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Forums - Sales Discussion - If Xbox Series S is 100$ cheaper than PS5 All-Digital, does Xbox have a legitimate chance of outselling PS5 this gen?

 

If Xbox Series S is 100$ cheaper than PS5, could Xbox Outsell PS5?

Yes, Xbox is the favorite to win 9 5.77%
 
Yes, it's possible 36 23.08%
 
Unlikely 60 38.46%
 
No chance 51 32.69%
 
Total:156
Intrinsic said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I think I need to see a few months of sales data first.  That's because Gamepass seems to be a major part of Microsoft's plan this time around.  This is one of the situations where the market could swing strongly toward the XBox or they might just reject it completely.  It all depends upon the details: console price, monthly fees, game selection, etc....

Gamepass is not the kinda thing that can give a substantial competitive advantage. That's because stuff like that can be easily countered. For sony to do something about it (by doing something similar) sony would need to see that its actually making a meaningful impact in sales trends. Till that happens, it would mostly be ignored by sony.

gamingsoul said:
The series s seems to be a big downgrade compared to the series x, I wonder how good Next gen games will run on it, meanwhile the ps5 digital is still a ps5.

It would play games in exactly the same way. Just at a much lower resolution. That's why they have the exact same CPU. The only thing I find funny about this is that this makes that whole most powerful argument MS have been pushing somewhat silly. The XSS is living proof that being the "most powerful" is completely irrelevant.

Funnier yet because the point has been made by Microsoft themselves.

oh you again eh? i wonder why i even bother with this but here i go : having a XSX run native 4k vs upscaling 1080p or whatever the XSS will run is still better, same experience bit still beter.
it doesn't change the power narrative at all, it just gives people options



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I think the small size is quite the selling point, looks really portable.



Intrinsic said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I think I need to see a few months of sales data first.  That's because Gamepass seems to be a major part of Microsoft's plan this time around.  This is one of the situations where the market could swing strongly toward the XBox or they might just reject it completely.  It all depends upon the details: console price, monthly fees, game selection, etc....

Gamepass is not the kinda thing that can give a substantial competitive advantage. That's because stuff like that can be easily countered. For sony to do something about it (by doing something similar) sony would need to see that its actually making a meaningful impact in sales trends. Till that happens, it would mostly be ignored by sony.

It depens on what you mean by "substantial".  Gamepass is the kind of thing that could give Microsoft an advantage for a whole generation.  Yes, Sony can eventually adapt, but they'd be at a significant disadvantage for the whole generation.  It is very much like Microsoft's internet service.  They were seen as having the better service during Generation 7 and so they gained a lot of ground on Sony compared to Generation 6.  Once the PS4 was released this advantage disappeared, because Sony had caught up.  Gamepass is the same thing.  If it takes off, then it can give XBox a significant advantage for the rest of the generation.



It will help in markets where Xbox is strong (NA & UK) but I doubt this changes the tides worldwide.

Just look at the current lifetime sales of PS4 & Xbox One. The gap in sales in NA/UK is nothing compared to the rest of the world.



In the US it's possible -- especially with the $25/month deal. Worldwide there's just no chance, I'm afraid.



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What will really matter is number of PS5's sold and multiply that by how much those games spend a year, on average. Then, figure out how how many do the same for Xbox, but also combine that figure with the revenue generated from annual GamePass subscribers. Then compare the revenue and profit from both.

If someone can figure that math out I will award you winner of the internet for the day.

I suspect Microsoft is going to "win" when you do that comparison, even though PlayStation will sell more (this is guaranteed).



I think they might be able to give the PS5 good competition in the N. America region. Personally I am going PS5 Disc Edition. If my XBONE decides to die, i'll eventually buy the XBOX Series S, if only so I can continue to play the very few digital games I have on the XBOX platform currently.



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shikamaru317 said:

I think MS would prefer to have a $150 gap between Series S and PS5 digital, since $100 might not be enough of a savings for some people to justify losing 6 tflops of GPU power, 500 GB of storage space, and half the storage speed compared to PS5 digital. MS is hoping that Sony will sell PS5 Digital at $450 and PS5 at $500 I think.

If Sony surprises with $400 for digital PS5, it puts Series S in a much worse position, though the $100 savings could still be enough to win over alot of the CoD/Battle Royale/sports game casuals, and maybe some Switch owners looking for a cheap console that can play next-gen multiplats since Switch won't be able to play them and Switch 2 might not release until 2023 or 2024. I do think the the $300 Series S might be enough for MS to take back the marketshare lead they once had with 360 in the US, and possibly the marketshare lead they once had with 360 in the UK, South America, and Australia as well, but they would definitely be in a stronger position with a $150 gap (or equivalent). They also need to keep working on improving their 1st party, more studios and more expansion at current studios, more AAA studios in particular. 

Agree with you. For me their Ace will be the paying plan with GP, much better than "Series S at 299" will be "Series S and instant library for 25/month".

Jranation said:
Most likely no. But Xbox Series is looking like it will do better than Xbox One. Could even double the sales of Xbox One.

That would mean 100M, don't think it will reach it.

gamingsoul said:
The series s seems to be a big downgrade compared to the series x, I wonder how good Next gen games will run on it, meanwhile the ps5 digital is still a ps5.

Nope. Similar performance to PS5 and Series X but at 1/4 resolution.

ArchangelMadzz said:
DonFerrari said:
It will do better than this gen, but being so much weaker and only let's say 100 less than PS5 Discless it won't really change that many sales... the paying option will do more on that front.

The fact that they're both discless would be really bad for XSS. 

