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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 24, 2020 (Jun 08 - Jun 14)

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Agente42 said:
tbone51 said:

It already has a “new” 2D Mario on it......

no. Mario Maker is not a 2d full-fledge Mario adventure. Mario Maker suffers to surpass one Mario 2d port. And that port is a B production, at the best case. 

A new AAA Mario 2d, with versus mode (8 player online), coop online, new modes, new powers and new world will be a behemoth in sales.

New super Mario bros U is a 2D Mario game that’s AAA. 

that said my post was a joke, cuz I was talking about NSMBU as it is a “New” 2D Mario game just like “New” Super Mario Bros 2 was :P



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xMetroid said:
Yea no tbh i think Ring fit will get DLC or new free updates since the game is blowing up. No need to do multiple ones cause i really don't think it has potential to be a franchise so quickly. I mean the game is quite expensive and people don't seem to be tired of it already. I do think maybe this can become a thing they use as an argument for next gen.

Nah there is no reason for that. That's like saying no need to do multiple Call of Duty's because one sells so well.

And yea RFA is quite expensive because it comes with the Ring. Obviously future RF games they can sell the game solo and the Ring separately since millions of people will already have the Ring.

Really it'd be a huge missed business opportunity for Nintendo to not take advantage of its popularity. They could easily add another 10+ million RF sales more than they'd get just from RFA by giving players more fitness games. Most people who buy and enjoy one fitness game would be happy to get more out of their expensive initial purchase by picking up more games to use the fitness product with. That's just common sense. They might not do yearly releases, since they've done a couple added features to RF this year, but hopefully they'll give consumers what they want and at the very latest have a new RF game ready for first half of next year, but this holiday season would totally make more sense considering that its very possible whatever Nintendo's major holiday title was gonna be might be pushed back to next year, so the more second tier sellers for holidays they have the better.

When you find a hit niche you don't wait a generation to capitalize on it as you suggest. There is money to be made and consumers to make happy, it'd make no sense for Nintendo not to take advantage of this. Like I said, it's a win-win for Nintendo and consumers who already paid extra to get the fitness product.



tbone51 said:
Agente42 said:

no. Mario Maker is not a 2d full-fledge Mario adventure. Mario Maker suffers to surpass one Mario 2d port. And that port is a B production, at the best case. 

A new AAA Mario 2d, with versus mode (8 player online), coop online, new modes, new powers and new world will be a behemoth in sales.

New super Mario bros U is a 2D Mario game that’s AAA. 

that said my post was a joke, cuz I was talking about NSMBU as it is a “New” 2D Mario game just like “New” Super Mario Bros 2 was :P

hehehehe... 



Agente42 said:
tbone51 said:

It already has a “new” 2D Mario on it......

no. Mario Maker is not a 2d full-fledge Mario adventure. Mario Maker suffers to surpass one Mario 2d port. And that port is a B production, at the best case. 

A new AAA Mario 2d, with versus mode (8 player online), coop online, new modes, new powers and new world will be a behemoth in sales.

I think the "new" was supposed to point at New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe, which wasn't new at all anymore at that point, being a 6 year old Wii U port

Edit: got it right, but didn't see the new posts afterwards...

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 21 June 2020

curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

You keep predicting that Switch sales will fall off a cliff, but that's not going to happen. Switch has a healthy software pipeline, so once the platform has reached its peak, it will stay on a plateau. At worst, 2023 is going to be first year of notable decline, so waiting until 2024 for a successor won't be a problem for Nintendo.

You have to remember that Europe and the rest of the world trail behind Japan and North America in adoption rate, so by the time the latter two decline, the former two will still have room for growth. That's why global sales will form a plateau.

I don't think it will fall off a cliff, just that it will have a normal decline, with this year most likely being its peak year, and that by 2023 it'll be time for its successor.

Ideally, you don't want to wait too long or until your system is already dead before replacing it.


NSW isnt following a trajectory like any previous console before especially a Nintendo one. Your reasoning is that it’ll peak this year, a year you still don’t believe it’ll get that much higher cuz of lack of games releasing? Then how are those delayed games going to do in 2021/2022? Beyond?

This Fiscal Year is selling extremely well, due to the pandemic, back tail of ACNH, no stock anywhere as well as demand thru the roof and shortages.

You still persistent on how NSW will do well this year, since we only have a few thing we kno about and no killer system seller dated or known this year. But it is it’s “Peak” yet if the software isn’t here what about next year? It’s on track to do at least 20mil this FY as of now.

here is another problem that seems to be apparent when talking about people wanting/believing NSW2 will come in or before 2023.

-Software: Oh Nintendo used up all of their biggest sellers, there are no more system sellers.

