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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will/Can the PS4 Outsell the PS2? - Analysis - Sales

 

Will/Can the PS4 Outsell the PS2?

Yes 3 5.08%
 
No 51 86.44%
 
Comes very close (under 10M) 5 8.47%
 
Total:59

Not happening. Unless PS5 release at $700 with a weak line. I think PS3 launch was like free advertisements for the PS2. For the first 2 years, I myself had no reason to buy a PS3.



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    But the article forgot to factor in "piracy" which contributed significantly in PS2's mid to late-life cycle surge in 3rd world countries. A price drop for PS4 will do nothing in these countries if the games costs their buyers an arm and a leg. Search a statistics that shows comparison between PS2 and PS4 sales in countries outside NA, EU, and Japan and you you will get a better picture.

    Last edited by wohufana - on 06 June 2020

    Like I wrote on the article itself I don't see a price cut happening since it simply isn't in Sony's best interest this at this point in time. Without that, simply getting close to the PS2 globally is off the table.

    I do however think that even without a cut the PS4 will outsell the PS2 in Europe specifically. Less than 10 mil behind and still pulling 100k weeks? Seems quite doable to me.



    Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

    2021 predictions:

    • Switch - 27m
    • PS5 - 15.5m
    • Xbox Series - 10m

    mZuzek said:
    The_Liquid_Laser said:

    Can it? Yes.
    Will it?  No.

    PS4 is going to be significantly behind PS2 in both Japan and US and there is nothing they can do to change that.

    That sure sounds like a can't, then.

    Pretty much.

    I just don't like to say anything is impossible.  I could say 99% likely.  I think it is 99% likely that the PS4 will not outsell the PS2.



    The_Liquid_Laser said:
    mZuzek said:

    That sure sounds like a can't, then.

    Pretty much.

    I just don't like to say anything is impossible.  I could say 99% likely.  I think it is 99% likely that the PS4 will not outsell the PS2.

    I think it's more like 70/30 that it won't or 80/20 something like that, if they do everything right it have a chance, however very doubtful if sony is willing to cut to 199$ this year and 99$ in 2022/2023. But yes, most of the things points out in PS2 favor in this battle ...

    As I said once, I am sure that everyone here if we had a time machine to get us back in 2007 or 2006 pretty much everyone would say that PS2 is impossible to reach 155/160M and .. well it did. :) Just saying.. there isn't impossible things. Just don't sign it out 100%.

    Last edited by yo33331 - on 06 June 2020

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    trunkswd said:
    wohufana said:

    It seems that many of you forgot that PS2 sold multi-million units late on its life cycle in developing countries because of PIRACY. In the Philippines, you could buy a brand new PS2 console for $125-$150 and a pirated DVD copy of PS2 games at only 50 pesos ($1). Cheap price of games made PS2 a blockbuster console in Southeast Asia. But nowadays, you can not find pirated copies of PS4 games. A minimum wage worker here only earns 12,000 pesos (about $240) a month. So ordinary Filipinos who previously could afford to buy PS2 find the PS4 luxurious. Thus, only the people who belong to higher socio-economic class can afford to buy a PS4. With that, PS4 can never reach PS2's numbers.

    As the article pointed out, the only chance the PS4 has of outselling or even coming close to the PS2 is with a price drop from $299 to $199 this holiday season and more price drops and deals after that. Basically everything needs to go right for there to be any chance, while the PS5 launch is as bad as the PS4. 

    Agree 100%



    The_Liquid_Laser said:
    mZuzek said:

    That sure sounds like a can't, then.

    Pretty much.

    I just don't like to say anything is impossible.  I could say 99% likely.  I think it is 99% likely that the PS4 will not outsell the PS2.

    imo: i hate the word "can?" and should never be used for a prediction.

    Of course it can, no one know what kind of madness can happen in the next years, who would have expect Switch to sell 1 million in a non holiday NPD just back in December 2019?

    2020 was/is absolutely out of controll. and there is no way to know if in 2021 or 2022 even more crazy things will happen, to the videogame market, to the world in general, or just at Sony.

    question should just be "Will PS4 outsell PS2?"



    2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

    In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

    I'm still shocked at the lack of PS4 cuts. I miss the days when a console could be bought by 99€ if you waited long enough.



    You know it deserves the GOTY.

    Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

    Darwinianevolution said:
    I'm still shocked at the lack of PS4 cuts. I miss the days when a console could be bought by 99€ if you waited long enough.

    Consoles have gotten more complicated with all the parts inside them. One thing that kept the PS2 price down was no HDD, so people HAD to buy memory cards to keep their saves on. 



    VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

    Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

    trunkswd said:
    Darwinianevolution said:
    I'm still shocked at the lack of PS4 cuts. I miss the days when a console could be bought by 99€ if you waited long enough.

    Consoles have gotten more complicated with all the parts inside them. One thing that kept the PS2 price down was no HDD, so people HAD to buy memory cards to keep their saves on. 

    Yes, but hardware becomes more and more affordable with time, so that should counter the increasing additions they have.



    You know it deserves the GOTY.

    Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.