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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will/Can the PS4 Outsell the PS2? - Analysis - Sales

The_Liquid_Laser said:
mZuzek said:

That sure sounds like a can't, then.

Pretty much.

I just don't like to say anything is impossible.  I could say 99% likely.  I think it is 99% likely that the PS4 will not outsell the PS2.

imo: i hate the word "can?" and should never be used for a prediction.

Of course it can, no one know what kind of madness can happen in the next years, who would have expect Switch to sell 1 million in a non holiday NPD just back in December 2019?

2020 was/is absolutely out of controll. and there is no way to know if in 2021 or 2022 even more crazy things will happen, to the videogame market, to the world in general, or just at Sony.

question should just be "Will PS4 outsell PS2?"



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I'm still shocked at the lack of PS4 cuts. I miss the days when a console could be bought by 99€ if you waited long enough.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

trunkswd said:
Darwinianevolution said:
I'm still shocked at the lack of PS4 cuts. I miss the days when a console could be bought by 99€ if you waited long enough.

Consoles have gotten more complicated with all the parts inside them. One thing that kept the PS2 price down was no HDD, so people HAD to buy memory cards to keep their saves on. 

Yes, but hardware becomes more and more affordable with time, so that should counter the increasing additions they have.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

trunkswd said:
Darwinianevolution said:

Yes, but hardware becomes more and more affordable with time, so that should counter the increasing additions they have.

It does become more affordable, but not like it once did. 

Yeah, but that's the thing. You'd think that the cheapest options would be slightly higher than that old price for the cheapest models now, but I can't find a new PS4 for less than 299€. That's quite a difference even with inflation and added price for extra features.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Although nothing is impossible, doing it would require perfect and perfectly timed strategy, a lot of luck and a lot of efforts, resources and money most probably not worth the result and surely best spent on PS5.



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The only way: Sony slashes the price. PS4 for $150 and pro for $250. Sony doesn't do that.



Agente42 said:

The only way: Sony slashes the price. PS4 for $150 and pro for $250. Sony doesn't do that.

Yup. If they ever do that, it will be in the last year or so of the PS4's retail availability. But it won't likely ever get a permanent price cut that low. I don't see the PS4 Slim below $200 or the PS4 Pro below $300.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Alby_da_Wolf said:
Although nothing is impossible, doing it would require perfect and perfectly timed strategy, a lot of luck and a lot of efforts, resources and money most probably not worth the result and surely best spent on PS5.

That's the thing, it makes no sense to focus on trying to push maximum lifetime sales of a system you're about to replace. Not when you can spend those resources and money on the new system that represents your future for the next 7 years. 

Last edited by curl-6 - on 06 June 2020

Kyuu said:
Won't come even close, as that requires PS4 to sell some 13 million more consoles in other territories to offset the massive deficit in Japan (assuming PS4 hits 10 million there). It also requires a very slow PS5 start, a much bigger price gap, and no backwards compatibility.

A perminant pricedrop to $150 might help it exceed 140 million, but 157~ million ain't happening.

Sony have the perfect storm in 2013. First, abandoned the Ps Vita for pursuit the strong point, stationary consoles. Second, the solid launch of PS4, only with minor problems all big videogame launch have. Third, Nintendo and Microsoft have big problems with the successors: Nintendo has two times: 3ds and Wiiu. Microsoft has disastrous e3, sony counters in the same E3. Now, Nintendo Switch is a leading platform, and have the same price point than regular Ps4. If sony reduced 50-100 for Ps4, Switch has the end of prices with low price point with lite and end with regular Switch.   It's a different spectrum of consumers but exists a big overlap(all three equipment is a dedicated game machine), for too many people, are good enough.  

The big price drop to regular PS4 to $150 is too risky and may bleed sony financial good status. Launch a new console and big price drop, at same time, is too risky. 



curl-6 said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Although nothing is impossible, doing it would require perfect and perfectly timed strategy, a lot of luck and a lot of efforts, resources and money most probably not worth the result and surely best spent on PS5.

That's the thing, it makes no sense to focus on trying to push maximum lifetime sales of a system you're about to replace. Not when you can spend those resources and money on the new system that presents your future for the next 7 years. 

Sony also wants brand power like Apple and Nintendo. Cutting the price permanently makes consumers perceive it as inferior and a weaker product. A $199 base PS4 would lead consumers to expect $99 Black Friday deals.