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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Let's Temper Our 2021 Nintendo Expectations

Signalstar said:

- Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury

- New Pokemon Snap

- Bayonetta 3

- The Legend of Zelda Skyward Sword 10 Year Anniversary HD

- Metroid Prime 4

- Tomodachi Collection Switch

- Xenoblade Chronicles XX

- Pokemon Divine Diamond and Power Pearl

- Switch Pro

- Switch Pricecut

Anything less and I will burn my Switch in the streets.

Wouldn't be so sure about the pricecut...



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Signalstar said:

- Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury

- New Pokemon Snap

- Bayonetta 3

- The Legend of Zelda Skyward Sword 10 Year Anniversary HD

- Metroid Prime 4

- Tomodachi Collection Switch

- Xenoblade Chronicles XX

- Pokemon Divine Diamond and Power Pearl

- Switch Pro

- Switch Pricecut

Anything less and I will burn my Switch in the streets.

Wouldn't be so sure about the pricecut...

That's the prediction you point out as outlandish???



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1gWECYYOSo

Please Watch/Share this video so it gets shown in Hollywood.

Next year is going to be an amazing year for Switch.  It will rival or surpass 2017 as far as game releases go.  Why?  Not only are there going to be several big first party games like BotW2, a Mario 3D World+ port, and a Pokemon remake, but there are also going to be getting more original third party releases like 2 Monster Hunter games, Bravely Default 2, Rune Factory 5, SMT 5, etc....  And there are going to be a lot more games that haven't even been announced yet.  In 2021, the Switch is going to be turbo charged.  (Well, except for Metroid.  That's not coming for a while.  Sorry Metroid fans.)

This is the actual narrative of 2021:  Several companies are releasing their new platforms like PS5, Series X/Gamepass, Amazon Luna, etc....  All of that is going to be overshadowed by the Nintendo Switch.  Those other platforms are launching into the Switch's peak.  It's already an unstoppable sales juggernaut and that is with this year being one of it's lighter years software-wise.  Next year is not going to be a light software year.  Everything that was pushed back from this year is coming out along with most of the stuff that had always been slated for 2021.  It's going to be an awesome year (but not for Metroid), and hardware sales are going to end up in the 22-26m range.  Switch owners won't care about those other platforms, because we are going to be too busy playing all of the new games coming out on the Switch.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Next year is going to be an amazing year for Switch. It will rival or surpass 2017 as far as game releases go. Why?

Why?



mZuzek said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Next year is going to be an amazing year for Switch. It will rival or surpass 2017 as far as game releases go. Why?

Why?

I think I answered this in the rest of the paragraph.  There are going to be a lot of games released, both first and third party.



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Hopefully a new Wario game of the type Wario Land or Wario World



If Switch doesn't deliver a great year for 2021, I'm going to assume that Nintendo thinks it's okay to abandon it's hardware mid to late gen. Gamecube had a pretty weak 2005 and an almost non-existant 2006 in terms of games. Wii's 2011 and 2012 were pretty barren as well. As Switch's 4th year 2020 has been very barren in terms of high new profile quality releases. If Nintendo has 2021 be another year with only 2-3 new high profile quality releases, then I'm going to assume that Nintendo consoles will always be front loaded, with little software support in the later years.

There's no excuse for 2021 being another light year though. BotW 2, Bayonetta 3, and Odyssey 2 should have been completed in 2020. And Nintendo has to have more than just those three games in the oven right now.

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 23 October 2020

Illusion said:
Nintendo is reactive. It really depends on how successful the Switch continues to be in 2021. If the Switch is still selling like hotcakes to the point where Nintendo is having trouble maintaining supply, then why on earth would they want to tap the well and increase demand more by delivering more AAA titles hastily? That said, if the PS5 comes on to the scene and starts decimating the Switch's sales, Nintendo will react by teasing and pushing out a lot of what is in their pipeline. What we see come from Nintendo in 2021 will depend heavily on how much the Switch's sales start to diminish in 2021.

If the Switch drops like a rock next year (which I highly doubt, but let's just say hypothetically) then I think BotW2 could be expedited along with possibly a few new IP's, remakes and probably a pro model of the Switch that has upgraded graphics using Nvidia's AI upscaling or something. Nintendo would probably ensure that BotW made heavy use of the new upgraded graphics and that it is a premiere title of sorts for the new release to encourage people to upgrade from their current Switch models. There would also be a ton of hype around the new Zelda.

But even if the Switch drops like a rock next year, it will take a lot before we see the level of innovation that came from Nintendo in the latter part of the Wii U era and start of the Switch era (the genre re-defining megatons like BotW, Splatoon, Mario Maker, Mario Galaxy, etc...). At this point, the Switch will ride on momentum alone probably until it hits 110-120 million at the absolute minimum regardless of what Nintendo does. This is unfortunate for gamers in some ways, though, since Nintendo only performs at the top of their game when they are absolutely desperate. When Nintendo is successful like they are right now, they basically go into sleep mode until their next platform bombs. I wouldn't expect anything but lazy remakes from Nintendo for as long as the Switch remains as successful as it currently is.

Yeah you beat me to it. Like I just said, if 2021 winds up being a weak year for Switch, I'm just going to assume that Nintendo intentionally plans on lowering software production mid to late gen.



Cerebralbore101 said:

If Switch doesn't deliver a great year for 2021, I'm going to assume that Nintendo thinks it's okay to abandon it's hardware mid to late gen. Gamecube had a pretty weak 2005 and an almost non-existant 2006 in terms of games. Wii's 2011 and 2012 were pretty barren as well. As Switch's 4th year 2020 has been very barren in terms of high new profile quality releases. If Nintendo has 2021 be another year with only 2-3 new high profile quality releases, then I'm going to assume that Nintendo consoles will always be front loaded, with little software support in the later years.

There's no excuse for 2021 being another light year though. BotW 2, Bayonetta 3, and Odyssey 2 should have been completed in 2020. And Nintendo has to have more than just those three games in the oven right now.

Yup.

People are criticizing me for ignoring third-party titles and first-party ports/remakes. I'm glad they exist because they give us more to play. Switch is doing far better with third-party than Wii U, and seems to have a better selection of third-party than N64 or GameCube as well.

But just look at Switch's top 20 selling games on the charts here.

Only three first-party Wii U ports (granted one is the best-selling Switch game), one cross-gen Nintendo game, two remakes, and one third-party game that uses Mario in a crossover. 

That leaves 13 sequels or new IPs that are first-party. New first-party games move Switch consoles, the ports/remakes and third-party games are an added bonus.

2020 has been a letdown for new Nintendo titles, and I'm just telling people to hope but not expect for 2021 to be much different. I would not put it past Nintendo at all to coast off of their evergreen first-party titles already released and not release as many first-party games for the rest of Switch's life as they should. This could be the GameCube and Wii all over again.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

I think regardless if Nintendo planned for 2020 to be what it is now, we should still consider the impact that the pandemic has caused throughout the year. A lot of the big games had to be delayed this year and we have already heard of reports of how dev teams had to push back their timelines for their upcoming projects. Even insiders have mentioned how projects under the planning/early stages of development were significantly affected. Heck, Mario’s 35th anniversary was likely going to coincide with the grand opening of Super Nintendo World and the Tokyo 2020 Olympics...though both were unfortunately postponed.

Not to mention, even Sakurai noted how his team are taking precautions while developing Smash DLC. That’s DLC!

In the end, whether you have high expectations or not, you should consider the timelines likely changing for some of these announced and unannounced projects for Nintendo, let alone the rest of the industry.