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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Phil Spencer: Xbox Series didn’t need a system seller at launch

JWeinCom said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
JWeinCom said:
sales2099 said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
sales2099 said:
ClassicGamingWizzz said:
sales2099 said:




sales2099 said:
eva01beserk said:
sales2099 said:

Imo calling Bethesda a “poached” developer warranted my response. Like the acquisition was without honour or something. It was done with mutual agreement with a premium that is unheard of in this industry. But sure that dastardly MS “poached” poor and innocent Bethesda. 

So that’s where I’m coming from and I hope the mods see that too. 

As a 3rd party dev, Bethesda existed in the wild. Any gamer that wanted to play a Bethesda game could play it on their platform of choice, with the exception of Nintendo. But even then there are a few Bethesda games on Switch. Now, if MS goes through with Bethesda exclusivity they will have removed all those Bethesda games from the wild, making them PC/Xbox only. I'm sure Bethesda is more than happy to be purchased, but that's beside the point. If MS does indeed plan on buying up even more studios simply to spitefully keep them off PS5, then they are insanely hypocritical, and damaging to gaming as a whole. MS can do whatever they want with their own home grown content. If you made a game you have every right to sell it however you want. But trying to moneyhat 3rd party games off of PS5, simply because you want to monopolize the gaming industry is a scumbag move. Anyway, call it whatever you want. Poaching, Scalping, Extreme Moneyhatting. Either way it goes against their previous PR spin nonsense that "Exclusives are evil. Sony is evil for making better games than us, and then not selling those games on our platforms!!!"

Both Sony and MS bought studios. What each studio made before hand is irrelevant. To me going 1st party takes the dev off the market. They objectively aren’t expected to make multiplat games because we know it’s a simple matter of ownership. But a dev staying 3rd party doing exclusive content...that’s dirty. 

But there really is no moral high ground you can take as a Sony fan, especially talking about “damaging gaming”. Sony drove Sega out of console gaming. The beat Nintendo so bad that they will never return to traditional consoles ever again. All their consoles have to be underpowered and have a unique hardware quirk to remain competitive. Sony almost drove out Xbox until Phil convinced MS to back them. 

You talk about MS trying to monopolize the gaming industry and scumbag moves...look no further then Sony having a rich history of choking out competition. As long as PS has more marketshare, Xbox should be buying and buying and buying and buying until Sony doesn’t have anybody left to moneyhat and we can finally have some long overdue equilibrium. 

Microsoft should buy everyone and everything to make things even !!!

If they buy everything they create a monopoly , do you even think before you write these...

Monopoly is dictated by marketshare, not assets owned. So taking Nintendo out of the equation as they are doing something different from Sony and MS, the marketshare Sony has tells me it is they who have a monopoly. Doesn’t matter what MS buys until their marketshare is at least over 50% they ain’t no monopoly, yet. 

Please start a thread called Sony Has A Monopoly on the Console Industry!

Then please explain how Sony has used unfair business practices according to the FTC. Here's their page defining what a monopoly is. https://www.ftc.gov/tips-advice/competition-guidance/guide-antitrust-laws/single-firm-conduct/monopolization-defined Seriously though, please read that page.

I merely have to look at the front page of this site to see a case for Sony monopolizing the console industry. Take out Nintendo for not being as direct a competitor as Xbox and it’s even more so evident. 

What MS is doing is no different then Sony. Half of Sony’s studios are bought. MS just doing it on a grander scale, again, to boost marketshare to prevent another monopoly next gen. 

You can’t look at Xboxs marketshare and tell me MS is monopolizing the industry...it’s blatantly contradictory. 

No, you don't need to just look at the front page of a website to determine when that Sony is monopolizing the console industry... There's a reason there are whole books and courses devoted to anti-trust law. You can't just go to court and say "Your honor, I present exhibit A, the frontpage of VGChartz. I rest my case. Mic drop."

The first thing you'd have to do is establish that "console industry" is a valid antitrust market. If I were Sony's lawyer I would argue that is not a proper market in terms of the Sherman Antitrust Act. For instance in United States v. E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co, the Supreme Court ruled that a company that controlled 75% of the cellophane market did not have a monopoly, because you had to include any reasonable substitute product in the market. I.e. any sort of flexible plastic wrapping. In the videogame industry there are several products one could substitute for a PS4.

