I would be really suprsied about Nintendo announcing new Direct on the day they released the second biggest game (to date), this year.
From the marketing point of view it would drive away some attention from the Paper Mario release to "new games" people expecting from Nintendo and this is not healthy for sales. I was sure, if the Direct was real, they will either fire it on Friday with some Paper Mario content or they will do it (also the announcement) definitely after launch -week or -weekend so it wont hurt the Paper Mario attention-focus.
If u have a product lanuching on day X, and you are expexting some "sales" on the launch window, you just focus marketing campaign on the product and do not fire or even tease new other products that can steal some attention from it. Its just a basic rule from the marketing product management.
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