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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will/Can the PS4 Outsell the PS2? - Analysis - Sales

Farsala on 05 June 2020
curl-6 said:

Not gonna happen.

PS2 sold as much as it did in its later life due to factors like it being dirt cheap, releasing very late in a lot of developing markets, and PS3 stumbling out of the gate and so not quickly superseding it.

PS4 is in a totally different situation. Sony is showing no inclination to aggressively lower its price, its already been out in the developing markets for years, PS5 is unlikely to have PS3's struggles, and Sony have stated that they plan to move transition customers to PS5 faster than in previous generations.

All this suggests PS4 will not sell anywhere near as much after its replacement as PS2 did, and with PS5 likely less than 6 months away, another 45 million sales from here on out is simply out of reach.

I expect it will settle between 130 and 140 million lifetime; an extremely respectable total and the third highest selling system of all time. Better to celebrate this achievement than hold it to an impossible standard that will only lead to disappointment.

This.

Except you are a lot more optimistic than I. Based on the current situation, 125m is the maximum. An expensive PS5 would change my thoughts on that matter a bit.



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vonny on 05 June 2020

I feel the ps4 sales will stay stronger than the ps3 did simply due to the price of the ps5, there's no chance of the ps4 selling another 40 million form here



Wman1996 on 05 June 2020

Not happening. The price gap between the PS2 and PS3 was massive, and PS3 stumbled out of the gate.
There's still a lot of unknowns about the PS5, but most of what we know is promising. The next-gen transition should be a smooth one.



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3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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Ryng on 06 June 2020

Some years ago, this was dabatable.
Right now is almost impossible for PS4 to outsell PS2, even with PS5 being 500$.

I'll go for around 130 million lifetime.



wohufana on 06 June 2020

It seems that many of you forgot that PS2 sold multi-million units late on its life cycle in developing countries because of PIRACY. In the Philippines, you could buy a brand new PS2 console for $125-$150 and a pirated DVD copy of PS2 games at only 50 pesos ($1). Cheap price of games made PS2 a blockbuster console in Southeast Asia. But nowadays, you can not find pirated copies of PS4 games. A minimum wage worker here only earns 12,000 pesos (about $240) a month. So ordinary Filipinos who previously could afford to buy PS2 find the PS4 luxurious. Thus, only the people who belong to higher socio-economic class can afford to buy a PS4. With that, PS4 can never reach PS2's numbers.



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Leynos on 06 June 2020

At one point I think PS2 was sold for $80 in the 7th gen new. It might have been a sale but still, that's super cheap. I don't see PS4 going for $99 or esp $80 anytime soon.



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riecsou on 06 June 2020

Not happening. Unless PS5 release at $700 with a weak line. I think PS3 launch was like free advertisements for the PS2. For the first 2 years, I myself had no reason to buy a PS3.



wohufana on 06 June 2020

    But the article forgot to factor in "piracy" which contributed significantly in PS2's mid to late-life cycle surge in 3rd world countries. A price drop for PS4 will do nothing in these countries if the games costs their buyers an arm and a leg. Search a statistics that shows comparison between PS2 and PS4 sales in countries outside NA, EU, and Japan and you you will get a better picture.

    Last edited by wohufana - on 06 June 2020

    UnderwaterFunktown on 06 June 2020

    Like I wrote on the article itself I don't see a price cut happening since it simply isn't in Sony's best interest this at this point in time. Without that, simply getting close to the PS2 globally is off the table.

    I do however think that even without a cut the PS4 will outsell the PS2 in Europe specifically. Less than 10 mil behind and still pulling 100k weeks? Seems quite doable to me.



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    The_Liquid_Laser on 06 June 2020
    mZuzek said:
    The_Liquid_Laser said:

    Can it? Yes.
    Will it?  No.

    PS4 is going to be significantly behind PS2 in both Japan and US and there is nothing they can do to change that.

    That sure sounds like a can't, then.

    Pretty much.

    I just don't like to say anything is impossible.  I could say 99% likely.  I think it is 99% likely that the PS4 will not outsell the PS2.



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