| GamingRabbit said: Not unlikely at all. My guess is that those who buy a xbox are much more likely going to pick the Series-S (~ 35 to 40%) over of the Series-X Whereas I believe that Sonys all digital system will only play a minor role in their hardware sales ( ~ 15% to 20% ) and that the vast majority will buy the one with a disc drive. The rest is math: Assuming a 2:1 ratio in favor of playstation in hardware sales, 0.3 ~ 0.4 of each system sold will be all digital for sony, and 0.35 ~ 0.4 for microsoft and the averages are therefore 0.35 for sony and 0.375 for microsoft. Because 0.375 > 0.35, microsofts Series-S will sell more than Sonys all digital system in absolute numbers. And just to make it clear once again, this is my GUESS. Also your example doesnt match the situation. |
So you believe that 40% will buy all digital cheaper Xbox but then only 20% will buy all digital cheaper PS5? Why?
Anyways, here is why I say its highly unlikely. Sony plans on having 10M PS5s shipped by march 2021. They will sell out of all that worldwide if they ship that many out.
Secondly, I also believe that sony is going to simply ship out more digital SKUs than the physical SKU, of those 10M shipments, I actually expect it to be like 6M in favor of the digital PS5 to 4M physical.
As for my example and the situation, let me put it another way. Even there wasn't such a massive power gap between the XBSS vs the P5D (for simplicity sake lets just call it a 250% cumulative power hardware advantage in favor of the PS5). Even if that advantage was only like 40%, a $100 more expensive PS console will still sell similarly r better than a $100 cheaper Xbox console. And that has a lot to do with brand power. Its like people forget that even while significantly more expensive than the 360, PS3 was still selling better worldwide each year for most years.
The XBSS doesn't exist in a vacuum, people are going to walk into a store and see that its $299 for a reason (hell they have that awesome looking $499 XBSX right next to it to remind them) and those people would also see that for just a $100 more (assuming the PS5D is $399) you get a lot more hardware for your money, and a PlayStation.
But this is all moot anyway, the people buying these consoles in the first 3-6 months, are mostly people that have already decided that is what they're going to buy as at right now. Question is, who do you think has the larger fan base, mindshare or loyalists?
