Aww, the Vita was 3rd. So close yet so far.
Plus I don't think the payout system needs changing. I think it's better to have your winnings determined by how much you bet, rather than how much other people bet.
Consider a scenario with just 2 betters. A puts $1000 on option 1, B puts $10 on option 2. If A wins then they only gained $10 from a $1000 bet, way too much risk to be worth it. If B won however they'd win $1000 from a $10 bet, which is crazy!
Hi @Ka-pi96 Your bet was so close and honestly the logic behind it was really good. Unfortunately for you, the DS had a lucky break that allowed it to be #1. It is incredible because the DS sold 5.8M during its streak while the PSV sold .8M during the 10 weeks.
If you are up to it, I would enjoy going back and forth on some ideas for the Betting System, this way we could analyze if there is a need of a proposal at all. But I feel that there could be some things to suggest. The best way is for us to discuss it and form a good proposal for them to review. Obviously every change is very time consuming so it would have to be worth it. Obviously anyone that read this is more than invited to join the discussion, as it would certainly help us get to better ideas.
I like your scenario and this are some of the positive things I see about it.
1) Discourage large Bets: The first thing that comes to mind, is that this betting system is more for fun, being able to win a little money here and there is good, I don't want anyone to go bankrupt by playing these challenges. So a system like I mentioned would really discourage large amounts because people would realize that the risk is not as good as the reward. So having everyone do smaller bets could be a positive thing.
2) Reward based on probability: In your scenario lets assume that the person bet 1000 because it seems like a sure bet, while the person that bet 10 was a bit optimistic. Let's say the bet was who is going to sell more in 2021. Someone would easily bet 1000, while anyone betting on XS would feel like they are very likely going to lose their money. In this case, it is better to reward the Bold and crazy bets. If someone is willing to bet 10 on XS then it makes sense that the reward is high. Basically it rewards based on odds of winning. Just like in roulette, if you bet on color you get only double your money, but if you bet on a number you get 36 times what you bet. On the other hand, someone winning 500 from a sure bet doesn't seem so appropriate.
3) No extra money is created: With the current system, one bet can pay out more than what it took from all the bets, so the system basically creates new money in order to pay. If you simply split the pot, you will have a stable system that will recycle all the bets. This increases the odds of people not being able to Game the system by creating easy bets and always gaining 500. Not that anyone is trying to do that, but it just makes the game more stable.
These are just some of my first thoughts. What do you think? do you see any extra flaws in doing it this way?
Also some features that could be useful would be:
a) dynamic countdown of how many hours left in the bet. Right now if I chose that the bet closes on a certain day, it seems like as soon as it is that day eastern time it closes it. But I am not that sure if that is true. So instead of saying the end date, it could be a countdown that says how many days and hours are left.
b) Add the option to hide answers, this could help the people from simply copying what most people are saying.
c) In the case of my proposal, being able to see how are the odds of each bet (this contradicts a bit with the previous point). But it could be an option to encourage people to make bold predictions.
d) A table of most money earned each month could encourage people to make more bets.
These are just some random thoughts that I would appreciate anyone giving some feedback on. The more perspectives, the better.
Thanks everyone for playing these challenges, I am still trying to figure out what types of questions are more fun to ask. Right now it seems like the Monkey Island idea didn't work out so well, but I think that these number related challenges are more attractive.