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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts October 2020 Discussion Thread

trunkswd said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The Switch vs. 3DS charts are so interesting. Switch looked like it was going to sell like the 3DS for almost 2 years just going by the data alone. That is what I call Switch in caterpillar mode. Now Switch is in butterfly mode. It came out of it's shell and now we are seeing it's true form. It just keeps flying higher and higher.

For me before the Switch came out the worst I saw it selling was in the 80 to 90 million range. Having Pokemon, Mario, Zelda, etc all on one platform was going to move a lot of consoles. 

Heh, well since around launch time I've believed it will be the best selling system of all time.  Most thought my prediction was impossible at the time.  Now, people see it as a possibility even if it isn't a sure thing.



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Switch vs DS Sales Comparison - Switch Closes the Gap in October 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide sales of the Nintendo Switch and the Nintendo DS.

Switch Vs. DS Global:

Gap change in latest month: 219,872 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 545,884 - DS

Total Lead: 6,579,512 - DS

Switch Total Sales: 67,966,935

DS Total Sales: 74,546,447

October 2020 is the 44th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch by 219,872 units when compared to the Switch during the same timeframe. In the last 12 months, the DS has outsold the Switch by 545,884 units. The DS is ahead of the Switch by 6.58 million units.

The DS launched in November 2004 in North America, December 2004 in Japan, and March 2005 in Europe, while the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

The 44th month on sale for the Nintendo Switch is October 2020, while for the DS it is June 2008. The Switch has sold 67.97 million units, while the DS sold 74.55 million units during the same timeframe. The DS reached current Switch sales in month 41.

The Nintendo DS sold 154.02 million units lifetime. The Nintendo Switch is currently 86.05 million units behind the lifetime sales of the DS.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Merely maintaining the size of the gap is already a success for Switch against the DS during these past six non-holiday months for both. I still expect Switch to fall behind by 10m+ sometime over the course of the next 18 months, but that's a manageable enough deficit to beat the DS in the long run.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Switch being so close to DS is amazing! That's very good company to keep when talking about hardware sales numbers.



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RolStoppable said:
Merely maintaining the size of the gap is already a success for Switch against the DS during these past six non-holiday months for both. I still expect Switch to fall behind by 10m+ sometime over the course of the next 18 months, but that's a manageable enough deficit to beat the DS in the long run.

That sounds about right.  In 2 months these two totals are going to be close, but then the DS is going to pull massively ahead on it's next respective holiday season.  But after about a year and a half from now, DS legs buckle pretty quickly.  Switch just needs to stay "close enough" for now and have decent legs at the end.  If so it will outpace the DS's total.



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RolStoppable said:
Merely maintaining the size of the gap is already a success for Switch against the DS during these past six non-holiday months for both. I still expect Switch to fall behind by 10m+ sometime over the course of the next 18 months, but that's a manageable enough deficit to beat the DS in the long run.

But....but.but The Cliff!TM


10m-15m deficit seems about right though, DS holiday 08 alone will see to over half of that. DS fell fast after holiday 09 so it's catchable, but it would be a hard task.



While I don't expect Switch to outsell the DS, just landing within 20 million of it lifetime would be an incredible achievement, and if Nintendo don't prematurely replace it, I've amended my lifetime Switch forecast to 130-140 million.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 18 November 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

While I don't expect Switch to outsell the DS, just landing within 20 million of it lifetime would be an incredible achievement, and if Nintendo don't prematurely replace it, I've amended my lifetime Switch forecast to 130-140 million.

Wow, what a day. First curl-6 adjusts his PS4 expectation down and now he increases his Switch expectation. He's now a believer that Switch will sell more units lifetime than the PS4.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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Switch vs 3DS and Wii U Sales Comparison - Switch Lead Tops 10 Million in October 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide Nintendo Switch sales with the combined Nintendo 3DS and Nintendo Wii U sales.

Switch Vs. 3DS and Wii U Global:

Gap change in latest month: 1,407,027 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 14,155,000 – Switch

Total Lead: 10,131,367 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 67,966,935

3DS and Wii U Total Sales: 57,835,568

October 2020 is the 44th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch by 1.41 million units when compared to the combined sales of the 3DS and Wii U during the same timeframe. In the last 12 months, the gap has grown in favor of the Switch by 14.16 million units. The Switch leads by 10.13 million units.

The 3DS launched in February 2011 (however, 3DS sales have been aligned to March 2011, since it only launched at the end of February in Japan), the Wii U launched in November 2012, and the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. The holiday periods between the Switch and 3DS lineup, however, the Wii U holiday is offset from the Switch.

The 44th month for the Nintendo Switch is October 2020, for the Nintendo 3DS it is October 2014 and for the Wii U it is April 2016. The Switch has sold 67.97 million units, while the 3DS and Wii U have sold 57.84 million units during the same timeframe. The 3DS and Wii U did not reach current Switch sales until month 58.

The 3DS and Wii U have sold 89.38 million units lifetime through September 2020. The Switch is 21.41 million units behind the 3DS and Wii U. The Wii U has been off the market for several years only selling 13.56 million units lifetime, while the 3DS recently ended production and the few remaining stock units left in stock will likely be sold out by the end of the year.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

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Switch vs 3DS and Wii U Sales Comparison - Switch Lead Tops 10 Million in October 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide Nintendo Switch sales with the combined Nintendo 3DS and Nintendo Wii U sales.

Switch Vs. 3DS and Wii U Global:

Gap change in latest month: 1,407,027 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 14,155,000 – Switch

Total Lead: 10,131,367 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 67,966,935

3DS and Wii U Total Sales: 57,835,568

October 2020 is the 44th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch by 1.41 million units when compared to the combined sales of the 3DS and Wii U during the same timeframe. In the last 12 months, the gap has grown in favor of the Switch by 14.16 million units. The Switch leads by 10.13 million units.

The 3DS launched in February 2011 (however, 3DS sales have been aligned to March 2011, since it only launched at the end of February in Japan), the Wii U launched in November 2012, and the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. The holiday periods between the Switch and 3DS lineup, however, the Wii U holiday is offset from the Switch.

The 44th month for the Nintendo Switch is October 2020, for the Nintendo 3DS it is October 2014 and for the Wii U it is April 2016. The Switch has sold 67.97 million units, while the 3DS and Wii U have sold 57.84 million units during the same timeframe. The 3DS and Wii U did not reach current Switch sales until month 58.

The 3DS and Wii U have sold 89.38 million units lifetime through September 2020. The Switch is 21.41 million units behind the 3DS and Wii U. The Wii U has been off the market for several years only selling 13.56 million units lifetime, while the 3DS recently ended production and the few remaining stock units left in stock will likely be sold out by the end of the year.

Dominating both its predecessors, combined. A common stick used to beat the Switch back in 2017/2018 was that since it replaced both Wii U and 3DS, it wasn't a success because it wasn't outselling the two combined. Well, boom bitches.

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

While I don't expect Switch to outsell the DS, just landing within 20 million of it lifetime would be an incredible achievement, and if Nintendo don't prematurely replace it, I've amended my lifetime Switch forecast to 130-140 million.

Wow, what a day. First curl-6 adjusts his PS4 expectation down and now he increases his Switch expectation. He's now a believer that Switch will sell more units lifetime than the PS4.

At the rate things are going, yeah, with PS4 slowing down faster than anticipated and the price cut I expected by now nowhere in sight, so long as Switch isn't cut short by a premature successor in 2021/2022, I can't see PS4 keeping its lead, not with the kind of momentum Switch has built this year and games like Monster Hunter Rise, BOTW2, and the potential for more revisions and price cuts ahead of it.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.