The Switch serves the same function as the Playstation 4. It plays videogames. It even plays many of the same videogames. It is sold at the same specialty retailers. This site tracks them in the same place, as does NPD or Famitsu, and fans constantly bicker over which is better. By your own words it is a competitor, even if it's "not as direct" as XBox. You can't chuck it out because it's inconvenient. It doesn't have to do the exact same thing, just has to be close enough. The fact that I can play Zelda on one and Horizon on the other doesn't mean the products are in a separate market. Maybe to a gamer the difference is significant enough to classify them separately, but not in a court.

And of course, there is the XBox One. The fact that it is not selling as well as the PS4 right now is immaterial. It is an option that people have available to them. Unless you want to argue that the XBox One is so vastly inferior that nobody can reasonably choose it over a PS4. And, even if you did limit the console market to just PS4 and XBox One, Xbox has nearly a third of that market. That's not an insignificant part. Being the best seller in your market does not mean you have a monopoly. 

In addition to the Switch and XBox One, there is the fact that PCs are a potential substitute for a PS4, offering the ability to play the majority of games available on the PS4. That includes a sizeable chunk of Sony's first party titles through PSNow. You of course would claim that PCs are not consoles, but console market is not legally a thing. Trying to convince a court that a machine that can play almost all of the same games, is not in the same market would be an uphill battle.

The important thing is that there are at least three replacement products people turn to if they don't like what Sony is doing. The PS3 is the perfect example of this. Sony completely dominated the console market with the PS2, and they thought that they were so dominant that they could sell their next machine at vastly above the market standard. Tons of customers said "nope fuck that" and bought an XBox 360 or a Wii instead, or got a better PC.  Obviously, Sony did not have a monopoly of the gaming market, and they were far more dominant back then.


Which brings us to the second thing you'd have to prove, that Sony is somehow preventing competition. If people by and large decide that the PS4 is better than the XBox One, then that's not a monopoly, that is competition. It's only a monopoly if Sony is doing something unfair to prevent other companies from competing. And, I can't see anything that qualifies. Clearly as the Switch and PC markets show it is perfectly possible for other companies to thrive in the market. And, Microsoft clearly believes that competition is still possible, as shown by the fact that they're still making consoles.

The basic question you have to ask is "Does Sony get to do whatever the fuck they want?" And clearly they do not. If Sony decided that they were going to charge 90 dollars for the standard edition on all PS5 games, I think it's pretty clear that the XBox Series X/S would outsell it. Competing and winning doesn't mean you have a monopoly. Preventing anyone else from competing through unfair practices makes a monopoly.

THANKYOU! I tried to get him to objectively define why Sony was a monopoly, and he just dodged the question. I was all ready for him to make his case. I wanted some real discussion. Instead he just says "Sony is doing way better therefore MONOPOLY!!!". By his definition Netflix has a monopoly on streaming TV shows with 183 million subscribers. Nevermind that that entire market has too many profitable competitors to list off the top of my head. :P

Anyway, sorry for derailing the thread.

I happened to study the subject a bit cause I was writing a brief article about the Epic/Apple Lawsuit. A big point of contention was whether the App Store is actually a market for anti-trust purposes. So I had to look into that issue a bit to write it. Pretty sure that XBox+Playstation can't be considered a market in itself.

As for derailing, it's fine. It's not like you have to be laser focused on exactly what the title says. Side conversations happen. Just has to still be reasonably tied to the topic at hand. 

The very big difference as you rightly pointed is that there is a difference between what "market" considers a market, versus what a court would consider for anti-trust law. And even better put was that even though several of those products don't directly compete they are considered at least substitute products so for total market size they are considered (then sure we can slice and classify sub-markets or niches, even if the niche is 250M users).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Can these massive quote trees can be cut down? It's making it annoying to scroll these pages.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Leynos said:
Can these massive quote trees can be cut down? It's making it annoying to scroll these pages.

I feel like they automatically trimmed down on the previous version of the site and I'm not used to doing it manually. My bad.



JWeinCom said:
Leynos said:
Can these massive quote trees can be cut down? It's making it annoying to scroll these pages.

I feel like they automatically trimmed down on the previous version of the site and I'm not used to doing it manually. My bad.

Long ago there was people that got moderation warnings due to not trimming the quotes (maximum of 3 on the tree). Some years ago finally the autotrim function arrived. But for some reason it isn't working anymore or was removed.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
JWeinCom said:

Backseat modding is also moderation worthy.