I can’t ever justify this enough, NSW is doing well with its evergreens. There has never been a system that can sell solely on its evergreens like NSW before it. Japan is my biggest supporter of this. Games that aren’t suppose to be on the list are selling on a top 10 or near top 10 despite being year or years old.

-Software again: Sequels, and more keep the NSW afloat. They don’t need every game to have the same exact selling power as the system seller before it. When BotW2 comes out or SMO2 or SMP2, it’s going to move a considerable amount of hw units. And then when it does, the evergreens does their jobs and keep selling to new consumers.

-NSW: I mean the most important, NSW isn’t gonna stop selling. If you think 2023 or before it is when Nintendo “Needs” To replace it. If you and whoever else does (especially people believing in 2022) then you guys expect a cliff instead of a healthy decline.

I mean do I have to post numbers? You believe 2023, some 2022. Y’all want That cliff to come next FY cuz i dunno how NSW is suppose to decline so bad lol. I’ll decline every year by 25-30% and keep FY21 at 19mil (lol) and it looks like this...

FY20: 21.03mil

FY21: 19.00mil

FY22: 13.5-14.0mil

FY23 9.0mil-9.5mil 

explain to me even with this decline and FY21 not peaking is NSW2 suppose to come in 2022 holiday or 2023 spring/holiday???

ill wait ;)



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Slownenberg said:
xMetroid said:
Yea no tbh i think Ring fit will get DLC or new free updates since the game is blowing up. No need to do multiple ones cause i really don't think it has potential to be a franchise so quickly. I mean the game is quite expensive and people don't seem to be tired of it already. I do think maybe this can become a thing they use as an argument for next gen.

Nah there is no reason for that. That's like saying no need to do multiple Call of Duty's because one sells so well.

And yea RFA is quite expensive because it comes with the Ring. Obviously future RF games they can sell the game solo and the Ring separately since millions of people will already have the Ring.

Really it'd be a huge missed business opportunity for Nintendo to not take advantage of its popularity. They could easily add another 10+ million RF sales more than they'd get just from RFA by giving players more fitness games. Most people who buy and enjoy one fitness game would be happy to get more out of their expensive initial purchase by picking up more games to use the fitness product with. That's just common sense. They might not do yearly releases, since they've done a couple added features to RF this year, but hopefully they'll give consumers what they want and at the very latest have a new RF game ready for first half of next year, but this holiday season would totally make more sense considering that its very possible whatever Nintendo's major holiday title was gonna be might be pushed back to next year, so the more second tier sellers for holidays they have the better.

When you find a hit niche you don't wait a generation to capitalize on it as you suggest. There is money to be made and consumers to make happy, it'd make no sense for Nintendo not to take advantage of this. Like I said, it's a win-win for Nintendo and consumers who already paid extra to get the fitness product.

My point was mostly coming for you saying they would do a yearly release or start doing so right now when the first game already has production issues and is no where near meeting demand. You don't add to a product you can't produce enough. The ring con is def the reason they have dev issues and you are saying they should sell some separately with a new game but like they can't afford to do that if they can't even make the ones to bundle with the first game.

I mean you're right for the fact they should release a sequel this gen but i think rn they should focus on getting the first one out there. Sequel can wait till fall 2021 tbh.



NS successor will be March or Holiday 2024 imo, the platform is in a unique position where it has a monopoly on one side of the market while competing in another which gives it far more freedom in certain aspects than other prior platforms from any company it's a Gameboy situation only now the platform operates in both markets. It's not even about sales performance alone at this point because by the end of next year the platform will hit 90m and the year after that it crosses 100m easy at which point even if it only started selling amounts of 10-15m a year it's already in sales territory that only the top 5 platfroms have hit the platform's position allows longevity in an unorthodox way.

They're going to play this out similar to the GBA situation only the won't be a DS this time to cut things short it won't be a 12 year gap like the GB to GBA but it will be a fair amount of time to let better tech become viable while the brand is being further cemented.



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

I don't think it will fall off a cliff, just that it will have a normal decline, with this year most likely being its peak year, and that by 2023 it'll be time for its successor.

Ideally, you don't want to wait too long or until your system is already dead before replacing it.


NSW isnt following a trajectory like any previous console before especially a Nintendo one. Your reasoning is that it’ll peak this year, a year you still don’t believe it’ll get that much higher cuz of lack of games releasing? Then how are those delayed games going to do in 2021/2022? Beyond?

This Fiscal Year is selling extremely well, due to the pandemic, back tail of ACNH, no stock anywhere as well as demand thru the roof and shortages.

You still persistent on how NSW will do well this year, since we only have a few thing we kno about and no killer system seller dated or known this year. But it is it’s “Peak” yet if the software isn’t here what about next year? It’s on track to do at least 20mil this FY as of now.

here is another problem that seems to be apparent when talking about people wanting/believing NSW2 will come in or before 2023.

