Okay i'm watching the Spawncast and..

Nate confirms Monday there is a direct coming. He says it is a pretty solid one but keep expectations realistic.
Should get announced tomorrow (Sunday). So we can pretty much expect a general direct.

Who is Nate?

There's a chance that they announce the Direct on Monday for the next day.

A really credible guy that works for Nintendo and has been an insider for a while on resetera. He is also on twitter and does podcasts from time to time.

Sounds like he would be fired pretty quickly if he puts himself everywhere.

Idk at what level he is at Nintendo, but he does remain pretty vague and just confirms rumors usually and doesn't reveal anything before it's out. He never does face reveal also. He is pretty legit. But even if he wasn't, many have had the same reports. 

Direct is happening on the 20th. I would remove the rumor in the title at the point we are at.

The point we're at is the same as it's always been, no proof or evidence, therefore rumor.

I've been ignoring this rumor for a while now but I keep seeing many comments here so I thought they confirmed it. But are they just going to shadow drop it like the mini direct?

Any examples of things he's predicted/leaked correctly before?  Any incorrect ones?

I would be really suprsied about Nintendo announcing new Direct on the day they released the second biggest game (to date), this year.
From the marketing point of view it would drive away some attention from the Paper Mario release to "new games" people expecting from Nintendo and this is not healthy for sales. I was sure, if the Direct was real, they will either fire it on Friday with some Paper Mario content or they will do it (also the announcement) definitely after launch -week or -weekend so it wont hurt the Paper Mario attention-focus.

If u have a product lanuching on day X, and you are expexting some "sales" on the launch window, you just focus marketing campaign on the product and do not fire or even tease new other products that can steal some attention from it. Its just a basic rule from the marketing product management.