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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - How much units will Series X/S sell next year?

         

How many units will Series X/S sell in 2021?

< 5M 0 $0.00 0%
 
5-7.5M 1 $50.00 3.70%
 
7.5M-10M 7 $3,202.00 25.93%
 
10M-12.5M 11 $1,541.69 40.74%
 
12.5M-15M 4 $1,575.00 14.81%
 
15M-17.5M 3 $1,446.00 11.11%
 
17.5M-20M 0 $0.00 0%
 
20M-22.5M 1 $100.00 3.70%
 
22.5M-25M 0 $0.00 0%
 
> 25M 0 $0.00 0%
 
 
Totals: 27 $7,914.69  
Game closed: 12/31/2020

I think it will sell around 12 mln in 2021.



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Well, apparently the Xbox One sold around 1,104,000 units in its first week while the Series X and S have sold around 1,345,000 units in the same period of time. Assuming sales will stay around 22% higher than Xbox One's, that would mean around 65 million Series X and S consoles sold by 2027 if the Xbox One has sold around 53 million units to this day - according to Daniel Ahmad - .

Now, this is without taking into account surges in demand caused by the launch of new exclusive games these two new consoles will have that Xbox One didn't have. I'm talking about games like Starfield, Fable, TES 6, Wolfenstein 3, Hellblade 2, etc. Taking those games into account, I think that the Series X and S will probably reach 75 or maybe even 80 million consoles sold by 2027.

I also expect the Series S to absolutely dominate most markets outside of Asia, Europe and the US (mainly Latin America). Anyway, divide 75 or 80 by 7 and you get 10,7 - 11,42. So I'm gonna say the Series X and S will sell around 10 million units in 2021, although that figure could grow to something like 11,5 or 12 if Starfield and/or Wolfenstein 3 launch next year.

I think that another important thing to take into account when predicting Xbox sales from now on is whether the 399 PS5 SKU is manufactured extensively or just a marketing gimmick by Sony just like the 499 PS3 was, which had almost no stock at all. Early figures show that PS5 DE accounts for around 10% of all PS5 consoles in stock right now and if Sony doesn't increase the production of the PS5 DE in a few years, then for 90% of the people PS5 will be effectively 100 dollars more expensive than the PS4 was, and Sony could lose a lot of casual players who just want to play the latest FIFA/AC/FC/COD/Fortnite games to the Series S, which will be 200 dollars cheaper than the PS5 since the PS5 DE will be continuosly out of stock and will be practically impossible to find, just like the 499 PS3.

Last edited by Elputoxd - on 29 November 2020

Elputoxd said:

Well, apparently the Xbox One sold around 1,104,000 units in its first week while the Series X and S have sold around 1,345,000 units in the same period of time. Assuming sales will stay around 22% higher than Xbox One's, that would mean around 65 million Series X and S consoles sold by 2027 if the Xbox One has sold around 53 million units to this day - according to Daniel Ahmad - .

Now, this is without taking into account surges in demand caused by the launch of new exclusive games these two new consoles will have that Xbox One didn't have. I'm talking about games like Starfield, Fable, TES 6, Wolfenstein 3, Hellblade 2, etc. Taking those games into account, I think that the Series X and S will probably reach 75 or maybe even 80 million consoles sold by 2027.

I also expect the Series S to absolutely dominate most markets outside of Asia, Europe and the US (mainly Latin America). Anyway, divide 75 or 80 by 7 and you get 10,7 - 11,42. So I'm gonna say the Series X and S will sell around 10 million units in 2021, although that figure could grow to something like 11,5 or 12 if Starfield and/or Wolfenstein 3 launch next year.

I think that another important thing to take into account when predicting Xbox sales from now on is whether the 399 PS5 SKU is manufactured extensively or just a marketing gimmick by Sony just like the 499 PS3 was, which had almost no stock at all. Early figures show that PS5 DE accounts for around 10% of all PS5 consoles in stock right now and if Sony doesn't increase the production of the PS5 DE in a few years, then for 90% of the people PS5 will be effectively 100 dollars more expensive than the PS4 was, and Sony could lose a lot of casual players who just want to play the latest FIFA/AC/FC/COD/Fortnite games to the Series S, which will be 200 dollars cheaper than the PS5 since the PS5 DE will be continuosly out of stock and will be practically impossible to find, just like the 499 PS3.

What an insightful first post, thanks to that analysis.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 29 November 2020

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year], [1], [2], [3], [4]

So PS5 sold 72,000 units in Oceania while Xbox Series S and X sold 69,000 at launch. Those are huge numbers for Xbox, the price hike by Sony has affected prices there a lot (PS5 games in Australia now cost 125 AUD, pure madness). I can see Xbox becoming the market leader there again this gen.



I updated the comparative thread with data from all three console threads. This is the graph, comparing the bets in all three threads (as of today):

You can still add bets.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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10-12.5 million.

PS5 and Switch will sell better, and draw some of the sales away.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

I'm gonna say, conservatively, 4.5-5M in the U.S., an about 7-7.5M globally. I'm probably undershooting it, though.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

OK guys, last days to place or change your bet. I graphed the bets in all three threads so far:

For Xbox most bets land in the window between 7.5M and 17.5M for some reason.

Remember: You can still change your bets until the end of the year.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year], [1], [2], [3], [4]

To me, sales dont mean anything anymore until they fix this scalping problem. Seeing systems move from one warehouse to another due to thousands of bots is not exactly a real sale.

Until we move away from low manufacturing issues, celebrating these milestones or predicting sales is simply premature. So no, i dont know what they will estimate to sell.



I'll go with pretty much the safest bet of 7.5-10m