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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How much units will the Switch sell next year?

         

How much will the Switch sell in 2021?

< 5M 1 $1.00 1.89%
 
5-7.5M 0 $0.00 0%
 
7.5M-10M 0 $0.00 0%
 
10M-12.5M 0 $0.00 0%
 
12.5M-15M 1 $5.50 1.89%
 
15M-17.5M 2 $969.00 3.77%
 
17.5M-20M 5 $2,500.00 9.43%
 
20M-22.5M 14 $2,401.67 26.42%
 
22.5M-25M 10 $5,051.00 18.87%
 
> 25M 20 $8,872.00 37.74%
 
 
Totals: 53 $19,800.17  
Game closed: 12/31/2020

With the Switch close to it's peak, what do you think will it sell next year? I talk about calendar year 2021 and numbers according to VGC. And to make it something you not just about preferences, I make it a bet, so you should put your VG$ where your mouth is.

You can also bet, which console will sell the most in 2021.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 25 November 2020

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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5 million? Do you expect Switch lifetime sales to be 80 million or so? smh

The absolute minimum option would be 15 million

And even 20 million is already a pessimistic prediction, it would lead for about 35% drop after the peak year. It's not how consoles sales usually behave



IcaroRibeiro said:

5 million? Do you expect Switch lifetime sales to be 80 million or so? smh

The absolute minimum option would be 15 million

And even 20 million is already a pessimistic prediction, it would lead for about 35% drop after the peak year. It's not how consoles sales usually behave

RolStoppable said:

Looks like you copy-pasted your poll ranges from another thread. This makes it very easy to pick an option because anything below 20m borders on insanity.

I put exactly the same range of options for Series X/S, PS5 and Switch.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

RolStoppable said:
Mnementh said:

I put exactly the same range of options for Series X/S, PS5 and Switch.

So you openly discriminate against Nintendo and common sense.

Do I? If I don't treat Nintendo special I discriminate against them?



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

RolStoppable said:
Mnementh said:

Do I? If I don't treat Nintendo special I discriminate against them?

Actually, you are treating Nintendo special because you are willfully ignoring sales data. You don't do the same thing for Sony and Microsoft.

I guess I could've added a 22.5M and a 25M option (for all three platforms). Too late now, as people already placed bets.

EDIT: Actually I can - as people can change their bet. So attention everyone, I added higher options, if you want to use them please change your bet!

Last edited by Mnementh - on 26 November 2020

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Around the Network

I voted 25m+. I think Switch will keep doing well next year.



lol to the one person so far who voted 15 - 17.5 million! The 17.5 to 20 mil option should have been the lowest, as anything under 20 million is seriously lowballing it. I bet 22.5 to 25 mil as I think Switch will decline a few million from this year. It'll probably hit in the upper part of the range though, maybe just under 25 mil.

Switch should actually have the supply to meet demand next year, unlike this year, since they've increased production so much this year. And they've got new model, BotW2, likely price cuts or at least for the original, a big pokemon remake, Mario 3D World port, MH, likely stronger than ever 3rd party, and probably a bunch of other great 1st party games. On paper you'd think it would beat 2020 but I don't see beating AC + Covid demand, plus you've got some competition from the next gen systems that'll factor in a bit to where people spend money.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

I voted 25m+. I think Switch will keep doing well next year.

Same here, 25m+



This honestly has two main factors to it.

First will the Ps5 and Xbox______ solve their supply bottleneck.

Second is the games. Evergreen titles are important but people will buy the system in small, but important, numbers to ensure they get to play cult games like Bayonetta 3 and NMH 3.



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?

Slownenberg said:

lol to the one person so far who voted 15 - 17.5 million! The 17.5 to 20 mil option should have been the lowest, as anything under 20 million is seriously lowballing it. I bet 22.5 to 25 mil as I think Switch will decline a few million from this year. It'll probably hit in the upper part of the range though, maybe just under 25 mil.

Switch should actually have the supply to meet demand next year, unlike this year, since they've increased production so much this year. And they've got new model, BotW2, likely price cuts or at least for the original, a big pokemon remake, Mario 3D World port, MH, likely stronger than ever 3rd party, and probably a bunch of other great 1st party games. On paper you'd think it would beat 2020 but I don't see beating AC + Covid demand, plus you've got some competition from the next gen systems that'll factor in a bit to where people spend money.

They'll also have a flood of content/promotion with both Zelda 35th and Pokemon 25th anniversaries running.  And this time they would have been planned/designed with COVID in mind vs Mario 35th anniversary promotion being originally rumored to begin in April (start of FY) and then getting crammed into the last 3.5 months of the year instead.