So as I been saying, I’m still going to say next year will be massive. I’m going to make a comparison for NSW vs 3ds but for 3ds it will be combine of years 5+6+7. If NSW pulls ahead of 3ds with that comparison by 2025 it will be possible for NSW to get near DS lifetime

Top 30: https://nintendoeverything.com/famitsu-software-sales-11-2-20-11-8-20-top-30/

1. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe – 67,925 / 239,274
2. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 37,256 / 1,783,608
3. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 31,687 / 5,941,433
4. [NSW] Pokemon Sword/Shield + Expansion Pass – 18,638 / NEW
5. [NSW] Shadowverse: Champions Battle – 13,871 / NEW
6. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 12,318 / 3,250,835
7. [PS4] Watch Dogs Legion – 8,723 / 49,685
8. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars – 8,536 / 373,171
9. [NSW] Minecraft – 8,091 / 1,551,842
10. [NSW] Pokemon Sword/Shield – 7,638 / 3,790,783

11. [NSW] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne HD Remaster – 7,068 / 59,549
12. [PS4] Mary Skelter Finale – 6,819 / NEW
13. [PS4] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne HD Remaster – 6,671 / 55,501
14. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 6,046 / 3,871,914
15. [NSW] Super Mario Party – 5,783 / 1,591,405
16. [NSW] Splatoon 2 – 4,807 / 3,596,910
17. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics – 4,571 / 420,726
18. [NSW] Mary Skelter Finale – 4,544 / NEW
19. [NSW] Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 4,056 / 1,676,903
20. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe – 3,633 / 922,995
21. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 – 2,728 / 983,173
22. [NSW] Ouchi de Rilakkuma: Rilakkuma ga Ouchi ni Yatte Kita – 2,673 / NEW
23. [NSW] Minecraft Dungeons Hero Edition – 2,476 / 41,437
24. [NSW] Kamen Rider: Memory of Heroez – 2,468 / 14,151
25. [NSW] Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit – 2,371 / 87,563
26. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima’s Brain Training for Nintendo Switch – 2,323 / 316,231
27. [PS4] Ghost of Tsushima – 2,166 / 412,868
28. [NSW] Human: Fall Flat – 2,130 / 47,736
29. [NSW] Fishing Spirits Nintendo Switch Version – 2,102 / 504,241
30. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey – 2,030 / 2,140,133

NS - 26

PS4 - 4

Crazy sales in what's been a pretty weak year for software. If next year has a revision+more than one heavy hitter, one wonders just how high things can go.

Famitsu 2020 Top 50:

1. NSW: Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo) - 5.941.433
2. NSW: Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) - 1.287.969
3. PS4: Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square) - 932.821
4. NSW: Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 821.287*
5. NSW: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) - 591.826
6. NSW: Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo) - 420.726
7. NSW: Smash Ultimate (Nintendo) - 418.862 (+1)
8. PS4: Ghost of Tsushima (Sony) - 412.868  (-1)
9. NSW: Minecraft (Microsoft) - 405.903
10. NSW: Super Mario 3D All-Stars (Nintendo) - 373.171
11. NSW: Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) - 344.150
12. NSW: Super Mario Party (Nintendo) - 327.695
13. NSW: Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo) - 281.535
14. NSW: Paper Mario: The Origami King (Nintendo) - 267.743
15. NSW: Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX (Pokemon Co.) - 259.513
16. PS4: Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 
17. PS4: Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 
18. NSW: Pikmin 3 Deluxe (Nintendo) - 239.274 (NEW)
19. NSW: eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 237.550 (-1)
20. PS4: The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 222.943 (-1)
21. NSW: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) - 195.554 (-1)
22. NSW: Luigi's Mansion 3 (Nintendo) - 187.050 (-1)
23. NSW: Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) - 182.669
24. PS4: eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 180.243 (-1)
25. NSW: New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) - 175.366 (-1)
26. NSW: Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 167.246 (-1)
27. PS4: Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On (Bandai Namco Games) - 161.014 (-1)
28. PS4: Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 (-1)
29. PS4: Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 149.898 (-1)
30. PS4: Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 (-1)
31. NSW: Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550 (-1)
32. PS4: Trials of Mana (Square) - 133.593 (-1)
33. PS4: One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315 (-1)
34. NSW: Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition (Nintendo) - 128.989 (-1)
35. NSW: One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 (-1)
36. PS4: Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094 (-1)
37. NSW: Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 101.707 (-1)
38. NSW: Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 (-1)
39. PS4: The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki (Nihon Falcom) - 96.140 (-1)
40. NSW: Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) - 92.587 (-1)
41. NSW: Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit (Nintendo) - 87.563 (+1)
42. PS4: Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris (Bandai) - 85.010 (-2)
43. NSW: Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 82.137 (-2)
44. NSW: Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558 (-1)
45. NSW: Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 65.653 (-1)
46. PS4: Marvel's Avengers (Square Enix) - 64.255 (-1)
47. PS4: Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne (Capcom) - 63.322 (-1)
48. NSW: Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 62.949 (-1)
49. NSW: Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (Atlus) - 59.549 (NEW)
50. NSW: Pokemon Let's Go (Pokemon Co) - 57.478 (-2)

NSW - 33

PS4 - 17 

TOTAL: 17.946.621

NSW: 14.393.234 (80.21%)

PS4: 3.553.387 (19.79%)

• Switch surpassed 80% Software share in the Top 50 chart
• Pikmin 3 Deluxe enters the chart at #18, game should have no problems surpassing 500K this year
• The only PS4 game that is likely to enter the chart is COD: Cold War
• I don't expect any PS5 games to actually debut within the Top 50 next week
• The next major debuts are Momotaro and Age of Calamity in two weeks

Nintendo & Pokemon Co: 12.775.027

3rd Parties PS4: 2.917.576

3rd Parties NSW: 1.618.207

Prediction:

• By the end of the year, I'm thinking that the Software share for the Switch will approach 88%. 
• PS4 will end up with around 3M software sales or less.
• I don't see any PS5 games actually making the Top 50
• The cutoff in the Top 50 will be over 100K, last year it was PS4 Dragon Quest Builders 2 with 86K
• There might be a Western Indie game in the Top 50 called Human Fall Flat

TOP 10 Switch Famitsu 2020 Q4:

1. Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 239.274 
2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 187.351
3. Ring Fit Adventure - 181.423
4. Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 99.232
5. Mario Kart Live -  87.563
6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 66.610
7. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 64.066* (+1)
8. Shin Megami Tensei III - 59.549
9. Minecraft - 39.575
10. Smash Ultimate - 35.046

TOTAL: 1.059.689

• The Top 10 just surpassed 1 million for the Quarter
• Ring Fit and Animal Crossing will accelerate additionally thanks to bundles
• I've combined the DLC pack with the Pokemon Sword / Shield numbers
• In two weeks time we will have the biggest 3rd Party fall games releasing - Momotaro and Age of Calamity

love it!

I'm in

PS5: 110.000

XB Family: 30.000

Demon's Souls (PS5): 50.000

Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales (PS5): 45.000

Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (PS4): 90.000

Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (PS5): 30.000

Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (NSW+PS4): 40.000

The one thing I'm unsure about is PS5 software, there is a possibility it's a lot lower due to scalpers and digital. Otherwise based on all anecodetes include Media Create, whether it's 100-150K doesn't change the fact that this will be a pretty sad launch for the Playstation in Japan. XB family will see a very slight growth compared to the X1, while the PS4 version of COD Cold War is going to see a decline compared to Modern Warfare last year. 