If you're wondering why I responded to this and none of the salty remarks, the answer is simple. Someone reported this post. Nobody reported the salty comment. (Unless another mod hid it, but we try not to do that before bringing it up in modchat).

Mods aren't omnipresent dude. We try our best to keep an eye on things, but we don't read every word of every post. So, if you think something is an issue, you got to meet us halfway and flag it. Otherwise, I'm not sure what you expect.

Anyways, don't call anyone salty, and don't suggest someone should be modded. This seems to be a case of one relatively minor violation apiece, so we can call it even and move on. Anything further on this should be via PM.

I know that I got mods message for "spamming report", basically the message said that if you reported one post in the thread you shouldn't report others because the moderation team would review THE WHOLE thread. So yep responding to him but not to the "salty" remarks seems in contradiction with the message I received from mod.

But I addressed both of them in the post... didn't I?

The thing in this case was that the poster seemed to be complaining that someone was getting away with something... and the reason they had been getting away with it was because nobody had reported it and no mod had been checking in on this topic. But, once that post was reported, I did indeed go back and look at other posts, and addressed both issues.

Dunno what the other mod said... but this is a 15 page thread, so obviously I'm not going to read every single post that was made. But, I will go back as far as I feel is needed to understand the context of the conversation. Generally, that means I'll go back to the beginning of an interaction between two users, but possibly further than that. 

So, if multiple reports are made on things happening within one interaction, or within a couple of pages, that's probably unnecessary. If something is reported on page one, and then ten pages later in an entirely separate conversation, something else is reported, then that's probably fine. Just my opinion of course, I didn't consult with the mod team on this one. Maybe the other mods literally do read every post XD

Seriously though, last warning, anything further about moderation in a PM. 

DonFerrari said:

I happened to study the subject a bit cause I was writing a brief article about the Epic/Apple Lawsuit. A big point of contention was whether the App Store is actually a market for anti-trust purposes. So I had to look into that issue a bit to write it. Pretty sure that XBox+Playstation can't be considered a market in itself.

As for derailing, it's fine. It's not like you have to be laser focused on exactly what the title says. Side conversations happen. Just has to still be reasonably tied to the topic at hand. 

The very big difference as you rightly pointed is that there is a difference between what "market" considers a market, versus what a court would consider for anti-trust law. And even better put was that even though several of those products don't directly compete they are considered at least substitute products so for total market size they are considered (then sure we can slice and classify sub-markets or niches, even if the niche is 250M users).

Frustratingly, there really is no clear definition for what a market is. For a counter point, American Express was I believe ruled to have monopoly power over their "market" which was really just American express cards.

The difference in that case was though that it was restaurants suing American Express. If the restaurants stopped taking American Express cards, they would lose out on a huge amount of potential business. So, American Express was able to basically dictate terms, and the restaurants had no choice but to take it. Even though alternatives to American express existed, restaurants couldn't just say "well we're going to go with Visa now". Theoretically, the same claim could have been raised against Visa, so both could have had a monopoly on the market, or more accurately had monopoly power.

But, if it had been a consumer suing American Express for an anti-trust violation, they probably would have ruled that there was no monopoly, because the customer does have the option to just cancel their card and sign up with another company. American Express had monopoly power against vendors, but not against individual consumers.

Point being, it's complicated. I'm not an expert, but I think the best way to think of it is, does the company get to do what the fuck they want? If so, it's a monopoly in that context. If not, it's not.

Currently, I don't think either Microsoft or Sony could be said to have monopoly power. Neither one could do something crazy like jack up the price or force devs they don't own to only make games for them. Microsoft buying Bethesda wouldn't get them to monopoly power... But suppose Microsoft bough Activision, EA, Epic Games, and Nintendo tomorrow. Now you're getting close.



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JWeinCom said:
DonFerrari said:
JWeinCom said:

Backseat modding is also moderation worthy.

If you're wondering why I responded to this and none of the salty remarks, the answer is simple. Someone reported this post. Nobody reported the salty comment. (Unless another mod hid it, but we try not to do that before bringing it up in modchat).

Mods aren't omnipresent dude. We try our best to keep an eye on things, but we don't read every word of every post. So, if you think something is an issue, you got to meet us halfway and flag it. Otherwise, I'm not sure what you expect.

Anyways, don't call anyone salty, and don't suggest someone should be modded. This seems to be a case of one relatively minor violation apiece, so we can call it even and move on. Anything further on this should be via PM.

