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noshten on 14 November 2020
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Wyrdness said:
theDX said:
noshten said:

The one thing I'm unsure about is PS5 software, there is a possibility it's a lot lower due to scalpers and digital. Otherwise based on all anecodetes include Media Create, whether it's 100-150K doesn't change the fact that this will be a pretty sad launch for the Playstation in Japan. XB family will see a very slight growth compared to the X1, while the PS4 version of COD Cold War is going to see a decline compared to Modern Warfare last year. 

PS5 launch stock being ~100k has been repeated in the Bloomberg PS5 article so I'm going with that. It would also explain the low software sell-through we're seeing.

I've only heard bad things about the Xbox Series launch myself. I put in 30k but I must have misremembered Xbox One launch numbers because when I saw that they were 23,562 I started to regret my prediction lol.

Wait what 100k as in only 100k for a platform launch?

Yeah, I'm having a hard time imagining PS5 even surpasses half a million during 2020.

So PS4/PS5 sales this year might not even surpass 1 million combined. And things aren't looking like they will pick up for the PS5 next year, in 2014 PS4 managed around 970K launching in Feb, next year the PS5 might be around 750K. 

This has been my expectation for a while, PS4 was fortunate to launch while Nintendo was floundering between supporting the 3DS and Wii U. I don't think the PS4 lineup during it's first year on the market was better than what we know about the PS5 lineup for 2020/2021 the issue is that the PS5 actually is facing a dominant platform getting 3rd Party Support and the full support of all Nintendo development groups.

Below is the 2014 PS4 games and how much they sold in 2014:

  1. Knack (Sony) - 400.115(bundled)
  2. Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes (Konami) - 144.798
  3. Yakuza: Ishin! (Sega) - 129.307 
  4. Destiny (Sony) - 119.707
  5. Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two) - 107.524

Overall 47 PS4 games charted on Famitsu in 2014 with a combined sell-through of about 2 million, from Japanese 3rd Parties there were 22 games in total that charted with Square being the top 3rd party with 8 titles, Koei Tecmo next with 5 and Konami with 2.

Square is still a big supporter and will be launching the biggest 2021 game for the PS4 that's been revealed thus far but at the same time if we are talking about 1.25M userbase by the end of next year(if my prediction ends up correct) - Final Fantasy XVI will experience a pretty substantial drop in sales in Japan yet again. While I don't think other Japanese third parties will be in a rush to release anything on the system unless it's Western focused.

In the meantime, Switch will have its best year ever in terms of 3rd Party support. With a pretty big chunk of exclusive content which won't be appearing on the PS5 - Monster Hunter Rise, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Rune Factory 5, BOND, Olive Town, SMT V - while a lot of games that used to be exclusive to the Sony ecosystem will embrace a multiplat existence. 

Overall PS5 will be a niche in Japan for folks that want to play the latest Western AAA releases and Sony's 1st Party & 3rd Party exclusives. We've been seeing how over the last two years the biggest 3rd Party Games World Wide COD and FIFA have continuously declined year-over-year - 2018 was the peak year for the PS4 due to Monster Hunter World, which really aided some Western games to see a huge result for example Black Ops 4 sold over half a million. Modern Warfare last year managed less than half that, and Cold War at best will be able to achieve a similar result.  FIFA is struggling to reach 50K this year, in 2018 it reached 125K on the PS4. Smaller 3rd Party games are also seeing declines Watch Dogs 3 just saw a further decline to the franchise. 

It's the same case for Japanese 3rd Parties especially for titles that are exclusive to the PS4 like Nioh & PES, they are going to be severely limited starting next year by the PS5's small userbase. 

The main thing Sony can do is cut the price of the PS4 and continue to push it in Japan, that would at least allow two SKUs to maintain the current level of sales without seeing declines.