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Forums - Sales Discussion - July NPD 2020: Switch 340K, PS4 150K, XB1 17k (rip)

Could these numbers really match with only a 2 % drop dollar wise?
It's a 7 % drop in total unit sales from 546k to 507k and the consoles should be cheaper on average, mostly due to the Switch Lite.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

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UnderwaterFunktown said:

Could these numbers really match with only a 2 % drop dollar wise?
It's a 7 % drop in total unit sales from 546k to 507k and the consoles should be cheaper on average, mostly due to the Switch Lite.

The calculation itself was taken from percentage, I don't know if that necessarily means that it equals those exact hardware numbers, as I am not sure if that was revenue based percentages or hardware based percentages. 

https://www.resetera.com/threads/npd-july-2020-ghost-of-tsushima-1-cod-mw-2-paper-mario-3.268056/page-10#post-42731205



 

UnderwaterFunktown said:

Could these numbers really match with only a 2 % drop dollar wise?
It's a 7 % drop in total unit sales from 546k to 507k and the consoles should be cheaper on average, mostly due to the Switch Lite.

Here's the source:
https://www.resetera.com/threads/npd-july-2020-ghost-of-tsushima-1-cod-mw-2-paper-mario-3.268056/page-10#post-42731205

Maybe there's a typo like -84% instead of -54%. That would help to make the revenue and unit numbers align.

People on Era are certain that the percentages are year over year changes for unit sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

Could these numbers really match with only a 2 % drop dollar wise?
It's a 7 % drop in total unit sales from 546k to 507k and the consoles should be cheaper on average, mostly due to the Switch Lite.

Here's the source:
https://www.resetera.com/threads/npd-july-2020-ghost-of-tsushima-1-cod-mw-2-paper-mario-3.268056/page-10#post-42731205

Maybe there's a typo like -84% instead of -54%. That would help to make the revenue and unit numbers align.

People on Era are certain that the percentages are year over year changes for unit sales.

Hmm yea I guess we'll have to wait and see if there's some correction or something. Certainly seems a bit odd.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

US supply constrained for NSW I would guess.

ACNH is running at 50% digital globally confirmed by Nintendo. Nintendo's reported numbers + Famitsu's retail tracking suggests the upper-end for Digital % in Japan is 30%. W26 retail sell-through = 5,001K and Nintendo shipped + digital units through Jun 30 is 7,150K, so using delta of 2,419K = digital = 30%. In reality this number is lower since there is inventory/transit to account for as well as MyNintendo shop hardware bundles.

That puts non-Japan digital share at about 60% to achieve the 50% ratio globally.

US July NPD had Paper Mario in the 300-450K ballpark for retail. TLOUII and ACNH followed right after that, so upper-end for those is Paper Mario minus one unit and lower-end is zero. TLOUII is physical + digital and ACNH is physical only. No idea how to ball-park a lower range since we have little detail about units/hints for software below those two, but I think we know that TLOUII last month was #2 opening all-time for Sony so that puts it at 1.9M in June. So 75-80% drop in month 2 would peg it at 380-475K.

If ACNH is right behind that in the 2-300K range, then with 60% digital it bumps up to 500-750K. So attach rate for ACNH vs NSW hardware is around 1.5-2.5x, which is way higher than what we see in JP for the same time frame. In JP, NSW sold 422K for July 4 weeks and ACNH 279K in the same frame. Add-in our 30% digital and its at 399K - close to 1:1 attach rate. US is somehow 50-150% ahead of that despite ACNH behing a bigger phenomena/driver in JP, which would suggest that HW supply is capping sales and lagging behind demand (which I suspect is currently enough to sustain ~150K weekly sales).



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RolStoppable said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

Could these numbers really match with only a 2 % drop dollar wise?
It's a 7 % drop in total unit sales from 546k to 507k and the consoles should be cheaper on average, mostly due to the Switch Lite.

Here's the source:
https://www.resetera.com/threads/npd-july-2020-ghost-of-tsushima-1-cod-mw-2-paper-mario-3.268056/page-10#post-42731205

Maybe there's a typo like -84% instead of -54%. That would help to make the revenue and unit numbers align.

People on Era are certain that the percentages are year over year changes for unit sales.

It has to be YoY, otherwise the numbers don't make any sense whatsoever.

And even then, I was under the impression that sales numbers were up for all the consoles so far this year in the US, so even then it's a bit hard to believe because the only thing that is actually down is the 3DS.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
RolStoppable said:

Here's the source:
https://www.resetera.com/threads/npd-july-2020-ghost-of-tsushima-1-cod-mw-2-paper-mario-3.268056/page-10#post-42731205

Maybe there's a typo like -84% instead of -54%. That would help to make the revenue and unit numbers align.

People on Era are certain that the percentages are year over year changes for unit sales.

It has to be YoY, otherwise the numbers don't make any sense whatsoever.

And even then, I was under the impression that sales numbers were up for all the consoles so far this year in the US, so even then it's a bit hard to believe because the only thing that is actually down is the 3DS.

It's year over year for the month of July, not year over year for year to date.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

It has to be YoY, otherwise the numbers don't make any sense whatsoever.

And even then, I was under the impression that sales numbers were up for all the consoles so far this year in the US, so even then it's a bit hard to believe because the only thing that is actually down is the 3DS.

It's year over year for the month of July, not year over year for year to date.

Hmmm, let's see...

This year:

Switch 340k
PS4 150k
XB1 17k

Total sales: 507k

Last year:

NSW = 252K
PS4 = 185K
XB1 = 109K

Total sales: 546k

Still expect it's a bit underestimated, PS4&XBO should be more expensive then Switch due to Pro/X on their side versus the cheaper Lite on the Switch side. I don't expect much more, but I think there's some 20-30k missing in this estimation.



Well, I was about dead-on for the Switch and PS4. The XBO though...

I mean, how is that even possible? That's a staggering drop. Is this a COVID thing, possibly? The outbreak caused a boom in HW sales (stimulus checks, bonus UI money), but did it also keep MS from restocking after possible depletion of stock from said boom? Or are they simply planning on ditching the XBO entirely in terms of hardware and going all-in on XSX/XSS?

Well, I have some other stuff to do here in a bit. I'll try to get some charts up sometime later today or some time tomorrow.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 17 August 2020

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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

01. Switch lite could be a very small part of Total Switch sales, wouldn't be the first time
02. There are other consoles outside of the big 3

Yall overthinking.

Thread update btw