Or Super Mario , Mario Kart , The Legend of Zelda

I think it will do phenomenal! Better than Animal Crossing.
one MILLION copies!

For me, around 4 million.
Paper Mario never was a big selling point of mario-spinoffs titles. Personally i think it will do better than any of the games in the series, just becuase the lack of first party titles on the switch in the near future.

If the game will get good reviews combined with the "hunger" from the switch userbase for new first party titles, it can sell pretty good.

I dont think there is a chance for 10+ plus. Its a bit to late in the switch lifetime cycle.

I’m sure it can reach 6 millions lifetime.

Sticker Star did a 1.83 million launch, for an audience of 25 millions 3DS at that time (you have to note that the Japan sales were bad, because the game was launch just 3 days after Animal Crossing New Leaf).

It’s pretty obvious that Origami King will do a ~ 3 million launch, when we have nearly 60 millions switch now. Plus, there is absolutely no other game for the summer, another reason to help to boost launch sales.

Remember that the last Intelligent System game, FE Three Houses, did a 2.29 millions launch at the same time last year (for a base of 41 millions of Switch users). How some people can believe Paper Mario will sell 2 millions lifetime ? … It has no sense.
Don’t listen to the fanbase, which is always disappointed. This game will breaks a record for the serie.

It will be the best selling in the series due to the Switch effect.
I guess that means no proper Mario RPG for a while, with AlphaDream now gone as well :/

That's not true about no positivies in battling at CS.

Avoinding battles in Color Splash is going to led the player to have less powerful cards and no way to upgrade the amount of paint Mario can carry, locking you with the basics cards, having nightmerish and longer combats againts forced enemies/bosses, and an small amount of paint leading to a waste of time in search for it around the levels when Mario needs to explore them.

At least 5m

The Switch effect alone should make it the best selling entry in the series I expect; we've seen plenty of examples recently of fan displeasure having little impact on sales.

In theory and in practice.

Limiting yourself to hammer painted cards is the same as only using the same attack in 64 and TTYD. And yes, we don't need many different attacks in those games to go thru the games, outside of some exceptions that may requiere certain partners, just like CS needs those real things cards for bosses.