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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Nov 29 to Dec 5 - Switch Dominates Cyber Monday Week

Wman1996 said:

Can't believe Xbox Series X/S only outsold PS4 globally by 192 units. That's crazy. It's clearly because of shortages of the Series. I know PlayStation is a more dominant brand, but it's still interesting that a now last-gen console barely loses to a brand new console.

And the Switch only outsold the PlayStation and Xbox so spectacularly because of shortages of the new consoles. Switch probably would've won the week regardless, but maybe only by 100-200k units if there were enough PS5s available.

Hahahahahahaha hahahahahahaha delusion is amazing.

Playstation 5 demand far crushes Switch at any point on it's life cycle. 



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SilenceDeadly said:
Wman1996 said:

Can't believe Xbox Series X/S only outsold PS4 globally by 192 units. That's crazy. It's clearly because of shortages of the Series. I know PlayStation is a more dominant brand, but it's still interesting that a now last-gen console barely loses to a brand new console.

And the Switch only outsold the PlayStation and Xbox so spectacularly because of shortages of the new consoles. Switch probably would've won the week regardless, but maybe only by 100-200k units if there were enough PS5s available.

Hahahahahahaha hahahahahahaha delusion is amazing.

Playstation 5 demand far crushes Switch at any point on it's life cycle. 

Switch is on point for a 28 million year. Something tells me ps5 won’t reach as high as that ever. 



MasonADC said:
SilenceDeadly said:

Hahahahahahaha hahahahahahaha delusion is amazing.

Playstation 5 demand far crushes Switch at any point on it's life cycle. 

Switch is on point for a 28 million year. Something tells me ps5 won’t reach as high as that ever. 

The highest I see PS5 ever selling in a year is 25-26 million. And even then 23-24 million is more likely as a peak.

PS5 has such high demand right now because it's new, it's a PlayStation, and it's the holiday season. 

PS5 will likely sell less in its lifetime than Switch and PS4.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wasn't PS4's peak yearly total 19.8 million?

And now Switch is headed for 28 million.

Hard to see PS5 ever beating PS4's best year by 50%.



I don't think PS5 can easily match NS' peak year either, but it could outsell it lifetime: when XBSS will become the minimum spec for current gen games, both PS5 and XBSX will run them more smoothly and possibly with a little more details, but porting them to NS will become very difficult, so if Ninty wants to keep a good number of multiplat ports, and the good relationships it has again with 3rd party home console games devs and publishers, it will need to release NS2 not too late, so PS5 lifecycle has good chances of being longer, provided that Sony does the final price cut earlier than the still missing PS4 one. Obviously also provided that things go well enough through the whole lifecycle.
Sure, for portable games NS is the unchallenged top, as competition totally surrendered, and those games from 3rd parties plus the whole Ninty offer could allow NS to thrive for a lifecycle as long as the longest lived competitors, but the hybrid concept was invented to recover home console 3rd party support too, it worked quite well and Ninty doesn't want to throw it away again.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


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Alby_da_Wolf said:

I don't think PS5 can easily match NS' peak year either, but it could outsell it lifetime: when XBSS will become the minimum spec for current gen games, both PS5 and XBSX will run them more smoothly and possibly with a little more details, but porting them to NS will become very difficult, so if Ninty wants to keep a good number of multiplat ports, and the good relationships it has again with 3rd party home console games devs and publishers, it will need to release NS2 not too late, so PS5 lifecycle has good chances of being longer, provided that Sony does the final price cut earlier than the still missing PS4 one. Obviously also provided that things go well enough through the whole lifecycle.
Sure, for portable games NS is the unchallenged top, as competition totally surrendered, and those games from 3rd parties plus the whole Ninty offer could allow NS to thrive for a lifecycle as long as the longest lived competitors, but the hybrid concept was invented to recover home console 3rd party support too, it worked quite well and Ninty doesn't want to throw it away again.

Switch never relied on the type of multiplatform titles you're on about to begin with they're not even ported now the main bulk of Switch third party games are indies and games that are easily ported, the NS library itself is mainly driven by exclusives and indies no one is buying a Switch thinking "I hope they can port the next Assassin's Creed" etc... The lack of AAA focus on the platform has created an ecosystem for indies and AA titles to do well, the hybrid concept wasn't created to recover console support it was created to consolidate Nintendo's own support to one platform as to not rely on third parties much as focusing on two platforms became unviable.

NS will hit around 100m next year and likely will surpass the PS4 the year after this means that in order to even be close to the NS the PS5 has outperform the PS4 while having a longer run consistently maintaining the performance or have a very long run which is harder in today's era, NS has the luxury of a monopoly on one side of the market so aren't have more freedom in when to move on from NS. The 3DS was going for 9 years with 7 of those years being very active the NS having 7 very active years is a possible 130-140m under current momentum.

Last edited by Wyrdness - on 20 December 2020

Wyrdness said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

I don't think PS5 can easily match NS' peak year either, but it could outsell it lifetime: when XBSS will become the minimum spec for current gen games, both PS5 and XBSX will run them more smoothly and possibly with a little more details, but porting them to NS will become very difficult, so if Ninty wants to keep a good number of multiplat ports, and the good relationships it has again with 3rd party home console games devs and publishers, it will need to release NS2 not too late, so PS5 lifecycle has good chances of being longer, provided that Sony does the final price cut earlier than the still missing PS4 one. Obviously also provided that things go well enough through the whole lifecycle.
Sure, for portable games NS is the unchallenged top, as competition totally surrendered, and those games from 3rd parties plus the whole Ninty offer could allow NS to thrive for a lifecycle as long as the longest lived competitors, but the hybrid concept was invented to recover home console 3rd party support too, it worked quite well and Ninty doesn't want to throw it away again.

