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I’m sure it can reach 6 millions lifetime.

Sticker Star did a 1.83 million launch, for an audience of 25 millions 3DS at that time (you have to note that the Japan sales were bad, because the game was launch just 3 days after Animal Crossing New Leaf).

It’s pretty obvious that Origami King will do a ~ 3 million launch, when we have nearly 60 millions switch now. Plus, there is absolutely no other game for the summer, another reason to help to boost launch sales.

Remember that the last Intelligent System game, FE Three Houses, did a 2.29 millions launch at the same time last year (for a base of 41 millions of Switch users). How some people can believe Paper Mario will sell 2 millions lifetime ? … It has no sense.
Don’t listen to the fanbase, which is always disappointed. This game will breaks a record for the serie.