outsold Brawl and Melee combined

- Luigi's Mansion 3 and outsold Luigi's Mansion 1 and 2 combined

- Age of Calamity's sales outside Japan alone are already above the lifetime global sales of Hyrule Warriors 1 on Wii U, 3DS, and Switch combined



After the incredible 2020 Switch sales I now expect the final total to land somewhere between 140-170 million. 140 is the minimum due to it keeping up with the DS well so far and 170 is the max if the second half of the Switch's life is extremely strong. At this point I'd say it has a decent shot at outselling the DS and PS2 and if it's at around 120 million by the end of 2022 which is likely it'll stay doable.



curl-6 said:

Some other observations:

- Smash Bros Ultimate has outsold Brawl and Melee combined

- Luigi's Mansion 3 and outsold Luigi's Mansion 1 and 2 combined

- Age of Calamity's sales outside Japan alone are already above the lifetime global sales of Hyrule Warriors 1 on Wii U, 3DS, and Switch combined

Here's a couple more:

- Super Mario Odyssey becomes just the 5th Mario platformer in history to pass 20 million units sold. The first one since New Super Mario Bros. Wii and the first 3D Mario Platformer to do it. It is now just a mere 380k away from tying Super Mario World on the SNES for 4th place on this all time list, which is ranked as follows:

1. Super Mario Bros (NES) - 40.24m

2. New Super Mario Bros. (DS) - 30.80m

3. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii) - 30.32m

4. Super Mario World (SNES) - 20.61m

5. Super Mario Odyssey (NS) - 20.23m

- Pokemon Sword/Shield, at 20.35 million units sold, is now the 3rd pair of Pokemon games games to pass 20 million.

1. Pokemon Red/Blue/Green - 31.38m

2. Pokemon Gold/Silver - 23.10m

3. Pokemon Sword/Shield - 20.35m

It only needs an additional 2.75 million units to tie Gold/Silver. Pokemon doesn't exactly have a good track record when it comes to legs, but Sword/Shield has gotten a longer shelf life than usual thanks to the Expansion Pass and the fact that they actually skipped a year of releasing new games. So it's legs have been better than most. For comparison's sake, Pokemon X/Y sold through ~74.3% of its total lifetime sales in the FY it released. If Sword/Shield has that same trajectory, then it'll finish ~23.36 million units lifetime; Just enough to pass Gold/Silver. But we'll see.



ANOTHER thing to note:

Switch Software Sales by FY.

FY ending 3/17:
First Party - 3.71 million units
Overall - 5.46 million units (Third Party - 1.75 million units)

FY ending 3/18:
First Party - 38.27 million units
Overall - 63.51 million units (Third Party - 25.24 million units)

FY ending 3/19:
First Party - 63.34 million units
Overall - 118.55 million units (Third Party - 55.21 million units)

FY ending 3/20:
First Party - 84.98 million units
Overall - 168.72 million units (Third Party - 83.74 million units)

FY ending 3/21 so far:
First Party - 83.15 million units*
Overall - 176.10 million units (Third Party - 92.95 million units)*

*One quarter left to go.

Ever since it became obvious that the Switch was going to be a huge success and 3rd parties finally got off their asses and started developing for it, they have slowly but surely closed the gap between 1st and 3rd party sales. Now, this FY is on track to be the first where 3rd Party software sales have exceed 1st Party. And with Monster Hunter Rise set to cap off an incredible Fiscal Year, I think it's a lock at this point.

But even if it isn't I think this is an indicator of how software sales and releases are trending as we now enter the 2nd half of the Switch's life cycle. Now that the system is established as a huge juggernaut and with Nintendo releasing just about all of their major franchises on the system with at least 1-2 entries. Now they're about to enter the process of slowly transitioning on to the next system. Obviously, they have to finish and release the projects they already have in development such as Breath of the Wild 2, the next Pokemon games, and Metroid Prime 4.

But for the most part, the majority of their internal, first party studios are beginning to wrap up their Switch efforts and shifting gears towards Switch 2. And now, that they have proven their meddle, established the Switch as a powerhouse, and 3rd parties are FINALLY starting to show the fruits of their (somewhat rushed) labor and releasing the goods we've been waiting for from them, Nintendo is content with taking a step back and letting 3rd party and indie developers take the lead on Switch development while they ride that wave on to their next system.



Kakadu18 said:

No game can sell 30mil+ first year and not slow down afterwards.

Have you ever heard of GTA V ? Cause it's currently at 135 million copies in 7 years, doesn't seem to slow down