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For me, around 4 million.
Paper Mario never was a big selling point of mario-spinoffs titles. Personally i think it will do better than any of the games in the series, just becuase the lack of first party titles on the switch in the near future.

If the game will get good reviews combined with the "hunger" from the switch userbase for new first party titles, it can sell pretty good.

I dont think there is a chance for 10+ plus. Its a bit to late in the switch lifetime cycle.