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noshten on 24 December 2020
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I know I've said that every year but it never lived up to expectations, but 2020 will hopefully change this and we will finally get a Japanese 3rd Party 1M seller on the system. I though Yo-kai 4 would do it this year, but I guess Level-5 aren't able maintain a successful IP. I think based on Ring Fit and that other Boxing game the 1M seller won't be a big budget game but rather - something that resonates with an audience. If I was a Japanese 3rd party right now, I'd be thinking about a complimentary game to Animal Crossing with small budget, something that would be attractive to a female audience. Since I'm neither Japanese or a women, I can't really think of something but that would be a smart idea. But Japanese 3rd parties are so far behind the curve that I think maybe a smaller indie dev might eat their lunch at this point.

Hell, Human Fall Flat platform-puzzle video game developed by a single Lithuanian has probably sold more digital copies than any 3rd party game not named Minecraft. I don't think I've ever seen that game exit the top 10 in Japan since releasing. The game had sold 5M copies world wide across all platforms by Feb 2019, I wouldn't be surprised if it's close to 1M in Japan with it's lower price, constant promotions and constant place in the Top of the Digital Charts in the last few years. Overcooked 1/2 is another one I'd say has been doing pretty well in Japan and Japanese 3rd Parties are simply not doing enough and experimenting enough.

Obviously if a new Monster Hunter does end up on the Switch I expect that to easily sell more than 1M but judging from Capcom's output on the system so far, I will believe it when I see it. 

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9096694

Well "1M seller won't be a big budget game but rather - something that resonates with an audience", turned out to be correct.

Although I would not have guessed that Konami will be the first to do it :) By EOY, game shipped+digital should surpass 2 million and it could very well enter a very exclusive club in 2021 when it surpasses 2.5 million. It's performing twice as strong as Super Mario Party did during it's launch Quarter without a JoyCon bundle and should become the best selling game by Konami in Japan of all time in 2021. 

Konami Top 10:

  1. Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Monsters 4 (GB) - 2.210.162
  2. Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Monsters (GB) - 1.522.968
  3. Momotaro Dentsu (NSW) - 1.500.000
  4. TwinBee (FC) - 1.200.000
  5. Metal Gear Solid 2 (PS2) - 1.141.289
  6. Metal Gear Solid 3 (PS2) - 1.129.926
  7. Winning Eleven 6 (PS2) - 1.116.786
  8. Winning Eleven 7 (PS2) - 1.100.238
  9. Winning Eleven 8 (PS2) - 1.075.164
  10. Winning Eleven 10 (PS2) - 1.059.585
There is actually only a handful of 3rd Parties with games that have surpassed 2.5M units in Japan, with the most recent game to reach this milestone being Monster Hunter World on the PS4
  • Square Enix - Dragon Quest IX(DS), Dragon Quest VIII(PS2)
  • Square - Final Fantasy VII(PS1), Final Fantasy VIII(PS1), Final Fantasy X(PS2), Final Fantasy IX(PS1), Final Fantasy VI(SFC)
  • Enix - Dragon Quest VII(PS1), Dragon Quest III(FC), Dragon Quest IV(FC), Dragon Quest VI(SFC), Dragon Quest V(SFC)
  • Capcom - Monster Hunter Freedom 3(PSP), Monster Hunter Freedom Unite(PSP), Monster Hunter 4(3DS), Street Fighter II(SFC), Monster Hunter Generations(3DS), Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate(3DS), Monster Hunter World(PS4)
  • Level 5: Yo-kai Watch 2(3DS), Yo-kai Watch 2: Psychic Specters(3DS)
3DS - 5
SFC - 4
PS1 - 4
PS2 - 2
FC - 2
PS4 - 1

By the end of next year, Switch would have 3 third party games with over 2.5 million sales - Minecraft, Monster Hunter Rise & Momotaro
When Square launches DQXII, Switch will become equal PS1/SFC, and would need just one more game to match 3DS. 
This should have been expected result considering how well Nintendo and Pokemon Co games are performing on the system but 3rd Parties have taken their sweet time doing something about it.