It will do better than this gen, but being so much weaker and only let's say 100 less than PS5 Discless it won't really change that many sales... the paying option will do more on that front.

none whatsoever

Absolutely no chance at all.
It’ll close the gap and it’ll be a closer race than the PS4/XBO was, but that’s not saying much.

That race will likely finish as follows:
PS4 - 125 million
XBO - 50 million

And THIS race will probably look like this:
PS5 - 105 million
XSX - 70 million

There’s going to be a lot of early adapters, more than usual for a new console generation thanks to that $300 Series S, and then when those consumers eventually want to upgrade, they’ll be much more likely to go to Series X than PS5c since they’ll already have an account, Game Pass, and be well familiar with the Xbox Series ecosystem at that point.

Microsoft still doesn’t stand a chance, but that’s ok, because it would still be an improvement over last gen and they would be on they can build off that momentum so that one day, they might be able to compete.

Mostly agree with you.

Something to consider though, is that both platforms will likely sell out of whatever they ship in the first 3-4 months. If sony ships 10M PS5s by March 2021  as rumored, then how many will MS ship? How many consoles are they willing to risk making in those first 4 months?

You can only sell as much as you can ship.

In US maybe a lot more competitive. Everywhere else no chance.

Most likely no. But Xbox Series is looking like it will do better than Xbox One. Could even double the sales of Xbox One.

I think I need to see a few months of sales data first.  That's because Gamepass seems to be a major part of Microsoft's plan this time around.  This is one of the situations where the market could swing strongly toward the XBox or they might just reject it completely.  It all depends upon the details: console price, monthly fees, game selection, etc....

The series s seems to be a big downgrade compared to the series x, I wonder how good Next gen games will run on it, meanwhile the ps5 digital is still a ps5.

The fact that they're both discless would be really bad for XSS. 

At least if it had a disk drive there would be added functionality over the PS5 DE even though it was less powerful. But they'd have the same limitations but significant power difference and difference in capabilities. 

Gamepass is not the kinda thing that can give a substantial competitive advantage. That's because stuff like that can be easily countered. For sony to do something about it (by doing something similar) sony would need to see that its actually making a meaningful impact in sales trends. Till that happens, it would mostly be ignored by sony.

It would play games in exactly the same way. Just at a much lower resolution. That's why they have the exact same CPU. The only thing I find funny about this is that this makes that whole most powerful argument MS have been pushing somewhat silly. The XSS is living proof that being the "most powerful" is completely irrelevant.

Funnier yet because the point has been made by Microsoft themselves.