I know that I got mods message for "spamming report", basically the message said that if you reported one post in the thread you shouldn't report others because the moderation team would review THE WHOLE thread. So yep responding to him but not to the "salty" remarks seems in contradiction with the message I received from mod.

But I addressed both of them in the post... didn't I?

The thing in this case was that the poster seemed to be complaining that someone was getting away with something... and the reason they had been getting away with it was because nobody had reported it and no mod had been checking in on this topic. But, once that post was reported, I did indeed go back and look at other posts, and addressed both issues.

Dunno what the other mod said... but this is a 15 page thread, so obviously I'm not going to read every single post that was made. But, I will go back as far as I feel is needed to understand the context of the conversation. Generally, that means I'll go back to the beginning of an interaction between two users, but possibly further than that. 

So, if multiple reports are made on things happening within one interaction, or within a couple of pages, that's probably unnecessary. If something is reported on page one, and then ten pages later in an entirely separate conversation, something else is reported, then that's probably fine. Just my opinion of course, I didn't consult with the mod team on this one. Maybe the other mods literally do read every post XD

Seriously though, last warning, anything further about moderation in a PM. 

DonFerrari said:

I happened to study the subject a bit cause I was writing a brief article about the Epic/Apple Lawsuit. A big point of contention was whether the App Store is actually a market for anti-trust purposes. So I had to look into that issue a bit to write it. Pretty sure that XBox+Playstation can't be considered a market in itself.

As for derailing, it's fine. It's not like you have to be laser focused on exactly what the title says. Side conversations happen. Just has to still be reasonably tied to the topic at hand. 

The very big difference as you rightly pointed is that there is a difference between what "market" considers a market, versus what a court would consider for anti-trust law. And even better put was that even though several of those products don't directly compete they are considered at least substitute products so for total market size they are considered (then sure we can slice and classify sub-markets or niches, even if the niche is 250M users).

Frustratingly, there really is no clear definition for what a market is. For a counter point, American Express was I believe ruled to have monopoly power over their "market" which was really just American express cards.

The difference in that case was though that it was restaurants suing American Express. If the restaurants stopped taking American Express cards, they would lose out on a huge amount of potential business. So, American Express was able to basically dictate terms, and the restaurants had no choice but to take it. Even though alternatives to American express existed, restaurants couldn't just say "well we're going to go with Visa now". Theoretically, the same claim could have been raised against Visa, so both could have had a monopoly on the market, or more accurately had monopoly power.

But, if it had been a consumer suing American Express for an anti-trust violation, they probably would have ruled that there was no monopoly, because the customer does have the option to just cancel their card and sign up with another company. American Express had monopoly power against vendors, but not against individual consumers.

Point being, it's complicated. I'm not an expert, but I think the best way to think of it is, does the company get to do what the fuck they want? If so, it's a monopoly in that context. If not, it's not.

Currently, I don't think either Microsoft or Sony could be said to have monopoly power. Neither one could do something crazy like jack up the price or force devs they don't own to only make games for them. Microsoft buying Bethesda wouldn't get them to monopoly power... But suppose Microsoft bough Activision, EA, Epic Games, and Nintendo tomorrow. Now you're getting close.

Yes you did address both, but I thought it was worth pointing that some post not being reported doesn't mean it won't be looked by moderation if the thread itself had a post reported. And I'm certainly glad you gave more info on it so everyone can better understand it, thanks. Will follow your warning and stop here.

Yep. They are different things, a monopoly, monopoly practices, monopoly power and even though they can all be existing together they don't need to. As you said MS is far from having monopoly in gaming (or Sony, and for Nintendo we would need to pretend portable is a defined market that Nintendo have 100% domination, but then that would be because of lack of competitors and unless Nintendo pushed devs around or abused customers there wouldn't be a lawsuit to be made), but they are big enough company that they could employ monopoly practices through their financial power even though they don't have monopoly power in this market (but could leverage monopoly power from a different market, but I haven't seem a case yet of it happening) still buying a publisher isn't a monopoly practice but a regular market consolidation (that sure long term could create a monopoly or oligopoly).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

He isn't wrong on a technical standpoint per see, but yes he is just spinning off and sugar coating the fact that they didn't have ANY exclusives from first party for launch even though they bought plenty of studios and paid for some 3rd party exclusives (timed or not). This is the way of Phil, and depending on how you read he is saying a big F.U to costumers... not to forget in another interview he says consoles sales don't matter, even though they making cheaper entry level console, slashing price in Japan and Brazil say otherwise. I dunno why people when defending him ignores the moves done and focus only on whatever he say at that day.

