Well, apparently the Xbox One sold around 1,104,000 units in its first week while the Series X and S have sold around 1,345,000 units in the same period of time. Assuming sales will stay around 22% higher than Xbox One's, that would mean around 65 million Series X and S consoles sold by 2027 if the Xbox One has sold around 53 million units to this day - according to Daniel Ahmad - .
Now, this is without taking into account surges in demand caused by the launch of new exclusive games these two new consoles will have that Xbox One didn't have. I'm talking about games like Starfield, Fable, TES 6, Wolfenstein 3, Hellblade 2, etc. Taking those games into account, I think that the Series X and S will probably reach 75 or maybe even 80 million consoles sold by 2027.
I also expect the Series S to absolutely dominate most markets outside of Asia, Europe and the US (mainly Latin America). Anyway, divide 75 or 80 by 7 and you get 10,7 - 11,42. So I'm gonna say the Series X and S will sell around 10 million units in 2021, although that figure could grow to something like 11,5 or 12 if Starfield and/or Wolfenstein 3 launch next year.
I think that another important thing to take into account when predicting Xbox sales from now on is whether the 399 PS5 SKU is manufactured extensively or just a marketing gimmick by Sony just like the 499 PS3 was, which had almost no stock at all. Early figures show that PS5 DE accounts for around 10% of all PS5 consoles in stock right now and if Sony doesn't increase the production of the PS5 DE in a few years, then for 90% of the people PS5 will be effectively 100 dollars more expensive than the PS4 was, and Sony could lose a lot of casual players who just want to play the latest FIFA/AC/FC/COD/Fortnite games to the Series S, which will be 200 dollars cheaper than the PS5 since the PS5 DE will be continuosly out of stock and will be practically impossible to find, just like the 499 PS3.
Last edited by Elputoxd - on 29 November 2020
