I would be surprised if you PS4 passed 130. I'm stickin to 125ish.
Sell PS4 Pro for 199$ this september and it will happen, but Sony may be scared of a PS2-PS3 situation.
It can happen? Yes, but you need a lot of factors like high price of Ps5 and slash the PS4 to $199 slim and PS4 pro to $299.
But it will be finish around 135-140 million units. The legs compared to PS3 will be higher this time
Not gonna happen.
PS2 sold as much as it did in its later life due to factors like it being dirt cheap, releasing very late in a lot of developing markets, and PS3 stumbling out of the gate and so not quickly superseding it.
PS4 is in a totally different situation. Sony is showing no inclination to aggressively lower its price, its already been out in the developing markets for years, PS5 is unlikely to have PS3's struggles, and Sony have stated that they plan to move transition customers to PS5 faster than in previous generations.
All this suggests PS4 will not sell anywhere near as much after its replacement as PS2 did, and with PS5 likely less than 6 months away, another 45 million sales from here on out is simply out of reach.
I expect it will settle between 130 and 140 million lifetime; an extremely respectable total and the third highest selling system of all time. Better to celebrate this achievement than hold it to an impossible standard that will only lead to disappointment.
Last edited by curl-6 - on 05 June 2020
The PS4 will fall short, probably settling at less than 130 mil at the end of its life, so no...it will not come close to PS2 sales.
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yo33331 said:
You may be right, no one knows, and this is very probable outcome yes, no question. However sony can talks as much as they want for a faster transition, but when you have 500$ or 600$ console vs 200$ or 300$ at worst console you can't do fast transition, 200 or 300$ price difference will take at least 3 years at best to transfer most of those PS4 gamers, this is not happening just with one launch or one holiday, with the PS5 being 500/600$ I can see PS4 at 200 or 250$ been bought so many times for the next 2-3 years ... Which leads to my second point of your comment... (which I already said) There is no need for the PS5 to be slow selling console or to be as slow as PS3, for the PS4 to continue to sell well. It will just be okay, let's say some 10M first year and some 12-15M the next 2 years, these are very stable and good numbers for a console. In the same time PS4 can continue to sell this first year of PS5 - 2021 let's say 10M (example PS2 did 16M in 2007 and PS3 less than that, and their difference was the same it can be with PS4 and PS5 - 350$, PS2 was 149$ and PS3 the cheapest one was 500$) and for the next 2 years PS4 can continue to sell 6-7-8M when PS5 is doing 12 or 15M 2022 and 2023 Of course those are just some possible examples.. but once again, there is no need for one console to fail for the other to be selling good, they can both sell good at the same time, see PS1 and PS2 for example, PS1 for it's sales was doing OK sales numbers after 2000, and PS2 in the same time was doing very good. The only true fact or thing that can prevent the good sales for the PS4 that I can agree is the willing of sony to drop the price. The customers are there, if PS4 is at the right price, sales will be there. However what sony wants and will do ? Will they do a pricecut ? or 2 ? will they reach 199$ ? will they reach 149 or 99$ in 3-4 years time from now ? On this question pretty much depends the whole conversation and PS4's fate. |
If Sony wants a fast transition, their success over the past 7 years suggests they are more than competent enough to make that happen.
Nothing Sony has said or done suggests they're interested in keeping PS4 around for the long haul as a dirt cheap option. It's still $300 to this day, their actions speak loud and clear that their goal is maximum profit per unit, not maximum unit sales.
yo33331 said:
I can agree here, you have a point. But we can't know what is in sony's mind and long time strategies .. As for their success well pretty much everywhere you can see how everyone is talking about PS5 going to be 500 or 600$. Even sony said it won't be from the cheapest machines a.k.a. 299/399$ So there will be 200$ to 300$ difference in price, and not a word from sony can drag a person who is not hardcore gamer or family or kid with his mother to buy 600$ machine over 250/300$ one. Their success was because they priced PS4 at 399, and at the same time left the PS3 on 299$ But yes even with this difference in price between PS4 and PS5 if they leave PS4 on 299$ for the rest of it's live it will not reach PS2 numbers, it will not reach even maybe 140M ... Everything depends on those price cuts... and yes, they may be going after maximum profit per unit instead of maximum unit sales which in turn would give them more software sales for the console .. I think within the next 6 months to 1 year we will have much clearer idea of the way they are going with the PS4, because now it's only opinions.. |
Mind you, I'm not saying they'll never cut PS4's price, they may cut it to $250 for instance, I just can't ever see it reaching the $150/$100 territory PS2 did given Sony's behaviour thus far, namely keeping it $300 even after six years.
And I still think maybe PS5 could be $400. $500 seems more likely, but they hit the sweet spot this gen with the PS4 so I can see them wanting to repeat that price point if at all possible.
Can it? Yes.
Will it? No.
PS4 is going to be significantly behind PS2 in both Japan and US and there is nothing they can do to change that. They need to offset these market deficits by selling significantly more in Europe and the rest of the world. I highly doubt they will do this, but that would be their path if they wanted to break their own record.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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| RolStoppable said: I read it earlier. It was long, but didn't touch on the PS2's actual sales progression much. The PS4 is showing a clear decline from year 5 to 6 while the PS2 had had a stronger hold. The sole premise for the PS4 to have any shot at matching the PS2 is a completely unrealistic sales curve of consistent 20% year over year declines until the end of its life. Consistent 30% year over year declines are unrealistic too, but if that actually happened, the PS4 would finish under 140m. It was a rather weak analysis for a question where the answer is a clear "no." It should have included more sales data for the PS2 while at the same time explaining all the factors why the PS2 had a long tail. |
Exactly the sort of post I was looking for the moment I saw the topic.
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