Too many repliest just saying he is Japanese analyst or discussing size of Japanese market, when this is global sales projection.
I don't know if 200m is likely or not, but perhaps factors in it's favor might be perceived ability to continue to lower prices?
With discless an option (that would otherwise not decline as much as chips) and APU/SSD prone to process improvements, sure.
With or without Gamepass like service, Sony could offer installment plan like MS is, after all they already have their own bank.
Things do feel like they are leaning to something like Gamepass though, to me the Epic deal also makes sense in that light.
Maybe 200m is too big in the end, but not because he's Japanese, and not because of the Japanese market size per se.
It's not impossible. But if it were to happen it would be a massive shock to the entire industry, hence it's definitely not likely. It's an incredibly unlikely event that nobody in their right mind would bet a meaningful amount of money on.
Bet Shiken that COD would outsell Battlefield in 2018. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8749702