Phil says a lot - every week. And opinions are constantly being changed (by MS) or statistics are described as "good / as better", that honestly reminds me of Trump's US strategy.

ClassicGamingWizzz said:

What he is saying is we dont give a shit about our costumers , they will still buy it.

I just dont understand the excuses people make in the name of papa phill, dude does nothing, everyday what we see is him giving interviews with his made up nice guy persona to camouflage his incompetence in the things that are important , like you know, games...

neither do I.

jardesonbarbosa said:

2021 is much more important, that is a fact. Most launch titles are forgetable.However, a think having a big launch exclusive made from the ground up for the Series X would be a good way to show the costumers that they can be confident in the console. I'd rather have at least one game than nothing. Phil just can't admit they fucked up big time with Halo Infinite, so he has to pretend everything is fine, but I'm sure Microsoft knows they fucked up.

A fact ? i dont know, think so not. And in the first 2021-quarter we see more stronger PS5-Games than xbox games again (Gran Turismo 7, Kenia Spirits, the new Ratchet & Clank, a new ip ect). But okay - if Microsoft doesn't care, fans shouldn't care either.

LurkerJ said:

Xbox Series doesn't need a system seller in 2021 as well, by the looks of things.

2021 looks not interesting, but on the other sites.. we see the new God of War Ragnarök, Horizon Forbidden West, many titles in the first 2021-months and maybe Final Fantasy 7 Remake Part 2. Maybe some other japan exclusives too?

BillyBong said:

My take.. maybe, maybe not.. but xbox isn't really in a position to play the waiting game this gen due to the drubbing they got last gen. yes, gamepass.. awesome, but still got drubbed overall by sony and ninty last gen, and not just by a little. Perception is key, as yes, third party can sustain between the droughts of first party stuff, but when you need to prove your first party stuff is worth buying their console for (and a new console) and you really have nothing to show, especially at launch.. that's going to play big into that perception.  And when you have the most powerful console but nothing that can show what a most powerful console can do.. 

Makes no sense to buy a shiny new box to continue to play stuff I can already play with what I already have. Xbox needed to ball out right out of the gate.. time will tell if this hurts the perception.

Thanks for your opinion, interesting to read :) And the most powerful console is the PlayStation 5 in future, like in the last 8 Years the PS4. I guess Microsoft can be happy if in 3-4 years they have a game that has the graphics and love to detail of "The Last of Us 2" or "Ghost of Tsushima". The new Graphic-Reference is Horizon Forbidden West 2021 then, maybe.

Trunkin said:

I agree that launch lineup doesn't matter, I disagree that Holiday 2021 is what's important. Imo Q1 and Q2 are by far the most important postlaunch months to maintain demand. Looks like Sony has them covered, but there's no word from MS on what killer apps they'll have for that period.

Okay Trunkin :)

Barkley said:

It's true that the Xbox was going to sell out 2020 regardless of launch lineup but maintaining momentum into the new years is important. You need consistent releases to maintain demand, Holiday 2021 is too long to wait, launch momentum won't keep you going a whole year.

By July 2021 the PS5 may have potentially already released Miles Morales, Demon's Souls, Sackboy, Destruction All-Stars, Returnal, Gran Turismo 7 and Ratchet & Clank.

PS5 is going to keep up it's momentum and keep demand high, Xbox by summer 2021 is easily going to have the capacity to produce far more consoles than demand requires.

Consistent Releases Matter.

So true.



We officially know that the new xbox series has sold worse than the Xbox One in America and Spain, right? And in the US, UK, Germany the PS5 console launch broke records. What say Phil Spencer now? Is it perhaps a mistake? Maybe yes. And in Japan the old PS4 has even overtaken the new xbox now. I wouldn't be surprised, Microsoft will advertise the old stuff for the next few months (like in the last 10 months always), while good exclusives appear on other consoles. In my opinion, the new xbox came out too early.

Could it be that the true sales figures are less than Microsoft "statistically" reported? In the USA/Spain things are going worse than expected. What do you think guys?

Last edited by KazumaKiryu - on 12 December 2020



Allocation of stock is essentially determining sales atm. Key thing is all hardware is sold out.

Phil comment was not wrong, Xbox doesn't "need" exclusive this holiday but it would definitely help generate momentum and good word of mouth going into Q1. PS5 will end up with a lot more demand because of this. Right now we supply constrain so it's not so visible