I mean you can't even guarentee cony 'dominates' japan cause you can't leave out nintendo at his point here, since the switch is LITERALLY the only console selling there- as in a 40:1 ratio or something, the 3ds had a couple weeks where it sold better then the ps4.

its going to be sony's european and asian(outside of japan) dominance VS MS's american dominance.

I think the XBSS is only a timed solution to migrate users towards the next-gen games without spending too much (and get some new subscriptions to GamePass!).

What will happen is XBSS will be removed from the shelves in about 2 or 3 years, when PS5 and XBSX will get their first price cut there will be no more reasons to keep Xbox S on the market since it's not a full next-gen console being a watered down Xbox X and a burden for developers.

They could have kept the Xbox One X for this purpose but you know, It would be a mess with names, a mess with marketing (Xbox One X, Xbox Series X) :D

My guess is:
XBox Series S outsells PS5 all digital
PS5 (disc drive) outsells XBox Series X
PS5 disc + digital combined outsell XBox Series X + S combined

What are you talking about? the PS4 launched $100 cheaper then the xbox one.

If you think names is the reason the series S exist, you haven't been paying attention. 

The CPU in the one x would be a bottle neck to next-gen game development. overall the xbox one x is closer to the original xbox one than it is to the series S. It's not capable of running games and 120 FPS, nor does it have ray tracing, nor does it have the new custom SSD.

Yes... if by the quantity of titles available you see value in that there is no question there. But as I would always say with things like these, stuff like this is subjective. And is only an issue when people or anyone try and make them appear bigger than they actually are based on their preferences. 

Take for instance, you can say pay $15 for Gampass + XBL gold ($180/yr) and get access to a library of xyz games that would be added to each month as long as you stay subscribed, and I could say, pay $60/year for PS+ and get 4 free games every month for a total of 48 games every year. We can start talking about who or what offers more value. And thats where the subjective part comes in.

There are places I can go and get a LOT of food for $5, but that means nothing to me if I am only interested in food from the place that costs $10 but it offers less food.

YOu like most others (and this happens at the start of every gen) seem to think Gamepas (thats the form this phenomenon has taken this gen) is going to be a lot more than it's going to be. Because "on paper" it just seems to make sense. And will think its the best thing to happen since sliced bread. That's your opinion, and I respect that, I just don't agree with it. I think people care a lot less for it than you think, especially being that this is something that's been there for the at 3 years. Its not like its a new thing. And thats the pro backing what I am saying. What difference has it made in the current-gen thus far? And why do you now think that it would suddenly make all the difference with next-gen?

Why? any argument or case that can be made for GP for next-gen, can also be made for it for current-gen. Unless you really believe that GP couldn't sell XB1s cause everyone already had a PS4 and thus didn't need to buy a new console. And to that, I would say since GP started in 2017, sony has gone on to sell 50M+ more PS4s.

Extremely unlikely. This is not a case where something would sell more simply because it's cheaper. Brand power and popularity cannot be ignored in this case. Eg. A Oneplus typically cost half as much as an iPhone, but an iPhone will still sell 50x more than the Oneplus.

Which year did the XB1officially drop to $399 matching the PS4 price? (I can even tell you the month and what game was released around the same time for it). And are you aware that sine fall 2014, the XB1 has been in one way or the other, the "cheapest console to buy", its always been cheaper than the PS4 since 2014.

Hence my statement... I didn't say the PS4 was cheaper than the XB1 at launch. I said, "If the price was as important as some make it ut to be, then the XB1 should have been outselling the PS4 since 2014" (which mind you was the year it cut off Kinect and retailed for $399, in may 2014 to be exact)

Not unlikely at all.

My guess is that those who buy a xbox are much more likely going to pick the Series-S (~ 35 to 40%) over of the Series-X

Whereas I believe that Sonys all digital system will only play a minor role in their hardware sales ( ~ 15% to 20% )

and that the vast majority will buy the one with a disc drive. The rest is math:

Assuming a 2:1 ratio in favor of playstation in hardware sales, 0.3 ~ 0.4 of each system sold will be all digital for sony, and 0.35 ~ 0.4 for microsoft and

the averages are therefore 0.35 for sony and 0.375 for microsoft.

Because 0.375 > 0.35, microsofts Series-S will sell more than Sonys all digital system in absolute numbers.

And just to make it clear once again, this is my GUESS.

Also your example doesnt match the situation.

That's just not the reality of the situation. Like I said, Xbox One was way cheaper than PS4 for the majority of the generation and couldn't even come close to the Ps4's success. 

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying the Xbox Series X CAN'T do it, just that nothing in the last generation and a half indicates to me that this is likely at all. If price was as much of a factor as you say it is, it would have been a factor this entire last gen. 

So you believe that 40% will buy all digital cheaper Xbox but then only 20% will buy all digital cheaper PS5? Why?

Anyways, here is why I say its highly unlikely. Sony plans on having 10M PS5s shipped by march 2021. They will sell out of all that worldwide if they ship that many out.

Secondly, I also believe that sony is going to simply ship out more digital SKUs than the physical SKU, of those 10M shipments, I actually expect it to be like 6M in favor of the digital PS5 to 4M physical.

As for my example and the situation, let me put it another way. Even there wasn't such a massive power gap between the XBSS vs the P5D (for simplicity sake lets just call it a 250% cumulative power hardware advantage in favor of the PS5). Even if that advantage was only like 40%, a $100 more expensive PS console will still sell similarly r better than a $100 cheaper Xbox console. And that has a lot to do with brand power. Its like people forget that even while significantly more expensive than the 360, PS3 was still selling better worldwide each year for most years.

The XBSS doesn't exist in a vacuum, people are going to walk into a store and see that its $299 for a reason (hell they have that awesome looking $499 XBSX right next to it to remind them) and those people would also see that for just a $100 more (assuming the PS5D is $399) you get a lot more hardware for your money, and a PlayStation.

But this is all moot anyway, the people buying these consoles in the first 3-6 months, are mostly people that have already decided that is what they're going to buy as at right now. Question is, who do you think has the larger fan base, mindshare or loyalists?