-Software: Oh Nintendo used up all of their biggest sellers, there are no more system sellers.

I can’t ever justify this enough, NSW is doing well with its evergreens. There has never been a system that can sell solely on its evergreens like NSW before it. Japan is my biggest supporter of this. Games that aren’t suppose to be on the list are selling on a top 10 or near top 10 despite being year or years old.

-Software again: Sequels, and more keep the NSW afloat. They don’t need every game to have the same exact selling power as the system seller before it. When BotW2 comes out or SMO2 or SMP2, it’s going to move a considerable amount of hw units. And then when it does, the evergreens does their jobs and keep selling to new consumers.

-NSW: I mean the most important, NSW isn’t gonna stop selling. If you think 2023 or before it is when Nintendo “Needs” To replace it. If you and whoever else does (especially people believing in 2022) then you guys expect a cliff instead of a healthy decline.

I mean do I have to post numbers? You believe 2023, some 2022. Y’all want That cliff to come next FY cuz i dunno how NSW is suppose to decline so bad lol. I’ll decline every year by 25-30% and keep FY21 at 19mil (lol) and it looks like this...

FY20: 21.03mil

FY21: 19.00mil

FY22: 13.5-14.0mil

FY23 9.0mil-9.5mil 

explain to me even with this decline and FY21 not peaking is NSW2 suppose to come in 2022 holiday or 2023 spring/holiday???

ill wait ;)

If this decline happens exactly like this, then yeah I see holiday 2023 as the time for the Switch successor. How low do you expect hardware sales to be for the fiscal year that the Switch will be replaced in? Also for the Switch to truly be replaced in 2025, what does your predicted Fiscal year look like? 



At some point, you will be able to buy a Switch Lite for $99. Even when they release the successor - expect the original to be sold for at least three more years as an economical entry into the Nintendo ecosystem. The important thing for Nintendo is to use this opportunity to build long-lasting relationships with smaller studios and indie developers.
The Switch has proven that they only really need themselves, smaller publishers & indies to be successful.
In the end even if we dont see AAA -Nintendo's first-party output is enough to fulfill the needs especially supplemented by games like GolfStory, Overcooked, Stardew Valley, Hollow Knight, Human Fall Flat. Nintendo's main goal should really be to invest into helping smaller studios and indies, both in terms of marketing but also know-how, and resources.



MasonADC said:
tbone51 said:


NSW isnt following a trajectory like any previous console before especially a Nintendo one. Your reasoning is that it’ll peak this year, a year you still don’t believe it’ll get that much higher cuz of lack of games releasing? Then how are those delayed games going to do in 2021/2022? Beyond?

This Fiscal Year is selling extremely well, due to the pandemic, back tail of ACNH, no stock anywhere as well as demand thru the roof and shortages.

You still persistent on how NSW will do well this year, since we only have a few thing we kno about and no killer system seller dated or known this year. But it is it’s “Peak” yet if the software isn’t here what about next year? It’s on track to do at least 20mil this FY as of now.

here is another problem that seems to be apparent when talking about people wanting/believing NSW2 will come in or before 2023.

-Software: Oh Nintendo used up all of their biggest sellers, there are no more system sellers.

I can’t ever justify this enough, NSW is doing well with its evergreens. There has never been a system that can sell solely on its evergreens like NSW before it. Japan is my biggest supporter of this. Games that aren’t suppose to be on the list are selling on a top 10 or near top 10 despite being year or years old.

-Software again: Sequels, and more keep the NSW afloat. They don’t need every game to have the same exact selling power as the system seller before it. When BotW2 comes out or SMO2 or SMP2, it’s going to move a considerable amount of hw units. And then when it does, the evergreens does their jobs and keep selling to new consumers.

-NSW: I mean the most important, NSW isn’t gonna stop selling. If you think 2023 or before it is when Nintendo “Needs” To replace it. If you and whoever else does (especially people believing in 2022) then you guys expect a cliff instead of a healthy decline.

I mean do I have to post numbers? You believe 2023, some 2022. Y’all want That cliff to come next FY cuz i dunno how NSW is suppose to decline so bad lol. I’ll decline every year by 25-30% and keep FY21 at 19mil (lol) and it looks like this...

FY20: 21.03mil

FY21: 19.00mil

FY22: 13.5-14.0mil

FY23 9.0mil-9.5mil 

explain to me even with this decline and FY21 not peaking is NSW2 suppose to come in 2022 holiday or 2023 spring/holiday???

ill wait ;)

If this decline happens exactly like this, then yeah I see holiday 2023 as the time for the Switch successor. How low do you expect hardware sales to be for the fiscal year that the Switch will be replaced in? Also for the Switch to truly be replaced in 2025, what does your predicted Fiscal year look like? 

Imma answer that thoroughly soon with a new thread... :)