A box plot I created to show both how eventful 2020 has been for weekly sales in Japan and also how uneventful 2018 was.

Can you explain how one is supposed to read this chart? I’m not sure if I am Understanding it correctly? 

We still have the week of Christmas Eve left in tracking; it might reach 2 million by years end.

I know I've said that every year but it never lived up to expectations, but 2020 will hopefully change this and we will finally get a Japanese 3rd Party 1M seller on the system. I though Yo-kai 4 would do it this year, but I guess Level-5 aren't able maintain a successful IP. I think based on Ring Fit and that other Boxing game the 1M seller won't be a big budget game but rather - something that resonates with an audience. If I was a Japanese 3rd party right now, I'd be thinking about a complimentary game to Animal Crossing with small budget, something that would be attractive to a female audience. Since I'm neither Japanese or a women, I can't really think of something but that would be a smart idea. But Japanese 3rd parties are so far behind the curve that I think maybe a smaller indie dev might eat their lunch at this point.

Hell, Human Fall Flat platform-puzzle video game developed by a single Lithuanian has probably sold more digital copies than any 3rd party game not named Minecraft. I don't think I've ever seen that game exit the top 10 in Japan since releasing. The game had sold 5M copies world wide across all platforms by Feb 2019, I wouldn't be surprised if it's close to 1M in Japan with it's lower price, constant promotions and constant place in the Top of the Digital Charts in the last few years. Overcooked 1/2 is another one I'd say has been doing pretty well in Japan and Japanese 3rd Parties are simply not doing enough and experimenting enough.

Obviously if a new Monster Hunter does end up on the Switch I expect that to easily sell more than 1M but judging from Capcom's output on the system so far, I will believe it when I see it.