Very strong sales for GoS. Sony may have a winner in Japan on their hands if they play their cards right.

Switch is basically selling through as much stock as they c an supply based on how much it increased despite a relatively average/‘meh’ opening for Paper Mario. Really makes me wonder just how high the baseline would be if supply wasn’t an issue.

Animal Crossing... What can I say? It just continues.

At the same time, RFA has some of its sales not tracked by Famitsu because they are through the official Nintendo Store in Japan.

For the prior fiscal period, Nintendo reported having shipped 890K to Japan, but on Famitsu the sales were 745K. A gap of 145K attributed to Nintendo's online store. At the moment I'm thinking we would see shipped numbers for RFA will be over >1.3M for Japan for the prior quarter(1.1M shipped to retailers / 250K from Nintendo directly).  

Nintendo has had issues with supply through-out nearly a year RFA has been on the market. We haven't actually seen how much its able to sell if there is enough supply out there. Around 100K units were unaccounted for Q4(Nintendo store), this climbed to 145K in Q1, but during Q1 we also had COVID, and Nintendo store was selling everything as soon as it arrived. During this time at retail, Ring Fit had it's slowest months due to low stock - selling under 10K because there was simply only so many units Nintendo was able to provide to retailers. Week 18(April 27 - May 3) we saw the first time Nintendo was able to provide more stock and gradually RFA has hit a baseline of around 30-40K shipped to retailers per week. This is why I think Nintendo sold at least 100K directly through their store this quarter. 

• Week 17: 12.351
• Week 18: 81.649
• Week 19: 22.740
• Week 20: 21.963
• Week 21: 11.746
• Week 22: 39.518
• Week 23: 29.487

Famitsu Ring Fit Adventure Quarterly Results

• 2019Q4: 495.639
• 2020Q1: 249.488
• 2020Q2: 328.387
• 2020Q3: 99.729

Nintendo Ring Fit Adventure Quarterly Results

• 2019Q4: 630K
• 2020Q1: 260K
• Prediction for 2020Q2: >430K
• Prediction for LTD: 1.32M

I think even 5.5m is too low for the floor.  Look at YTD sales at week 26 and double them you get 5.34m.  It's a pretty safe bet that Switch will sell more in the second half of the year than the first.  They don't need to release anything terribly impressive to get to 6m.  And if they have a really good holiday lineup, then it could be closer to 7m.

All of this assumes that they have enough supply to sell that much of course.  Going from 4.5m to 7m would be a hell of an upgrade in production.

We can look to the Lite as to how they could scale production to the levels needed to meet demand in Japan. These are separate production lines and they can scale the less complex one faster. 

They shipped 5M Lites in it's first two-quarters WW, and over 1.2M of those were sold in Japan.

Right now according to Famitsu, Lite is at 1.36M for the year compared to 1.56M for the OG Switch. At the same time last year OG Switch was 1.66M, so that's just a 100K difference. Even if we don't see a substantial increase in OG Switch sales until the end of the year(let's say they end up at 4M), the chance for high growth and 7M results will be decided if they can scale up Lite production line and see the increase from there. I don't think 3M for the year for the Lite is that difficult to achieve.

When we are talking about increased production this is one thing to really keep in mind, OG Switch Production could remain 20M for the year but Nintendo could scale Lite production to 10M and ship 1/3 of that to Japan to ensure there is ample supply there for the holidays. In that case, we would be looking at a Historic Holiday ahead, and a lot of companies that have a decent lineup for the Switch this year will be able to actually capitalize on this. 

I wouldnt be surprised. Even ClubHouse Games is doing better than TLOU2. 

Omg you're right, didn't notice. Damn lmao

Sucker Punch showing Japanese devs like Polyphony and Kojima how it's done.

Switch to PS4 hardware ratio of 25:1 this week.

Switch - 288 k software and 100+k hardware

Ps4 - 240 k software and 5k hardware

Switch - ok side software and huge hardware

Sony - ok side software and nonexistential sales hardware. 

Top 30:

https://gonintendo.com/stories/365602-japanese-software-sales-for-july-13th-to-19th-2020-top-30

1. [PS4] Ghost of Tsushima – 221,915 / NEW
2. [NSW] Paper Mario: The Origami King – 109,092 / NEW
3. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 71,897 / 5,186,283
4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 36,183 / 1,173,243
5. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 – 29,719 / 124,595
6. [PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 – 26,951 / 118,498
7. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics 20,586 / 235,891
8. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 10,031 / 3,035,989
9. [NSW] Together! The Battle Cats – 9,725 / NEW
10. [NSW] Pokemon Sword/Shield – 7,843 / 3,662,804
11. [PS4] Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris – 7,831 / 81,162
12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 – 7,104 / 3,493,303
13. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 6,253 / 3,758,033
14. [NSW] Minecraft – 5,659 / 1,444,331
15. [NSW] Super Mario Party – 5,190 / 1,491,649
16. [NSW] Dr Kawashima’s Brain Training for Nintendo Switch – 3,114 / 262,224
17. [NSW] Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 3,053 / 1,612,840
18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe – 2,794 / 865,217
19. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 – 2,578 / 938,858
20. [PS4] Remnant: From the Ashes – 2,520 / 26,670
21. [NSW] Indivisible – 2,479 / NEW
22. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II – 2,427 / 220,618
23. [PS4] Indivisible – 2,132 / NEW
24. [NSW] Luigi’s Mansion 3 – 2,072 / 664,768
25. [NSW] Fishing Spirits Nintendo Switch Version – 2,071 / 454,480
26. [PS4] The Last of Us Remastered (PlayStation Hits) – 1,955 / 109,023
27. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S – 1,708 / 535,885
28. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey – 1,675 / 2,110,990
29. [NSW] Code: Realize: Wintertide Miracles – 1,620 / NEW
30. [NSW] Human: Fall Flat – 1,619 / 11,375

NSW - 23

PS4 - 7