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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch version of Breath of the Wild shipped 17.41m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The Switch version of Breath of the Wild shipped 17.41m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 20 million 97 11.10%
 
20.0 - 22.4 million 283 32.38%
 
22.5 - 24.9 million 203 23.23%
 
25.0 - 27.4 million 142 16.25%
 
27.5 - 29.9 million 42 4.81%
 
30.0 - 32.4 million 46 5.26%
 
32.5 - 34. 9 million 8 0.92%
 
35.0 - 37.4 million 6 0.69%
 
37.5 - 40.0 million 5 0.57%
 
More than 40 million 42 4.81%
 
Total:874
tbone51 on 15 June 2020
RolStoppable said:
tbone51 said:
Can’t back down from my bold prediction

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242384/bold-prediction-botw-will-actually-sell-35mil-lifetime/1/

35mil including wiiu, 33mil for BotW on nsw

Your prediction has a chance to come true. During the fiscal year ending March 2020, BotW's sales actually increased in comparison to the fiscal year before (from a good 4m to ~4.5m), so a slowdown due to increased age hasn't been happening. The game should do another 4m this fiscal year, bringing its total to ~21.5m by March 2021. It's one of the games that defines Switch, so it will sell throughout the system's life without any sharp dropoffs.

I picked 30.0-32.4m in this poll. That disagrees with the majority vote (naturally excluding the troll option of below 20m), but the majority casts their vote without opening this thread, so it's conclusion based on ignorance.

Yes BotW gets this treatment despite being a single player game, it’s what halo is to the OG Xbox imo.

lol to your second part. Who picked 40mil? Need to see some explanations on that but first under 20mil xD



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Roma on 16 June 2020

I'm thinking it will do about 25m. Who would have thought a Zeruda game would ever reach these sales numbers :O

People predicting it will do 30+m are really over shooting it :P I wonder if these are the people that underestimated it before. I for sure did not expect it to do more than 15m LT



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(

Valdney on 17 June 2020

31 million.
I hope Nintendo will stay the course, but unfortunately they never do. I do not Trust Aonuma at all. He will mess this up again. His track record is a pretty consistent.



BlackBeauty on 17 June 2020

I accidentally voted 25 -27 million.

I’d say 30 million plus. The game will keep selling forever even more if the switch 2 being fully backward compatible lol



VAMatt on 17 June 2020

Game sales prediction threads should be limited to a single generation. Otherwise, you run into the GTAV problem (that will likely become more common, now that Rockstar has done such a good job with it) where the same game releases on multiple generations. How the hell can we predict sales when we don't know if a game will sell for 5 years or 20?



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UnderwaterFunktown on 17 June 2020
VAMatt said:
Game sales prediction threads should be limited to a single generation. Otherwise, you run into the GTAV problem (that will likely become more common, now that Rockstar has done such a good job with it) where the same game releases on multiple generations. How the hell can we predict sales when we don't know if a game will sell for 5 years or 20?

Well... it is. The poll question is how much it will sell on Switch. It doesn't include Wii U numbers, so ofc it wouldn't include future systems either.



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VAMatt on 17 June 2020
UnderwaterFunktown said:
VAMatt said:
Game sales prediction threads should be limited to a single generation. Otherwise, you run into the GTAV problem (that will likely become more common, now that Rockstar has done such a good job with it) where the same game releases on multiple generations. How the hell can we predict sales when we don't know if a game will sell for 5 years or 20?

Well... it is. The poll question is how much it will sell on Switch. It doesn't include Wii U numbers, so ofc it wouldn't include future systems either.

You're right.  I was making a more general statement.  This thread is done the "right" way.

To be honest, I didn't realize this one was Switch only.  



UnderwaterFunktown on 17 June 2020
VAMatt said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

Well... it is. The poll question is how much it will sell on Switch. It doesn't include Wii U numbers, so ofc it wouldn't include future systems either.

You're right.  I was making a more general statement.  This thread is done the "right" way.

To be honest, I didn't realize this one was Switch only.  

Yea that makes sense. Figured you'd probably just missed it.



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Agente42 on 17 June 2020
Shaunodon said:

Just below 30m. Sequel will cut into it's legs, but not that much.

Bonus: Breath of the Wild is the most successful games in the series by a mile. Arguably the greatest game ever. Even Nintendo aren't crazy enough to mess with that formula too much. From the trailer I'm guessing there might be more focus on narrative, so maybe the world and progression will be less free and open. But overall I'm still expecting more of the same with improvements.

Freedom is the key factor. Aonuma still doesn't know what Zelda's core is. Zelda focused on narrative is an anti-root Zelda by default. These are not Lolo's adventures, although Aonuma wants it so badly. There is no use waiting for someone who was unable to finish the original game, who likes the original game. BotW only came out that way, it seems, because they placed the puzzles in a controlled way in the shires and in the dungeons, they contained Aonuma's impetus, leaving the universe alone with the player to build his own narrative.



VAMatt on 17 June 2020
Agente42 said:
Shaunodon said:

Just below 30m. Sequel will cut into it's legs, but not that much.

Bonus: Breath of the Wild is the most successful games in the series by a mile. Arguably the greatest game ever. Even Nintendo aren't crazy enough to mess with that formula too much. From the trailer I'm guessing there might be more focus on narrative, so maybe the world and progression will be less free and open. But overall I'm still expecting more of the same with improvements.

Freedom is the key factor. Aonuma still doesn't know what Zelda's core is. Zelda focused on narrative is an anti-root Zelda by default. These are not Lolo's adventures, although Aonuma wants it so badly. There is no use waiting for someone who was unable to finish the original game, who likes the original game. BotW only came out that way, it seems, because they placed the puzzles in a controlled way in the shires and in the dungeons, they contained Aonuma's impetus, leaving the universe alone with the player to build his own narrative.

Trying to put a serious, cohesive story into Zelda would be about as stupid as taking the story out of The Last of Us.  That ain't how the series works.