Sakuna's shipment across it's platforms doesn't look like it's above 50K, hope Marvelous is prepared with enough additional shipments for the Switch version for the holiday because to me it seems like the game is going to be a hit for them in Japan. Overall it would be emblematic if at the end of the year Sakuna on the Switch ends up out-selling more than any PS5 game. 

Marvelous to me seem like they will experience the most explosive growth in the coming year out of all Japanese 3rd Parties. Their revenue could more than double YoY in the next few quarters, as they have Sakuna, Olive Town and Rune Factory 5 coming out. Sakuna is from a very small team called Edelweiss so it's not a huge investment. A crucial part of the growth will the localization efforts of XSeed - I imagine that if Sakuna also does well in West digitally this year, we could have a strong result for them even this holiday season. But the key titles will obviously be Olive Town and Rune Factory 5, if they end up popular among the Animal Crossing audience we are looking at a very high potential for growth. 

I genuinely wonder if 2021 and beyond for PS5 software will look much like 2020 for PS4 software in Japan, or whether it being a younger system will make it more competitive.

Wait what 100k as in only 100k for a platform launch?

Yeah, I'm having a hard time imagining PS5 even surpasses half a million during 2020.

So PS4/PS5 sales this year might not even surpass 1 million combined. And things aren't looking like they will pick up for the PS5 next year, in 2014 PS4 managed around 970K launching in Feb, next year the PS5 might be around 750K. 

This has been my expectation for a while, PS4 was fortunate to launch while Nintendo was floundering between supporting the 3DS and Wii U. I don't think the PS4 lineup during it's first year on the market was better than what we know about the PS5 lineup for 2020/2021 the issue is that the PS5 actually is facing a dominant platform getting 3rd Party Support and the full support of all Nintendo development groups.

Below is the 2014 PS4 games and how much they sold in 2014:

1. Knack (Sony) - 400.115(bundled)
2. Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes (Konami) - 144.798
3. Yakuza: Ishin! (Sega) - 129.307 
4. Destiny (Sony) - 119.707
5. Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two) - 107.524

Overall 47 PS4 games charted on Famitsu in 2014 with a combined sell-through of about 2 million, from Japanese 3rd Parties there were 22 games in total that charted with Square being the top 3rd party with 8 titles, Koei Tecmo next with 5 and Konami with 2.

Square is still a big supporter and will be launching the biggest 2021 game for the PS4 that's been revealed thus far but at the same time if we are talking about 1.25M userbase by the end of next year(if my prediction ends up correct) - Final Fantasy XVI will experience a pretty substantial drop in sales in Japan yet again. While I don't think other Japanese third parties will be in a rush to release anything on the system unless it's Western focused.

In the meantime, Switch will have its best year ever in terms of 3rd Party support. With a pretty big chunk of exclusive content which won't be appearing on the PS5 - Monster Hunter Rise, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Rune Factory 5, BOND, Olive Town, SMT V - while a lot of games that used to be exclusive to the Sony ecosystem will embrace a multiplat existence. 

Overall PS5 will be a niche in Japan for folks that want to play the latest Western AAA releases and Sony's 1st Party & 3rd Party exclusives. We've been seeing how over the last two years the biggest 3rd Party Games World Wide COD and FIFA have continuously declined year-over-year - 2018 was the peak year for the PS4 due to Monster Hunter World, which really aided some Western games to see a huge result for example Black Ops 4 sold over half a million. Modern Warfare last year managed less than half that, and Cold War at best will be able to achieve a similar result.  FIFA is struggling to reach 50K this year, in 2018 it reached 125K on the PS4. Smaller 3rd Party games are also seeing declines Watch Dogs 3 just saw a further decline to the franchise. 

It's the same case for Japanese 3rd Parties especially for titles that are exclusive to the PS4 like Nioh & PES, they are going to be severely limited starting next year by the PS5's small userbase. 

The main thing Sony can do is cut the price of the PS4 and continue to push it in Japan, that would at least allow two SKUs to maintain the current level of sales without seeing declines.