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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japanese Financial Expert predict that Sony will able to sell 200 Million PS5 (lifetime sales)

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will PS5 able to surpassed PS4 lifetime sales

Yes 14 15.73%
 
No 58 65.17%
 
close 15 16.85%
 
Not much 2 2.25%
 
Total:89

Does Japan love gigantic consoles all of a sudden?



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Marth said:
That is a suprisingly bad summary of the article.

Are you able to translate it?



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RolStoppable said:
Marth said:
That is a suprisingly bad summary of the article.

Are you able to translate it?

There are translation services out there.

While the artcle talks about PS5 and 200M it is more in the line of "this is the potential customer base that PS5 could reach thanks to the existing Playstation userbase since PS2 days and the potential of growth thanks to esports related titles and activities.

But also they predict 12M first year (up from 10M originally) and 20M second year for PS5. (with PS4 around 9M this year and 5M next year)

They also talk about a whole lot of other stuff like Switch and Capcom performance. This is not a PS5 exclusive article.



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i predict PS5 to sell less than PS4 but over 100 million. PS4 gonna end at around 125 million, so i predict PS5 sales to be in the 100-120 million range.
I would be surprised if PS5 outsell PS4 but not shocked, i definitively think it can.

For the 200 million mark, of course this sound crazy. But remember, even 150 million Switch years ago were crazy, and look at it now.

All i'll say is: i don't think it will sell this many units, but the market some times is unpredictable. I will not exclude any possibility. The opposite can happen as well, it could as well bomb and become the worst selling Playstation even worse than PS3, i just think it's unlikely.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

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What has this guy been smoking? I don't see any scenario where PS5 sales top 200m, not even if this is a really long generation of like 8 or 9 years as opposed to a shorter 5-7 year one. Even beating PS4 seems like a bit of a longshot to me.

Sony had just about every advantage possible this past gen with PS4, including their top rival in the gaming industry, Xbox, pinning their own foot to the ground with a crossbow bolt right out of the gate, and still PS4 is only heading towards maybe 130m lifetime, possibly less. The Japanese home console market continues to shrink, Xbox is in a much stronger position moving into the new generation than they were at the beginning of this gen.

Alot depends on exactly how long the generation is, but if the rumors are true and this is a somewhat short generation of about 6 years, I could maybe see PS5 hitting about 100-110m lifetime. Would take pretty significant growth in emerging markets to even beat PS4 imo. 

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 19 September 2020

A bold prediction. I am skeptical however.



200m requires a region breakdown... that would be like 70m NA... 30m Japan... 100m everything else.



I'm as excited for the PS5 as the next person, but this is laughable! I feel the PS5 will end up roughly around the PS4. Might end up third all time behind PS4 even but will face much more stiff competition this time.



Too many repliest just saying he is Japanese analyst or discussing size of Japanese market, when this is global sales projection.
I don't know if 200m is likely or not, but perhaps factors in it's favor might be perceived ability to continue to lower prices?
With discless an option (that would otherwise not decline as much as chips) and APU/SSD prone to process improvements, sure.
With or without Gamepass like service, Sony could offer installment plan like MS is, after all they already have their own bank.
Things do feel like they are leaning to something like Gamepass though, to me the Epic deal also makes sense in that light.
Maybe 200m is too big in the end, but not because he's Japanese, and not because of the Japanese market size per se.