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curl-6 on 21 June 2020
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tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

I don't think it will fall off a cliff, just that it will have a normal decline, with this year most likely being its peak year, and that by 2023 it'll be time for its successor.

Ideally, you don't want to wait too long or until your system is already dead before replacing it.


NSW isnt following a trajectory like any previous console before especially a Nintendo one. Your reasoning is that it’ll peak this year, a year you still don’t believe it’ll get that much higher cuz of lack of games releasing? Then how are those delayed games going to do in 2021/2022? Beyond?

This Fiscal Year is selling extremely well, due to the pandemic, back tail of ACNH, no stock anywhere as well as demand thru the roof and shortages.

You still persistent on how NSW will do well this year, since we only have a few thing we kno about and no killer system seller dated or known this year. But it is it’s “Peak” yet if the software isn’t here what about next year? It’s on track to do at least 20mil this FY as of now.

here is another problem that seems to be apparent when talking about people wanting/believing NSW2 will come in or before 2023.

-Software: Oh Nintendo used up all of their biggest sellers, there are no more system sellers.

I can’t ever justify this enough, NSW is doing well with its evergreens. There has never been a system that can sell solely on its evergreens like NSW before it. Japan is my biggest supporter of this. Games that aren’t suppose to be on the list are selling on a top 10 or near top 10 despite being year or years old.

-Software again: Sequels, and more keep the NSW afloat. They don’t need every game to have the same exact selling power as the system seller before it. When BotW2 comes out or SMO2 or SMP2, it’s going to move a considerable amount of hw units. And then when it does, the evergreens does their jobs and keep selling to new consumers.

-NSW: I mean the most important, NSW isn’t gonna stop selling. If you think 2023 or before it is when Nintendo “Needs” To replace it. If you and whoever else does (especially people believing in 2022) then you guys expect a cliff instead of a healthy decline.

I mean do I have to post numbers? You believe 2023, some 2022. Y’all want That cliff to come next FY cuz i dunno how NSW is suppose to decline so bad lol. I’ll decline every year by 25-30% and keep FY21 at 19mil (lol) and it looks like this...

FY20: 21.03mil

FY21: 19.00mil

FY22: 13.5-14.0mil

FY23 9.0mil-9.5mil 

explain to me even with this decline and FY21 not peaking is NSW2 suppose to come in 2022 holiday or 2023 spring/holiday???

ill wait ;)

Sequels like BOTW2 won't sell systems like their predecessors because fans of that series already bought a Switch. Realistically, there are not many games, if any, that Nintendo can bring to Switch from here on out that will move hardware the way BOTW, Smash, Pokemon, or Animal Crossing did.

I know this was a meme used to downplay Switch in 2017-2019 but by now it's actually true.

It's not going to fall off a cliff, but no system can trend upwards forever, and what goes up must come down. A year 4 peak and a replacement in year 7 is a healthy curve and not at all a cliff situation.

Honestly, I'll just be happy if they don't go full idiot mode and replace in 2021/2022.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 22 June 2020