zorg1000 said:
Yep, Lite model increasing the baseline, Pokemon reversing its decline & Ring Fit still being severely stock limited should keep sales high until Animal Crossing (and likely a special edition Switch Lite) comes and sees sales skyrocket and keeps sales high through the Spring. 1st half of the year should be notably up YoY, 2nd half is more questionable as last year was absolutely stacked with Mario Maker (last week of June so most of its sales in H2), Fire Emblem in July, improved model in Aug, Link's Awakening+Lite model+DQ XI in Sept, Luigi's Mansion+Ring Fit in Oct & Pokemon+Mario & Sonic in Nov. That will be a hard lineup to beat so it will be interesting to see what Nintendo has in store this year. |
They don't really need to beat 2nd half line up to do better
They only need a price drop and a Animal Crossing themed Switch/Switch Lite.
Animal Crossing demand will be constant hardware driver for a while after it releases.
We know nothing about 2nd half of 2020 in terms of 1st Party titles.
There are also rumors of new "Pro" Switch.
I know I've said that every year but it never lived up to expectations, but 2020 will hopefully change this and we will finally get a Japanese 3rd Party 1M seller on the system. I though Yo-kai 4 would do it this year, but I guess Level-5 aren't able maintain a successful IP. I think based on Ring Fit and that other Boxing game the 1M seller won't be a big budget game but rather - something that resonates with an audience. If I was a Japanese 3rd party right now, I'd be thinking about a complimentary game to Animal Crossing with small budget, something that would be attractive to a female audience. Since I'm neither Japanese or a women, I can't really think of something but that would be a smart idea. But Japanese 3rd parties are so far behind the curve that I think maybe a smaller indie dev might eat their lunch at this point.
Hell, Human Fall Flat platform-puzzle video game developed by a single Lithuanian has probably sold more digital copies than any 3rd party game not named Minecraft. I don't think I've ever seen that game exit the top 10 in Japan since releasing. The game had sold 5M copies world wide across all platforms by Feb 2019, I wouldn't be surprised if it's close to 1M in Japan with it's lower price, constant promotions and constant place in the Top of the Digital Charts in the last few years. Overcooked 1/2 is another one I'd say has been doing pretty well in Japan and Japanese 3rd Parties are simply not doing enough and experimenting enough.
Obviously if a new Monster Hunter does end up on the Switch I expect that to easily sell more than 1M but judging from Capcom's output on the system so far, I will believe it when I see it.
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