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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch version of Breath of the Wild shipped 17.41m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The Switch version of Breath of the Wild shipped 17.41m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 20 million 97 11.10%
 
20.0 - 22.4 million 283 32.38%
 
22.5 - 24.9 million 203 23.23%
 
25.0 - 27.4 million 142 16.25%
 
27.5 - 29.9 million 42 4.81%
 
30.0 - 32.4 million 46 5.26%
 
32.5 - 34. 9 million 8 0.92%
 
35.0 - 37.4 million 6 0.69%
 
37.5 - 40.0 million 5 0.57%
 
More than 40 million 42 4.81%
 
Total:874
Dulfite said:
If Botw 2 allows you to bring the same character, armor, weapons, hearts from your Botw 1 character then that will help the original games sales. If it forces us to start from scratch again, then 2 will hurt the originals sales.

That’s not how it works lol.



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Around 30 million.



I chose 25-27.4m in the poll. As for the bonus question, I think that with the direct sequel name "Breath of the Wild 2" and from what we saw in the teaser trailer, they will stay the course of the current foundation. I would note though that regardless of which direction they went in with Majora's Mask and Skyward Sword, both games shared a similar sales fate. Majora's Mask was released 4 years into the lifespan of the N64 and sold less than half of what Ocarina of Time had sold just 2 years earlier. Skyward Sword released 5 years into the lifespan of the Wii. And, the Wii was on a downward sales trend at that point. So, while Skyward Sword released on a more successful platform, it still sold little more than Majora's Mask having released even later in it's own platform's lifespan and even further removed from the previous Zelda release. The sooner that Breath of the Wild 2 releases, the better it will fare in sales. If it releases by holiday 2021, while Switch sales should still be high, it should have no problem bucking the trend of 2nd Zelda on same platform sales.



30m+

I don't think BoTW 2 is going to cut into the original's sales.

Hyrule was the star of BoTW and while there's plenty for the sequel to build on, it's difficult to see how exploration can be as good as the first without a completely new Hyrule. I just hope it's not a bunch of Yiga Clan Hideouts tacked on to the original.



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Mandalore76 said:
I chose 25-27.4m in the poll. As for the bonus question, I think that with the direct sequel name "Breath of the Wild 2" and from what we saw in the teaser trailer, they will stay the course of the current foundation. I would note though that regardless of which direction they went in with Majora's Mask and Skyward Sword, both games shared a similar sales fate. Majora's Mask was released 4 years into the lifespan of the N64 and sold less than half of what Ocarina of Time had sold just 2 years earlier. Skyward Sword released 5 years into the lifespan of the Wii. And, the Wii was on a downward sales trend at that point. So, while Skyward Sword released on a more successful platform, it still sold little more than Majora's Mask having released even later in it's own platform's lifespan and even further removed from the previous Zelda release. The sooner that Breath of the Wild 2 releases, the better it will fare in sales. If it releases by holiday 2021, while Switch sales should still be high, it should have no problem bucking the trend of 2nd Zelda on same platform sales.

The are some factors you've missed as both MM and SS required an add on to be played in the N64 expansion pak for the former and WMP for the latter, BOTW's template is also very different in its appeal to prior games as the aspect of doing what ever you want and not be punished or hindered by the game gives it appeal to people who were non Zelda fans this is similar to what happened with the appeal in GTA as GTA3 opened up a new path way which changed how the game performs commercially.



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22.5-24.9 million range. The game has sold super well, and will still sell (to varying degrees) new copies through 2025 at least.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

PS4: 130 mil (was 100 million) Xbox One: 55 mil (was 50 mil) Switch: 110 million (was 73, then 96 million)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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tbone51 said:
Dulfite said:
If Botw 2 allows you to bring the same character, armor, weapons, hearts from your Botw 1 character then that will help the original games sales. If it forces us to start from scratch again, then 2 will hurt the originals sales.

That’s not how it works lol.

"If"

I was being hopeful. One day I'd like to think games will be designed in a way so literally YOUR character (not simply the character) transfers in sequels, with all their skills and personalized items, all their conversations and decisions they've made, intact. Mass Effect did move us along quite a bit in that regard. Why Can't Botw 2 reference side quests I've completed, or how I defeated the boss, from the first game if the safe file is available on my Switch? I know it would take some coding, but it would be a really cool feature that would give a sense of continuity to the sequel.



tbone51 said:
Can’t back down from my bold prediction

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242384/bold-prediction-botw-will-actually-sell-35mil-lifetime/1/

35mil including wiiu, 33mil for BotW on nsw

Your prediction has a chance to come true. During the fiscal year ending March 2020, BotW's sales actually increased in comparison to the fiscal year before (from a good 4m to ~4.5m), so a slowdown due to increased age hasn't been happening. The game should do another 4m this fiscal year, bringing its total to ~21.5m by March 2021. It's one of the games that defines Switch, so it will sell throughout the system's life without any sharp dropoffs.

I picked 30.0-32.4m in this poll. That disagrees with the majority vote (naturally excluding the troll option of below 20m), but the majority casts their vote without opening this thread, so it's conclusion based on ignorance.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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It will just barely inch past 30m.



I really should take a look at my old predictions, most of them are probably all wrong.

I'll go with 25-27M since BotW2 would cut into its sales, but it all really depends on how long the Switch life cycle is

As for the bonus question, Nintendo really likes to do what they want, regardless of criticism, so I expect them to fall back to a more linear structure with it hopefully being more story driven. But since this game will definitely be compared with the original, they will most likely keep a large portion of the game to be open world



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