Switch never relied on the type of multiplatform titles you're on about to begin with they're not even ported now the main bulk of Switch third party games are indies and games that are easily ported, the NS library itself is mainly driven by exclusives and indies no one is buying a Switch thinking "I hope they can port the next Assassin's Creed" etc... The lack of AAA focus on the platform has created an ecosystem for indies and AA titles to do well, the hybrid concept wasn't created to recover console support it was created to consolidate Nintendo's own support to one platform as to not rely on third parties much as focusing on two platforms became unviable.

NS will hit around 100m next year and likely will surpass the PS4 the year after this means that in order to even be close to the NS the PS5 has to outperform the PS4 while having a longer run consistently maintaining the performance. The 3DS was going for 9 years with 7 of those years being very active the NS having 7 very active years is a possible 130-140m under current momentum.

Unlike portable devs, that are usually happy with the power Ninty delivers for the whole gen even if it lasts very long, 3rd party home console devs tend to become power-hungry faster even when they develop exclusive games. Graphics power isn't a problem in portable and hybrid case, but main RAM size and CPU power eventually start limiting what can be done in a game. AA devs become power-hungry later than AAA ones, but they eventually do. Small devs and indies come last, but they most probably are the only ones that could remain happy with 4GB RAM for home console games for a whole long gen when the bare minimum everywhere else is 8GB and it's going to become 12GB in a couple of years. I perfectly know that 3rd party home console games are a minority of NS library, but Ninty will want to keep home devs with more reasonable desires happy. Anyhow, I don't predict a short life for NS, NS2 could arrive in late 2023 or early 2024 and NS keep on selling as entry-level for another two years at least. 130-140M for NS looks reasonable, while now a late final price cut must not be too late for PS4 to reach 125M, but with expanded market, not making big mistakes and doing the final price cut more timely, PS5 could outsell it by a little more than 10% lifetime.
Anyhow, it's too early to tell if launch sales will be followed, when supply catches up, by proportionally good average sales through PS5 lifecycle, this rough prediction can become true only if record launch isn't just an isolated peak.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Alby_da_Wolf said:

Unlike portable devs, that are usually happy with the power Ninty delivers for the whole gen even if it lasts very long, 3rd party home console devs tend to become power-hungry faster even when they develop exclusive games. Graphics power isn't a problem in portable and hybrid case, but main RAM size and CPU power eventually start limiting what can be done in a game. AA devs become power-hungry later than AAA ones, but they eventually do. Small devs and indies come last, but they most probably are the only ones that could remain happy with 4GB RAM for home console games for a whole long gen when the bare minimum everywhere else is 8GB and it's going to become 12GB in a couple of years. I perfectly know that 3rd party home console games are a minority of NS library, but Ninty will want to keep home devs with more reasonable desires happy. Anyhow, I don't predict a short life for NS, NS2 could arrive in late 2023 or early 2024 and NS keep on selling as entry-level for another two years at least. 130-140M for NS looks reasonable, while now a late final price cut must not be too late for PS4 to reach 125M, but with expanded market, not making big mistakes and doing the final price cut more timely, PS5 could outsell it by a little more than 10% lifetime.
Anyhow, it's too early to tell if launch sales will be followed, when supply catches up, by proportionally good average sales through PS5 lifecycle, this rough prediction can become true only if record launch isn't just an isolated peak.

The power hungry developers you speak of are hardly on the Switch to begin with if a developer wanted power Switch isn't the first platform they go to at all what they do will have no bearing on its performance do you know why Switch has so many AA and indie titles? It's because they barely can get a look in other platforms, PS and XB brands have helped pushed the AAA notion so much that the majority of players who purchase the platforms mainly focus of such high budget title the result is anything not in the same ball park tends to get overshadowed hence the one factor that offsets this is the Switch where AAA focus is not a thing this is why games like Hollow Knight and other similar titles put Switch ahead of PS4 and X1 in most cases.

These developers aren't concerned with pushing hardware they're more focused on pushing concepts ask yourself what is more power going to add to games like Octopath or Silk Song? Nintendo aren't concerned about what developer is happy or not because they learnt with the WiiU that trying to please developer is a fruitless task for them so instead with the switch they moved on to make sure things were perfect for one particular developer themselves their own consolidated support is enough to carry their platform to a position where it becomes too big for some entities to ignore



I mean we had pretty recent example of Hades and Among Us launching on the Switch first - there is a divergence in gaming that has always existed. But in the previous gen it was mostly Japanese 3rd Parties making games for the 3DS/PSV, the one before it you had all types of 3rd Parties making games for the DS/PSP. This group of games has always existed and will continue to exist. Some of the biggest games on the planet aren't exactly pushing killer graphics - PUBG, Dota 2, LoL, WoW, Fortnite, CS etc.

Launching AAA titles brings substantial risk as the marketing costs for Cyberpunk 2077/Marvel's Avengers would probably cover the development costs of hundreds of Hades, Among Us, Sakuras, Human Fall Flats etc . This is an overlooked fact but in order to succeed with your AAA in most cases you need a huge marketing budget on multiple very large media markets. When a studio invests in such a game they invest in some cases over 100M and because of this huge investment they also want to design the game with the latest monetization techniques, "turning players into payers" was a tag line a few years ago - and overtime excessive monitzation on consoles has been normalized.

AA & indies provide escape from this, and there is a big audience looking for that type of thing - from parents worried about their children's gambling habits to people worried where this design philosophy might lead to.

Last edited by noshten - on 20 December 2020

Nintendo doesn't need to chase the AAA power train; Switch has hardly any current gen AAA games and it's still one of the fastest selling systems ever, it'll do fine in 2021-2023 on indies, AA Japanese games, late 8th ports, and exclusives like MH Rise. There is no need at all for them to rush on to Switch 2.