Microsoft being their #2 third party in Japan and games like Taiko and Fishing Spirits in the top 4 third party games really show Japanese third parties have been largely failing to capitalize on Switch's phenomenal success. Thankfully that looks to be changing with the likes of MH Rise, SMT5, and Rune Factory 5 all arriving soon-ish.

Totally agree curl-6,

3rd Parties really missed the boat thus far on the Switch. This has allowed indies and smaller studios and publishers to fill in the void especially digitally. As Chris said on Resetera - Human Fall Flat has probably sold over 1M copies on the Switch in Japan alone. 

• Bandai - late ports, certain games not coming to the Switch despite not being exactly demanding, at the moment Fishing Spirits and Taiko are their best selling games since 2013 in Japan
• Square - lack of stock for game launches on the Switch, still a lack of their biggest IP on the system - the only IP that has gotten adequate support is Dragon Quest and that's why over 2/3 of the sales on the system are just DQXIS, DQB, DQB2 and DQH the only other IPs to cross 100K are Trials of Mana and Octopath which were understocked by Square
• Capcom - basically didn't do all that much during the first 4 years of the system on the market, but next year they should become the #1 3rd Party publisher thanks to Monster Hunter which is a welcome change
• Sega - fading into irrelevance with Yakuza in Japan, Puyo, and Sonic being their only major efforts to create an audience on the system. By the end of this year, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 will become their best selling game on the PS4/Switch. Currently, Yakuza 6 with 367K sales is their top-selling game
• Koei Tecmo - outside of Nioh they have fully transitioned to the Switch this year, Age of Calamity will easily sell three times the amount of their top-selling game on the PS4/Switch, Atelier is likely to see further growth, Dynasty Warriors is getting a same-day launch on both ecosystems. At the start of the year, they didn't have much announced but they have changed things drastically over the last 6 months. This will definitely move them into the Top 5 within the Rankings
• Konami - as mentioned if PES and MGS make their way to the Switch at some point, Konami will basically become a top supporter of the system - right now these are the only two major IPs missing on the Switch. 

This Q4 is actually the first time we are going to see adequate support from third parties:

• Momotaro - the first third party Japanese game with the potential to sell >1M lifetime
• Age of Calamity & Atelier 2 - AoC is going to be the best selling game Worldwide for Koei and probably will surpass 500K in Japan, while Atelier 2 will see growth thanks to the multiplat strategy 
• Derby Stallion - this game is a bit of an unknown factor but you just have to look at its position on Amazon and it's the price to understand there is potential there
• Family Trainer & Taiko - Bandai actually has two family games coming out at the end of the year which should allow them to easily surpass 2.5M sales on the Switch. Still they could have had much more sales if they had embraced a multiplat strategy with same-day releases... 
• SMT III - On Amazon, it seems that the Switch version will be the top-selling version of the game, so by the end of the year, Altus will at the very least double its sales on the Switch and build an audience for SMT V. 
• Fit Boxing 2 - expecting Imagineer to easily have it's biggest launch in Japan and for Fit Boxing 2 to see growth compared to the debut
• Bravely Default 2 - the game is still dated for 2020, and it's pretty much the last chance for Square this year to capitalize on the much-expanded audience on the Switch

Overall this line-up is stronger than the combined line-up of third parties in 2017, 2018, and 2019 for the fall: 

• 2017: Sumikko Gurashi by Nippon was the top-selling 3rd Party game with 84K
• 2018: Dragon Quest Builders 2 & Fitness Boxing were the only two games to surpass 100K sales
• 2019: Disney Tsum Tsum Festival, Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 were the only games to surpass 100K sales

Just goes to show how 3rd Parties shit the bed pretty much for the first three holidays of the Switch, as outside of Dragon Quest Builders 2 & Mario & Sonic none of these games ended up selling over 200K

That can't be correct, Lots of people on these forums say 3rd parties are doing great on the Switch

Maybe they are talking about Asia and Western sales or indie/AA support...

In Japan support from some of the biggest Japanese 3rd Parties has been pretty underwhelming considering Switch's market position. 

Yup, 3rd parties are beginning to see the potential on Switch.

How much do you think SMT5 and Rune Factory 5 will do?

Those that released are doing very well. The problem isn't their sales performance, but the number of titles.

The publishers, possibly wary from the Wii U flop, were very slow to make the Switch to the new platform. As a result, the number of games from the AA/AAA publishers is quite low, though that's changing and we're getting a steady flow of new announcements now.

You can also see that well in the COMG! thread, where the PS4 had the majority of spots in the preorder chart until recently, but now, Switch finally took the lead, both in the number of titles and in the number of current total preorders per platform.

I really don't know, I've never been great at judging these things with series I'm not overly familiar with.

They may not be megaton franchises like Monster Hunter, but the very least they're notable Japanese exclusives for the platform.

MH Rise is the real star, that one will probably be the best selling third party game Switch ever gets; definitely in Japan, possibly worldwide.

good try shame your target didn't take the bait

And if we take into account the typical development cycle of a game of 3-4 years, its very, VERY likely that games that were started to be made when it was obvious switch was going to sell very VERY well are coming in next year.

combined with NINTENDO proabably coming off the same cycle next year for dev teams that developed games for year 1-2 switch games, next year has the potential to be one of the best years for switch yet in terms of software PLUS a proabale switch pro, might just potentially just overshadowing the ps5, at least in japan.

best case scenario, we'd have pokemon remake+BOTW2+metriod prime 4+DQ12+new 3d mario+MHR... in a single. year. thats easily double this year's software sales.

(1) Same here. I don't know much about SMT and RF sales wise but seeing all those Switch releases pulling series records, I could see growth here as well.

(2) No doubt.