Go for a bold prediction, 40m.
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe shipped 24.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations? | |||
| Less than 30 million | 85 | 12.78% | |
| 30.0 - 32.4 million | 134 | 20.15% | |
| 32.5 - 34.9 million | 107 | 16.09% | |
| 35.0 - 37.4 million | 100 | 15.04% | |
| 37.5 - 39.9 million | 49 | 7.37% | |
| 40.0 - 42.4 million | 83 | 12.48% | |
| 42.5 - 44.9 million | 23 | 3.46% | |
| 45.0 - 47.4 million | 16 | 2.41% | |
| 47.5 - 50.0 million | 7 | 1.05% | |
| More than 50 million | 61 | 9.17% | |
| Total: | 665 | ||




Well, at this point I don't doubt it will beat Mario Kart Wii, which is impressive. It's going to reach the 40m easily.
I can see it doing 40+ million and to answer your bonus question, no, I do not see Nintendo releasing a MK9 on Switch.
They'll do what they did with Switch and release MK9 within Switch 2 successors launch window.
37.5-40 million with MK9 coming out in 2022.
If MK9 does not come out on Switch it will easily do like 45 million, though.
I voted for just under 40 million. I think it will surpass Mario Kart Wii's sales narrowly, but I DO expect Mario Kart 9 to come to Switch. As much as I feel it would be the perfect title to have out of the gate on the next console, I think with Nintendo planning to support Switch for years to come, it makes too much sense to have another major title like that release soon to keep momentum going.
I think it will pass Super Mario Bros. on the NES as the best selling Mario game of all time.
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