At least if it had a disk drive there would be added functionality over the PS5 DE even though it was less powerful. But they'd have the same limitations but significant power difference and difference in capabilities. 

Yep, they had to cut all corners possible to minimize the extra loss to sell at 299 (hint, the GPU being 1/4 doesn't make it 200 USD cheaper to manufacture... and even taking half the SSD size and removing disc doesn't cover that cost difference, but the royalties will be more ensured without second hand market so it justify the bigger loss on HW).

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Intrinsic said:

Gamepass is not the kinda thing that can give a substantial competitive advantage. That's because stuff like that can be easily countered. For sony to do something about it (by doing something similar) sony would need to see that its actually making a meaningful impact in sales trends. Till that happens, it would mostly be ignored by sony.

It depens on what you mean by "substantial".  Gamepass is the kind of thing that could give Microsoft an advantage for a whole generation.  Yes, Sony can eventually adapt, but they'd be at a significant disadvantage for the whole generation.  It is very much like Microsoft's internet service.  They were seen as having the better service during Generation 7 and so they gained a lot of ground on Sony compared to Generation 6.  Once the PS4 was released this advantage disappeared, because Sony had caught up.  Gamepass is the same thing.  If it takes off, then it can give XBox a significant advantage for the rest of the generation.

Not the same as internet service... Sony already have the games, the gamepass portion copy would just be giving those games in a similar way to Plus (sure ensuring that it only works for the time they are on the service and you sub instead of Plus that you have access as long as you are sub even if the game isn't on the instant library). The XCloud part is MS that is running against PSNow, but sure MS can already launch it being better than PSNow and that is the one that can take a lot longer to make work right.

Dulfite said:
What will really matter is number of PS5's sold and multiply that by how much those games spend a year, on average. Then, figure out how how many do the same for Xbox, but also combine that figure with the revenue generated from annual GamePass subscribers. Then compare the revenue and profit from both.

If someone can figure that math out I will award you winner of the internet for the day.

I suspect Microsoft is going to "win" when you do that comparison, even though PlayStation will sell more (this is guaranteed).

Look at MS (not totally clear) Xbox department revenue and profit for 2019 versus PS on same period and you have your answer... 2.5 x the sale of HW, 2.5 the sale of SW for royalties, 5x or more sales for first party games, 2x the number of plus subs versus Gold generated a lot more profit than the extra revenue of GP.



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kirby007 said:

oh you again eh? i wonder why i even bother with this but here i go : having a XSX run native 4k vs upscaling 1080p or whatever the XSS will run is still better, same experience bit still beter.
it doesn't change the power narrative at all, it just gives people options

Honestly, I think you just like getting into spats with me even though what I am saying isn't really ever however you seem to take it :)

You are right, "it give options", but I am also right, it does change the power narrative. I never said it doesn't give options, and I don't know why it has to be one or the other. Why not both?

But here is why it changes the power narrative. You have a 12TF console for what is likely going to be $499. And a 4TF digital-only console for what is $299. So basically a high end and a low end "option" from the company that has made all its "official" marketing this far be about 4K@120fps and the most powerful console ever bla bla bla.

On the other hand, you have a PS5 digital console that is likely going to be $399 and a PS5 disc console that will likely be $449/$499. Both consoles are identical with the only difference between that one has a disc drive and the other doesn't. 

How does MS justify a 2.5x GPU power gap, 1.6x RAM gap, 1.6x storage gap with a $100 price difference between the XSS and the PS5D? While at the same time saying that for $100 more, you get a console that only has a 1.17x GPU power gap and disc drive between it and that $399 PS5D. The thing is, the XSS actually ends up making the PS5D seem to be of a better and higher value. 

Imagine you are a neutral.nd you walk into a store and want to get the best deal you can get. So you are going in for the "budget" next-gen consoles. It becomes clear that getting the XSS is like getting a watered-down Xbox. But getting a PS5D is just like getting the best PS5 but without a disc drive. That $100 you would save i you buy an XSS doesn't look like saving anymore, but rather looks like a stupid choice, because fora$100 more, you get something that is as good as the $200 more expensive XSX.

MS s giving choices, but so is sony. You don't have to take my word for it or argue with me on this, If I am wrong at the end of the day I will fess up to it. But wait and see, in time you will see what I mean. I have said it a long time ago, a $299 xbox, a $399 PS5 and a $499 xbox, is the last thing MS would want, that basically puts that $399 PS5 in the Goldilocks zone. Now if that PS5 is not $399 but instead $449? Then yes, this plays out in MS favor at the end.

No. Not at all. Gamepass is just what sony does with PS+ on steroids. Giving ou free games every month, and if you download them its yours forever as long as you have an active subscription.

Gamepass just builds up that library vs sony taking them off every month they add new games. But like with PS+, you still have to have an active subscription to access whatever you got via gamepass.

This is not about better services or anything like that, its simply about depth of software and a delivery method or service as this case may be. That's why this is easily adaptable. All sony literally has to do to match games pass, is have a library of games that are instantly available to you once you sign up for PS+, say all the games they have released on the service over the last like 4 years, and then release their first-party games on the service on day one so as long as you have the service you don't have to go out and buy the games. As I said, easily adaptable.

But sony will not do this because they don't need to do this. MS on the other hand does. And as I said before (feels like I am always repeating myself), if MS just came off a gen where they had at least one first-party game every year selling like 10M units (at least after a year n market), they wouldn't be doing it either.

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 08 September 2020

If the only difference is resolution between series s and series x then it would make a difference. Not many have 4k tvs or 4k monitors and with the option to lsyby us really good.